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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wow :o

Weather Report Blizzard GIF

Jim Cantore Snow GIF by The Weather ChannelCold Weather Snow GIF by The Weather Channel

Best video ever. Crack up every time I watch it

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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This is boring, I know, but I want to clarify one thing from earlier because I feel bad.

I stand by my criticism of the weird tone the NWS took in their last two AFDs, but I did want to make sure that I clearly stated that I fully respect and admire the folks that do that job. It is thankless and extremely difficult that comes with huge consequences if (and when) a forecast is missed.

They are human, the tools are imperfect, and this region is unforgiving.

Their decisions on watches and warnings move government resources, effect schools and business operations, and set a general "vibe" for the entire region. A premature WSW can send folks flying to the grocery store, only to eat their extra cereal as it simply rains outside. On the other hand, if they're too scared to pull the trigger, it can leave folks stranded mid-travel, impact the safety of children, and endanger our most vulnerable.

While I took issue with the tone of the last few days, I do not envy the job they have nor do I take for granted all that they have to take into consideration.

We are sulking about some missed snow totals, but imagine if you had to deal with personally being bummed, but also having triggered dozens of unnecessary precautionary steps. It would make things 1,000 times worse.

Okay, now I can rest easy. LOL. You know folks at NWS scroll through boards like this and I just wanted to make sure I didn't leave any impression other than this one.

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Sean Nyberg

   IG: @SeanNyberg

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1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

This is boring, I know, but I want to clarify one thing from earlier because I feel bad.

I stand by my criticism of the weird tone the NWS took in their last two AFDs, but I did want to make sure that I clearly stated that I fully respect and admire the folks that do that job. It is thankless and extremely difficult that comes with huge consequences if (and when) a forecast is missed.

They are human, the tools are imperfect, and this region is unforgiving.

Their decisions on watches and warnings move government resources, effect schools and business operations, and set a general "vibe" for the entire region. A premature WSW can send folks flying to the grocery store, only to eat their extra cereal as it simply rains outside. On the other hand, if they're too scared to pull the trigger, it can leave folks stranded mid-travel, impact the safety of children, and endanger our most vulnerable.

While I took issue with the tone of the last few days, I do not envy the job they have nor do I take for granted all that they have to take into consideration.

We are sulking about some missed snow totals, but imagine if you had to deal with personally being bummed, but also having triggered dozens of unnecessary precautionary steps. It would make things 1,000 times worse.

Okay, now I can rest easy. LOL. You know folks at NWS scroll through boards like this and I just wanted to make sure I didn't leave any impression other than this one.

I definitely agree. And people don't remember the many times they get it right

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If the EURO bites or at least improves on the snow front for this Friday I'll definitely be more at ease-- right now we have the hot garbage fire that is the GFS as our only ally 😬

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, fubario said:

All my Oly homies...reprezent

Needs to trend north about 20 miles, that’s not asking too much! 😀

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Ya, Cliffs baby is not on board....

xww_msnow24.48.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.9jN

Wow that looks phallic

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just caught up on stuff. Thundersnow!!! Wow!!! Currently a wet non-sticking snow and a skiff on the grass from this morning. 34F with an east wind.

Tomorrow night is rapidly evolving into something potentially very special for the Seattle area. Fellow 'Sounders, this could be not only the event of the week but if all things go right, we may be looking back on it as the event of the season. Lots of moisture to work with, stable, reliable dynamics, plenty of time to squeeze it all out, the temperatures to support it all as sticking snow, and actual precedents to compare it to (unlike today!)

Of course it could all go south but the potential is great. I'm cautiously excited!

You are getting me hyped.

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If all else fails for north Seattle, it could very well be a bit snowy Friday! Lots to be excited about. Just about the best start to winter I could have hoped for.

Oh, and those insane lows the GFS is spitting out? Sure, discount them for the metro areas, but outlying valleys and the cool spots would have no problem matching or outdoing those numbers if a good snowcover establishes itself tomorrow night.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Definitely, glad I gave the wife a couple inches earlier.

TWF after dark!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Wow that looks phallic

Only one possible react for this post

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Only one possible react for this post

I'm counting on it

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You are getting me hyped.

I've seen this movie before. Actually reminds me of 1/10/17 for the PDX area in some respects, not to send the hype to a gazillion. But it shows the true potential.

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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A great feature of the Elon Musk 🤮 hardware mounted to my roof is that it has a built in heater in it so no internet disruptions! I would have been out there with my extend-a-pole trying to beat the snow off the HughsNet satellite dish by now just so I could keep posting! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If all else fails for north Seattle, it could very well be a bit snowy Friday! Lots to be excited about. Just about the best start to winter I could have hoped for.

Oh, and those insane lows the GFS is spitting out? Sure, discount them for the metro areas, but outlying valleys and the cool spots would have no problem matching or outdoing those numbers if a good snowcover establishes itself tomorrow night.

Really hoping that Friday night/Saturday thing works out for us

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36F, 0.19"/hr rain rate in North Seattle. Quite the contrast to Everett right now.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've seen this movie before. Actually reminds me of 1/10/17 for the PDX area in some respects, not to send the hype to a gazillion. But it shows the true potential.

I think Mark Nelsen was on the higher end forecasting 1-4" for the metro area. Some forecasters were going for T-3" or even less. Then I ended up with 13" of snow in 8 hours that lasted for a week with subfreezing highs and bright sunshine and very cold lows.

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1 minute ago, gusky said:

36F, 0.19"/hr rain rate in North Seattle. Quite the contrast to Everett right now.

On the edge here. Could walk 20 mins north into heavy accumulating snow. 34F with an easterly breeze.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Really hoping that Friday night/Saturday thing works out for us

Idk, the way last year and the year before went for most of us with unfortunate band placement and lows *just* too far north, I won't hedge my bets on a perfectly placed low that funnels just the right amount of moisture and keeps the easterly gradient at the same time 

  • Like 3

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

On the edge here. Could walk 20 mins north into heavy accumulating snow. 34F with an easterly breeze.

If I could walk 20min N to heavy snow, then I'd be running out the door right now.

  • Like 5

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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