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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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It cannot be denied that this is a pretty D**n strong mean 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_27.png

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_27.png

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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🍁🌧 Welcome to November 🦃🌬
11/1/22 6:22 AM 6z GEFS Re-cap
 
Wow! Just woke up to feed my cat. 6z GEFS were the coldest ensembles yet. The block over Alaska looks really good and if the trough digs just a bit more PDX even will see modified arctic air! 850mb ensemble mean for PDX now bottoms out near -5c with a large cluster of members colder yet to -10c. Seattle -6.5c with a cluster to -12c. More impressively Moses Lake mean temp dips to -11.5c with a large cluster of members pulling arctic air into the Columbia Basin/Gorge.
 
Surface Temps for PDX and Seattle even dip below freezing at times and the Gorge/Columbia Basin down into the teens! The 850mb and Surface Temp anomaly are several notches colder than 00z. Even the snowfall map paints widespread snow for the lowlands 2-4" for PDX metro and 3-5" for Puget Sound. This looks real good, but I do caution that the GFS is known for being both too fast and too aggressive with cold air. We shall see though! It's amazing to see this regardless on an ensemble mean for early November! C'MON!!!!
500h_anom-mean.na.png
gfs-seattle-us-475n-1225(2).png
gfs-moses-lake-us-47n-11(9).png
850tw-mean.us_nw.png
sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_nw.png
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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If this cold snap comes to pass, this will be the weirdest Fall in PNW history by a decent margin.

I guess it's kind of similar to 2014. August September October were record warm then we had the cold snap in early November. Though this fall was warmer and smokier

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2 minutes ago, MWG said:

Looks like it didn't start raining till about 5am and right now it's just pouring! Currently 45F

It’s been fun here. Y’all are in for a treat. SW Oregon folks gotta stick together!! Big winter coming up!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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28 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
🍁🌧 Welcome to November 🦃🌬
11/1/22 6:22 AM 6z GEFS Re-cap
 
Wow! Just woke up to feed my cat. 6z GEFS were the coldest ensembles yet. The block over Alaska looks really good and if the trough digs just a bit more PDX even will see modified arctic air! 850mb ensemble mean for PDX now bottoms out near -5c with a large cluster of members colder yet to -10c. Seattle -6.5c with a cluster to -12c. More impressively Moses Lake mean temp dips to -11.5c with a large cluster of members pulling arctic air into the Columbia Basin/Gorge.
 
Surface Temps for PDX and Seattle even dip below freezing at times and the Gorge/Columbia Basin down into the teens! The 850mb and Surface Temp anomaly are several notches colder than 00z. Even the snowfall map paints widespread snow for the lowlands 2-4" for PDX metro and 3-5" for Puget Sound. This looks real good, but I do caution that the GFS is known for being both too fast and too aggressive with cold air. We shall see though! It's amazing to see this regardless on an ensemble mean for early November! C'MON!!!!
500h_anom-mean.na.png
gfs-seattle-us-475n-1225(2).png
gfs-moses-lake-us-47n-11(9).png
850tw-mean.us_nw.png
sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_nw.png

Rex Block reigns supreme.

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

My wife is hopefully peacefully under the knife. 2nd time in a few months. Hopefully your husband likes the cold and snow like we do. M’lady is marginal on it unless she’s safe at home.

He does, I hope all is well with your wife 

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3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

He does, I hope all is well with your wife 

Thank you. I haven’t told her about the impending hammer drop so all is well on that front so far.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

My wife is hopefully peacefully under the knife. 2nd time in a few months. Hopefully your husband likes the cold and snow like we do. M’lady is marginal on it unless she’s safe at home.

I hope all goes well, sending positive vibes your way.  We are waiting for insurance to do their thing before scheduling my wife's surgery.  Hoping to get her in before Thanksgiving.

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4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I hope all goes well, sending positive vibes your way.  We are waiting for insurance to do their thing before scheduling my wife's surgery.  Hoping to get her in before Thanksgiving.

Thank you. It’s so frustrating waiting for one’s turn on the “conveyor belt” but I was very lucky that the cost of a house (in 2018 lol) was put into my head with 2 brain surgeries so I’m forever grateful to whatever oligarch approved my procedures. And my wife’s insurance plan thru her work is great.

I hope y’all’s gets set up soon!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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52 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If this cold snap comes to pass, this will be the weirdest Fall in PNW history by a decent margin.

Its already up there near the top... but a region-wide snowstorm in early November would be the icing on the cake.  Sort of feels like we should start expecting extremes now in a year of extreme weather.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I remember following that. There was more snow then forecasted. It was dumping snow and windy, it was crazy 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html?m=0

I was living in PDX at the time and remember reading Cliff's nowcast of that front and the low that developed off the Olympics if i recall which was what enhanced the precip rates. What a cool event. 

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54 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I guess it's kind of similar to 2014. August September October were record warm then we had the cold snap in early November. Though this fall was warmer and smokier

The models are showing us getting more snow in the next 2 weeks then we had for the entire winter of 2014-2015! 

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Well. How convenient that the models are showing this for literally the week I move. On one hand, yay cold and snow! On the other, I have to drive 1000 miles that week.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

This is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean.

06z GEFS 850mb temp anoms.

2D76F240-D783-44D1-8CDB-F627AA839BE7.gif

Hope you’re ok my man. We missed you!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Thanks brother. Missed you all too. Have had a lot going on but I’m back now. 🍻 

Massive winter incoming!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its already up there near the top... but a region-wide snowstorm in early November would be the icing on the cake.  Sort of feels like we should start expecting extremes now in a year of extreme weather.   

Icee what you did there.....

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Massive winter incoming!!

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

Hopefully can dig a little better.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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We ended October with 4.43” of rain. About 70% of average. Began November with 0.70”.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

1DE46E8A-E61C-4D52-9D49-F5376F5E4C44.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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