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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Forum snow party road trip to the Tillamook Cheese Factory!!

Fuck that shitt. Rockaway Beach. Get Rob out there in his wetsuit doing some surfing on the armageddon ocean chops.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

I haven't been on here all day, how's The Wiz doinig?

I am guessing all is well this evening... he will have snow cover going into the cold period.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF... 24 hour snow total starting at 7 p.m. tonight through 7 p.m. tomorrow.   Looks like the snow will go well past 7 in the South Sound area.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-9950000.png

Shows a good 4-6" up here. Will be entirely precipitation dependent. I don't think tonight will provide much, but it seems like there could be decent snow shower activity tomorrow evening. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Shows a good 4-6" up here. Will be entirely precipitation dependent. I don't think tonight will provide much, but it seems like there could be decent snow shower activity tomorrow evening. 

I think that's easily the best crack at something for the valley floor down here. Could be a sneaky 1-2" in spots, just gonna be hit or miss.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF looks strange for Friday night and Saturday... but its been quite consistent now with this scenario.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1669809600-1670025600-1670112000-10.gif

ECMWF is sure consistent with the Friday night and Saturday period... every run looks basically the same now.    Slight shift north on the 18Z run but the same overall theme.

Can't remember precip moving inland like that and then completely reversing course and pulling straight out to sea.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1669831200-1670025600-1670112000-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is sure consistent with the Friday night and Saturday period... every run looks basically the same now.    Slight shift north on the 18Z run but the same overall theme.

Can't remember precip moving inland like that and then completely reversing course and pulling straight out to sea.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1669831200-1670025600-1670112000-10.gif

The euro showed that first and now the other models are trending towards it. It looks weird but I suspect the euro will be right and there won't be much going on from this Friday-Saturday.

One interesting thing on the 18z Euro is that the low dives south but then lingers off the OR/CA border and precip rotates back up north again by early Sunday from this same low.

image.thumb.png.3c585bb5c820d89e10435f5d4b3e2ef4.png

image.thumb.png.69be5bdab4ea3ae8aac775a8c190a8a8.png

 

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Well, any precip that does fall here tonight will definitely be snow, had to run an errand and a tiny light blue echo popped up and to the west zero clouds only where the cell was, just light dry snow. Temp already down to 32.  

Gonna be really snowy there soon!

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Gonna be really snowy there soon!

I have a feeling I might be asleep before it gets here unfortunately, the regional weather has made my job very busy the last 2 days and looks to be more of the same tomorrow, gotta be rested up at least a bit for it.

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3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The euro showed that first and now the other models are trending towards it. It looks weird but I suspect the euro will be right and there won't be much going on from this Friday-Saturday.

One interesting thing on the 18z Euro is that the low dives south but then lingers off the OR/CA border and precip rotates back up north again by early Sunday from this same low.

 

Yeah we should have a couple bites at the apple. Just too bad it's not a very good apple. The season is young and I've spent some nino hell years waiting up until 3 a.m. just to watch a snow to rain mix occur for 30 minutes so the idea of a little daytime snowglobe doesn't seem so bad, especially considering ENSO moving forward.

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is sure consistent with the Friday night and Saturday period... every run looks basically the same now.    Slight shift north on the 18Z run but the same overall theme.

Can't remember precip moving inland like that and then completely reversing course and pulling straight out to sea.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1669831200-1670025600-1670112000-10.gif

This is a weird pattern in general. Not sure what the closest comp would be historically.

A forum for the end of the world.

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