TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: SEA's average first freeze is about Nov. 14/15 and it looks like the it could be around Nov 9/10 this year per the models so it wouldn't exactly be out of the ordinary. In fact, I think that's probably quite normal and due given how late the first frost/freeze were last few years. Snow however before Nov. 17 is quite rare. Yeah we typically get our first freeze about that time as well. Sometimes we have to wait until late November/early December and in 08,16 and 21 it was mid/late December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Trough digs too far offshore it seems 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: Trough digs too far offshore it seems Yeah, I was going to note that trend. Oh well. 2 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: Trough digs too far offshore it seems 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah, I was going to note that trend. Oh well. Last 4 runs at day 6. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: Trough digs too far offshore it seems The nice thing about the gfs operational model is if you don’t like what it’s showing…it’ll almost always be completely different the next time. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Last 4 runs at day 6. Better than the 12z though it seems 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Our drunk uncle may be sobering up today after yesterday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 The good news is it is still pretty chilly. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: Last 4 runs at day 6. Block seems to be a little weaker with each run also 3 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: Better than the 12z though it seems I'm not so sure... still looks chilly but GOA blocking is clearly weaker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 yeah it took a tick back east and south on this run it seems and may as well continue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: I'm not so sure... still looks chilly but GOA blocking is clearly weaker. Yeah you're right the block looks weaker, the trough position is slightly better though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Operational will waffle around, at the very least it looks active, wet, and possibly cold. Really all we can ask for going into mid-November. 8 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Winter canceled 1 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, KeVamgedon said: Winter canceled Try posting that again in a few months! ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) 2 1 Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted November 1, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 (edited) Fantastic forum signs!!! Blocks are always too far East, west, north, south…Reminds me of the week before the December 2021, February 2021, January 2020, February 2019, February 2018, December 2017, January 2012 events…Just to name a few (many other honorable mentions over the last decade) Its coming! Edited November 1, 2022 by MossMan 11 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Pretty nice puffy cloud day today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Man, somebody give the GFS the cuervo, stat. Looking at that model run last night, you couldn't have asked for a better position of that arctic h coming almost directly down from the north. This run it gets shoved off to the east and game over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Temporary pullback right on schedule 5 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Friday still looks moist. 1 3 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Temporary pullback right on schedule Then the Nov 3rd 00z Euro will bring the arctic air all the way into southern Oregon with historic cold and snow for the region. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 That's tomorrow night. Sounds about right. 3 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Nws disc. Finally giving its first hint of possible low snow levels Sunday/Monday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Back to the present it’s 50 and mostly sunny here. Some decent looking showers moving inland right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 .94 inches of rain since aprox noon yesterday. Still raining. Down to 37F outside here. Heat is now a 70 burger at our house. That was for you TWL. 2 1 2 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Still gets there! 3 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Currently a chilly 44 IMBY. No matter how you slice it the first third of the month is going to average way below normal. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Nice squall line in the Willamette Valley about to cross I5. 2 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Still gets there! Yeah it's definitely not bad, that's also during the warmest time of day too! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 West Salem getting lightning out of this. 2 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 GEFS looks slightly improved 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, MossMan said: Fantastic forum signs!!! Blocks are always too far East, west, north, south…Reminds me of the week before the December 2021, February 2021, January 2020, February 2019, February 2018, December 2017, January 2012 events…Just to name a few (many other honorable mentions over the last decade) Its coming! Yeah, definitely too early to write this thing off. Pretty much every great snow/cold event has lots of swings on the models in the lead up. I’m definitely still on the skeptical side of this one but we will see where we’re at by this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Wow! I see the number of members online has soared today. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Yeah, definitely too early to write this thing off. Pretty much every great snow/cold event has lots of swings on the models in the lead up. I’m definitely still on the skeptical side of this one but we will see where we’re at by this weekend. Pretty much even the worse solutions now are still unseasonably chilly. Nice to get things started early! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 It's becoming obvious that exactly how far east or west the trough digs is going to have huge implications. Things like that can change quickly and without warning. 3 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Sonny Summers Posted November 1, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Model riding in the PNW images (2).mp4 2 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Going by Cocorahs looks like we got around 3.5" for the month, not bad especially because of how dry it was early in the month 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Pretty much even the worse solutions now are still unseasonably chilly. Nice to get things started early! No doubt it’ll be fairly cold. Even in a worst case scenario I wouldn’t be surprised if SEA challenges or even puts up a couple new record Min/Maxes. Some people on the forum in favored locations will probably see some snow too (Randy, Tim, Shawnigan lake & snowmizer). Even if it doesn’t snow or we don’t manage any sub 40 highs for most places it’ll still be pretty impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 GEFS is much colder than operational run, this is not over yet. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by smerfylicious,
Congrats!!!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
40 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by SouthHillJimmy,
Welcome Jimmy!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
21 reactions
Go to this post