TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Totally dry here this morning... no rain overnight. Looks like the next couple days are basically dry up here. SE WA has been under that moisture band since yesterday and its still going strong. Its been raining in Pullman for about 36 hours straight now. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute! 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. New job or did your office move? 2 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, Phil said: The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one. Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn. I'm hoping this Novemember cold verifies too. I also remember you saying earlier that you were feeling November here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. Hopefully the new gig treats you well my man! 3 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute! For real, my commute just went from 40 minutes to an hour. 7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: New job or did your office move? New job. A promotion of sorts. Will still be at the old office once a week. Edited November 1, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew 8 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Still raining a bunch but we're somewhere past .6 3 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 In other news I’m taking a wait and see approach in regards to next week. Could potentially see some flakes tomorrow morning. 2 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 I’m waiting for m’lady to come out of surgery. Y’all got QB for the morning GFS? 6 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Expecting a NowCast pretty soon. Looks like this band is overperforming here considering NWS had us as a rain/snow mix at best. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, Terreboner said: Expecting a NowCast pretty soon. Looks like this band is overperforming here considering NWS had us as a rain/snow mix at best. If events regularly overperform then this winter will become even more memorable. 2 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 37F here this morning. Looks like the next couple mornings could approach freezing so I might have to do a final collection of the remaining summer crops in the garden. 2 2 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise. The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November. 7 2 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look. 1 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise. The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November. Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity. Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, BLI snowman said: 12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look. True, but it is the icon, I’d rather have the gfs and euro onboard. Also the 12z icon is better than the 00z icon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, administrator said: Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity. Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled. The first snow maps of the year are always the easiest to get excited about. Then around 4 or 5 days out we remember what we learned the previous year. We spend the rest of the winter a bit wiser as we watch the cold air delay and delay until February. We'll do it again next November because that's what we do. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Hopefully November doesn't blow the load and there is nothing the rest of the Winter. It can, and has happened before. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, Terreboner said: Hopefully November doesn't blow the load and there is nothing the rest of the Winter. It can, and has happened before. It was cold for two straight months after the initial cold wave in mid-April. I’m not worried. Based on how the weather has worked this year I highly doubt this will be some “one hit wonder and then back to business as usual” event. The first storm of the season was NW flow and we’ve seen more NW than SW flow to this point, too. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Uh oh...is it time to put this thing on life support?? 850s are weak so far 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Uh oh...is it time to put this thing on life support?? 850s are weak so far Trend over the last few runs has been to shift everything westward early next week which increases SW flow. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post DareDuck Posted November 1, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 About 2.5” of snow on the south side of Bend. Rain started around 3am and transitioned to snow around 5-6am. More precip in the first 9 hours of November than all of October. 21 1 5 1 Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 The 12z GFS looks much more realistic with how much cold air pushes south compared to last nights run. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Temps down to 39F I'm very surprised the temps have gone down. Still raining! Bad that today I'm not in my office so no windows for me today! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, MWG said: Temps down to 39F I'm very surprised the temps have gone down. Still raining! Bad that today I'm not in my office so no windows for me today! Pretty sure you’re gonna have a sneaky good winter there. 3 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Kinda like Dec 2021 in which the really cold stuff doesn’t make it past Wenatchee but we still get extended maritime polar air and the mountains get absolutely buried in the type of powder Colorado resorts boast about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: Kinda like Dec 2021 in which the really cold stuff doesn’t make it past Wenatchee I would be just fine with a Dec 2021 repeat. 3 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Pretty sure you’re gonna have a sneaky good winter there. I hope so! It was a brutal Summer! then again it was for most of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: This is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean. 06z GEFS 850mb temp anoms. Welcome back, Phil. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Been snowing since about 6:30 this morning. Maybe an inch in the grassy areas but the roads are clear. 32.3 degrees. What a change in just two weeks. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 00z ECMWF ensemble was definitely still skeptical. 2 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, jakerepp said: Well. How convenient that the models are showing this for literally the week I move. On one hand, yay cold and snow! On the other, I have to drive 1000 miles that week. I suggest you move back here in the spring and then back to AZ again next November. I gotta keep the mojo going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick. 5 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Monday morning has a lot more convergence/moisture on the 12z which it thinks will be snow around Puget Sound but I’m skeptical temps would be cold enough for anything to stick. foothill and north end special? Probably to be expected with anything in November 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Gem gets kinda stormy early next week. With the way that trough digs out over the ocean it seems quite possible we will see some cyclogenesis off the coast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Gem gets kinda stormy early next week. With the way that trough digs out over the ocean it seems quite possible we will see some cyclogenesis off the coast. GEM a little better with the 850s than last 2 runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: foothill and north end special? Probably to be expected with anything in November I feel like that's more of end of winter thing. I liked where the 00z Euro was going and I'm hoping it trends colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Looks like some typical model waffling on this morning’s runs. Got down to 42 this morning to start November off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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