November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[RentonHill]

Day 7. At least we have Cocaine Bear to look forward to

[TacomaWx]

39 here…max today was 41 early this morning might end up being the high temp today. 

[Deweydog]

The mood has soured a bit here as we close out fall 2022.

January is a month from today tomorrow…

[Hawksfan2008]

24 hour totals 

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

39 here…max today was 41 early this morning might end up being the high temp today. 

Temp just dropped to 38 here. Positive signs! 

[Skagit Weather]

Dew point dropping again, and temperature rising. 40/30 spread.

It's pretty funny how much warmer BC is predicted to be next week now on the Euro compared to what it was showing two days ago.

[xfkirsten]

Getting a little bit of hail action now...

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Dew point dropping again, and temperature rising. 40/30 spread.

It's pretty funny how much warmer BC is predicted to be next week now on the Euro compared to what it was showing two days ago.

The 12z run yesterday was the coldest for BC, but the polar lobe is moving east on this run. 

Looks like there might be a reload though coming from Alaska. We'll see 

[RentonHill]

Day 8 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 35 with chunky rain. Most of the snow has melted off the trees but still a decent snow depth on the ground.  Storm total of about 6.5” of snow. I’m honestly going to remember last nights snowstorm for a while. When I was outside I had never heard so many branches breaking from snow before. Some of them were so loud they would actually scare me because they legit sounded like gunshots. It was kinda surreal because I would hear snaps and cracks from branches breaking like every 15 seconds. One of the trees in my yard that still has most of its leaves had 4 branches fall from it last night. To anyone that missed out last night, hopefully you will join in on the fun tonight.

[RentonHill]

Day 9 

[Winterdog]

54 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks a little better for my area! Winterdog Jake, you might actually get some snow tonight! 

No biggy, I’ve still got plenty to work with.

[rsktkr]

26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX will pull off their coldest November since 2000. They are 43.6F month to date, 2000 was 42.8F

Also, assuming today doesn’t spike to 50 at some point, they should pull off an average high of 49.9 which is their first average November high below 50 since 2000 (they pulled off a 49.5 then)

The record warm October followed by a modestly chilly November makes for an interesting month to month temp drop as well. The average high in Portland dropped 22 degrees between October and November this year. We went from an average high of 71.9 in October to 49.9 in November. Not sure if any other consecutive months in their history have seen the average high drop from the 70s to the 40s but I’d imagine it’s rare, if not unprecedented.

This is the interesting stuff I come here for! Thank you! 

Now if we could somehow convince people to stop posting those 10:1 ratio snow maps. I have no idea what purpose those serve....maybe I'm missing something?

[smerfylicious]

So cozy. Figured I'd share my doorbell cam. Don't mind the recycling bin, it flew into my driveway sometime last night.

 

 

[RentonHill]

I dont want a reload. I want a different load. 

 

[RentonHill]

Day 10 

[smerfylicious]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

I dont want a reload. I want a different load. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

End of the Euro definitely says pattern reset to me. At least no signs of torching showing up yet, and the mountains look to continue to do well.

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 10 

Our atypical start to winter is going to get very typical.

[Snownerd3000]

I would be cool with a reset mid month to deliver the goods for Santa

[RentonHill]

November (23.5) looking to come in alongside 1955 (22.8) for average monthly temp in Winthrop. 1985 (20.1) maintains a comfortable lead. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

23 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

24 hour totals 

Shzt….. might have to pull up to Puyallup for the night. They looks to 5-6 inches 

[runninthruda206]

Some graupel near north udsit/Ravenna 

[RentonHill]

Snowfall - assuming no more today - will end up about 38 inches for the month, which puts it well ahead of anything in the last 50 years. 1955 and 1946 are 39-38" respectively. 

[Meatyorologist]

Sad to see the south trend with tonight's system. Gonna be a nowcast situation regardless but I'm grateful for the snow we got last night. 0.75" at my place officially.

Friday looks like a carbon copy of last night's storm but with more cold air and less moisture. May very well end up with the same totals when all is said and done.

[Deweydog]

39 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Euro coming in a little colder and drier for pdx this weekend. I’m no expert but I feel we have seen this deformation situation with moisture enhancing over the gorge outflow work out for pdx in the past. Maybe that’s what the gfs is banking on?

GFS gets modestly frontogenic Friday night with it’s probably overzealous take on low/mid level cold filtering in from the  gorge. Other than that is just a narrow, strong deformation zone magically extending out of the closed low.  

[westcoastexpat]

Received 6" of snow here in metro Vancouver. Beautiful sunshine today and bright snow everywhere. Love it! And looking nice and cold here tomorrow - should stay below freezing all day tomorrow and hit 15 F. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

From what I can see if anything is going to happen in Portland it is likely to be a west hills and east metro event only. 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sad to see the south trend with tonight's system. Gonna be a nowcast situation regardless but I'm grateful for the snow we got last night. 0.75" at my place officially.

Friday looks like a carbon copy of last night's storm but with more cold air and less moisture. May very well end up with the same totals when all is said and done.

Could see some places in king county getting snow especially further east but it’s starting to look like it’ll be pierce county southwards. Even with the south trend we should get something tonight. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Snowfall - assuming no more today - will end up about 38 inches for the month, which puts it well ahead of anything in the last 50 years. 1955 and 1946 are 39-38" respectively. 

My boss had a couple framed pictures from 1996 in his office. He lived at Alta Lake which is about 100 feet above river level and had about four feet on the ground by late December. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX is going to try with all it’s might for that 50 today.

[Phishy Wx]

30 and Heavy Snow

 

I guess we've had 6-8" ish. hard to tell, was windy earlier now calm.  I think the warm nose is on our doorstep

[gusky]

Lots of frozen precip reports across Seattle right now.

[Dave]

TWL's new rain gauge is getting a solid breakin period today. Will be interesting to see the results.

[Phishy Wx]

Just noticed they extended our WSW until 10am tomorrow for an additional 3-5".  If that plays out the GFS may get a marginal win.  Canadian was probably closest, Euro is now underperforming.  I think the warm nose is being somewhat shunted 

[awright-31]

Wonder when/if Pierce County and south get a WWA today.

[Nov1985]

45 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The mood has soured a bit here as we close out fall 2022.

January is a month from today tomorrow…

The mood here usually seems to be aligned to the latest model runs. Thus it shifts every day as the models write new fiction. Lots of potential this season. The best events usually materialize with 3 days advanced notice anyway.

[Cold Snap]

3 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looking at the models from yesterday morning, it appears to me that the 4/3km Hi-Res WRF was the most accurate (if anyone finds another more accurate model, please share). While snow totals were still probably a bit overdone in Everett (looks like most places there were in the 3-4") and a lot overdone close to Arlington, otherwise it seems to have picked up the snowfall spread pretty well. It has the sharp cutoff line between Downtown Seattle and North Seattle and has the complete lack of snow up in Skagit and southern Whatcom counties. It has the foot or so that fell in North Bend and the heavy snows that fell out near the Hood Canal. I mean it still gave me more snow than I saw, but I guess I could have seen a half inch if something else had happened.

This isn't that surprising because it does have the highest resolution of any model suite and was specifically catered to our climate/geography, but considering how poorly it normally does this was an impressive performance. I'll definitely be reincorporating it into my model watching routine and we'll have to see how it does for future events.

That looks like it only shows 2 inches for me. I got over 6.

[Blizzard777]

59 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The mood has soured a bit here as we close out fall 2022.

January is a month from today tomorrow…

 

[Cold Snap]

Getting snowflakes again! Currently 34.