Iceresistance Posted November 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 33 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Australia getting late Spring record snow So did Brazil! 1 2 1 1 Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winter Warlock Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 42.6 / 31.6 here - wind is picking up. 1 Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 First Australia, now Brazil??! Thanks Hunga Tonga! 5 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 30 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: This can't be discounted yet; it will be cold enough Monday morning. Difference with the ECMWF is that the ECMWF does not even show precipitation on Monday morning in the Seattle area. The ECMWF shows it dries out Sunday night and is basically dry through Thursday. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 I heard the southern hemisphere had a wild winter! 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Difference with the ECMWF is that the ECMWF does not even show precipitation on Monday morning in the Seattle area. The ECMWF show it dries out Sunday night and is basically dry through Thursday. True, low pressure if further north on GFS. I wonder if what it is showing is a deformation zone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 High Wind Warning posted! 1 2 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: High Wind Warning posted! For who?... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: True, low pressure if further north on GFS. I wonder if what it is showing is a deformation zone. I think so. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: For who?... Me Edited November 3, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Me Awesome, Puget Sound lowlands should be getting an advisory soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 you guys are going to hate this 000 FXUS66 KOTX 032234 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 334 PM PDT Thu Nov 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS.... A significant early winter storm is expected to move in tonight into the weekend. The winter storm will bring heavy wet snow tonight into Friday followed by strong winds Friday night into Saturday morning. A much colder weather pattern will bring accumulating snow to the Inland NW next week. && .DISCUSSION... ..First lowland snowfall of the season with heavy snow in the mountains tonight into Friday morning followed up with the potential of damaging winds Friday night into Saturday morning... Tonight through Saturday: A significant early season winter storm will impact the Inland Northwest over the next 36 hours with heavy wet snow transitioning to heavy rain, and then followed up by the potential for strong damaging winds. A warm front is beginning to push into western Washington late this afternoon with a large shield of stratiform precipitation being picked up by radar. The prognosis is for the warm front to spread across eastern Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. This will bring in an atmospheric river with P-wats pushing upwards of 0.8 inches into the Columbia Basin. This is a moderately strong Atmospheric River with strong dynamics. Snow levels will start out at valley floors across the northern mountain valleys to the northern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin and into the Idaho Panhandle. Strong warm air advection will result in snow levels rising quickly through the overnight hours with much of the valleys seeing snow transition over to rain through the course of the morning on Friday. Heavy wet snow is anticipated in the northern Cascades and especially so near the crest of the Cascades. Heavy wet snow is also expected over the northern mountains from the Okanogan Highlands over the Northern Panhandle and into the Central Panhandle Mountains. As rain transitions over to rain on Friday, the bulk of the rain will by focused over the Central Panhandle Mountains and over the Cascades. Concerns will shift from a winter storm issue to a hydro issue as rivers and small streams start to see sharp rises. On top of that, we will see very strong winds in the neighborhood of 50-60 mph winds at 850 mbs mix down with the cold front Friday night. There are three hazards that could produce significant impacts depending on the location: heavy snow, rain, and high winds. *Snow Amounts: We are looking at 6 to 10 inches for Stevens Pass with most of this snow falling this evening until about 1AM. After which snow should switch over to rain. Snow rates are expected to be between 1-2 inches per hour, so winter travel is expected over that pass this evening. Heavy snow of 1 to 2 feet is expected in the mountains north of Lake Chelan especially closer to the Cascade crest. Stevens Pass has a Winter Advisory out with the western Okanogan County under a Winter Storm Warning. The Winter Storm Watches have also been upgraded over the Northeast Mountains and in the Central to Northern Panhandle. The mountains will likely see 6 to 10 inches before warmer temperatures arrive by noon Friday. The valleys are trickier to nail down snow accumulations as temperatures are expected to only cool to around 33 degrees for a lot of spots. Colder pockets figure to do better. Lower elevations below 2,000 feet or so may struggle to accumulate 2 inches. The snow will be very wet. The higher benches and colder pockets are expected to see more in the range of 3 to 5 inches. The heavy wet consistency of the snow is the main concern though and is why we decided to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Tree damage will be possible for places that receive upwards of 3 inches, especially as lot of our deciduous trees still have plenty of leaves on them. Winter Weather Advisories have also been added for the Highway 2 corridor across the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur d'Alene areas, eastern Palouse, and Camas Prairie. Impacts aren't expected to be as great for these areas, but localized tree damage from the wet, heavy snow and impacts to the Friday morning commute is expected. *Hydrology: The heavy rain with freshly melting snow will result in sharp rises for the rivers and small streams. The flashy rivers like Stehekin and the Palouse River will be the main concerns with the potential of 1 to 2 inches Friday into Friday night. This will be in addition to the melting snow that fell through Friday morning. Small streams and creeks will be susceptible to rising quickly and cause flooding issues. Paradise Creek in Moscow comes to mind and will need to be monitored closely through this event. *Wind: Then we have the wind as the cold front sweeps through Friday night. Strong cold air advection will be enough for strong winds of 50-60 mph to mix down to the surface with cold front passage. Southerly winds will become quite windy through the afternoon on Friday then we will see a shift from the west after midnight with the potential for those strong more damaging wind gusts after the midnight hour. High Wind Watches for much of eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle remain in effect. We are looking at the potential for scattered to widespread tree damage and power outages come Saturday morning. Make sure flash lights are in working order and ready in case power goes out in your area. /SVH Saturday night through Wednesday: A deep low originating from the Gulf of Alaska will begin to dig down the northwestern coast late Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation will begin very early Sunday morning as a rather unstable airmass moves over the Pacific Northwest. 500mb temperatures dropping to near -30C and below will create very steep lapse rates across western and central Washington. With the surface low pressure off the coast near the WA/OR border, our low level flow will begin to turn to the east/northeast Sunday morning and afternoon mainly across central Washington, NE Washington, and the northern Panhandle. These steep lapse rates combined with a strong northeast flow will be favorable for strong upslope flow across the eastern slopes of the Cascades. This set up will support heavier precipitation across the east slopes of the Cascades into the Waterville Plateau, northeast Washington and north Idaho. Model ensembles paint a pretty snowy picture during the Sunday through Monday morning timeframe with the National Blend of Models giving areas such as the Methow Valley, Omak, Sandpoint a 50 to 70% chance to see snow totals greater than 4 inches. Wenatchee has about a 40% chance to see snow greater than 4 inches. The Spokane area currently has about a 20-30% chance to see snow above 4 inches. Areas above 2500 feet will see higher snow amounts with a 50 to 70% chance to see greater than 6 inches of snow. A challenge with the snow forecast, however, is because temperatures on Sunday will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s across much of the region, precipitation during the day looks to transition to a rain/snow mix or all rain across the Cascade valleys, the Columbia Basin into the Spokane area, the Palouse, and the L-C Valley. So the timing of the heaviest precipitation will play a big role in the precipitation type. Precipitation does look to continue overnight into Monday with a transition back to snow before ending Monday morning. Much cold air will arrive Monday, with high and low temperatures by Monday through the end of the work week around 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. This corresponds to highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. In addition, breezy northeast winds are expected down the Purcell Trench through the upper Columbia Basin Sunday night through Tuesday, which will make the temperatures feel much colder. Now is the time to prepare for these very cold temperatures. Information on how to prepare for the cold can be found at weather.gov/safety/cold. vmt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 51F and cloudy. Pleasant day out there. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: First Australia, now Brazil??! Thanks Hunga Tonga! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Looks like a 44/31 day. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 My goal this winter is to give everyone who posts on here the weiner hot dog emoji! 2 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 GFS must be picking up on a central sound convergence zone with those early Monday totals, Good luck nailing that down 3-4 days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, KeVamgedon said: My goal this winter is to give everyone who posts on here the weiner hot dog emoji! Looks like you already accomplished that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: you guys are going to hate this 000 FXUS66 KOTX 032234 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 334 PM PDT Thu Nov 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS.... A significant early winter storm is expected to move in tonight into the weekend. The winter storm will bring heavy wet snow tonight into Friday followed by strong winds Friday night into Saturday morning. A much colder weather pattern will bring accumulating snow to the Inland NW next week. && .DISCUSSION... ..First lowland snowfall of the season with heavy snow in the mountains tonight into Friday morning followed up with the potential of damaging winds Friday night into Saturday morning... Tonight through Saturday: A significant early season winter storm will impact the Inland Northwest over the next 36 hours with heavy wet snow transitioning to heavy rain, and then followed up by the potential for strong damaging winds. A warm front is beginning to push into western Washington late this afternoon with a large shield of stratiform precipitation being picked up by radar. The prognosis is for the warm front to spread across eastern Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. This will bring in an atmospheric river with P-wats pushing upwards of 0.8 inches into the Columbia Basin. This is a moderately strong Atmospheric River with strong dynamics. Snow levels will start out at valley floors across the northern mountain valleys to the northern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin and into the Idaho Panhandle. Strong warm air advection will result in snow levels rising quickly through the overnight hours with much of the valleys seeing snow transition over to rain through the course of the morning on Friday. Heavy wet snow is anticipated in the northern Cascades and especially so near the crest of the Cascades. Heavy wet snow is also expected over the northern mountains from the Okanogan Highlands over the Northern Panhandle and into the Central Panhandle Mountains. As rain transitions over to rain on Friday, the bulk of the rain will by focused over the Central Panhandle Mountains and over the Cascades. Concerns will shift from a winter storm issue to a hydro issue as rivers and small streams start to see sharp rises. On top of that, we will see very strong winds in the neighborhood of 50-60 mph winds at 850 mbs mix down with the cold front Friday night. There are three hazards that could produce significant impacts depending on the location: heavy snow, rain, and high winds. *Snow Amounts: We are looking at 6 to 10 inches for Stevens Pass with most of this snow falling this evening until about 1AM. After which snow should switch over to rain. Snow rates are expected to be between 1-2 inches per hour, so winter travel is expected over that pass this evening. Heavy snow of 1 to 2 feet is expected in the mountains north of Lake Chelan especially closer to the Cascade crest. Stevens Pass has a Winter Advisory out with the western Okanogan County under a Winter Storm Warning. The Winter Storm Watches have also been upgraded over the Northeast Mountains and in the Central to Northern Panhandle. The mountains will likely see 6 to 10 inches before warmer temperatures arrive by noon Friday. The valleys are trickier to nail down snow accumulations as temperatures are expected to only cool to around 33 degrees for a lot of spots. Colder pockets figure to do better. Lower elevations below 2,000 feet or so may struggle to accumulate 2 inches. The snow will be very wet. The higher benches and colder pockets are expected to see more in the range of 3 to 5 inches. The heavy wet consistency of the snow is the main concern though and is why we decided to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Tree damage will be possible for places that receive upwards of 3 inches, especially as lot of our deciduous trees still have plenty of leaves on them. Winter Weather Advisories have also been added for the Highway 2 corridor across the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur d'Alene areas, eastern Palouse, and Camas Prairie. Impacts aren't expected to be as great for these areas, but localized tree damage from the wet, heavy snow and impacts to the Friday morning commute is expected. *Hydrology: The heavy rain with freshly melting snow will result in sharp rises for the rivers and small streams. The flashy rivers like Stehekin and the Palouse River will be the main concerns with the potential of 1 to 2 inches Friday into Friday night. This will be in addition to the melting snow that fell through Friday morning. Small streams and creeks will be susceptible to rising quickly and cause flooding issues. Paradise Creek in Moscow comes to mind and will need to be monitored closely through this event. *Wind: Then we have the wind as the cold front sweeps through Friday night. Strong cold air advection will be enough for strong winds of 50-60 mph to mix down to the surface with cold front passage. Southerly winds will become quite windy through the afternoon on Friday then we will see a shift from the west after midnight with the potential for those strong more damaging wind gusts after the midnight hour. High Wind Watches for much of eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle remain in effect. We are looking at the potential for scattered to widespread tree damage and power outages come Saturday morning. Make sure flash lights are in working order and ready in case power goes out in your area. /SVH Saturday night through Wednesday: A deep low originating from the Gulf of Alaska will begin to dig down the northwestern coast late Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation will begin very early Sunday morning as a rather unstable airmass moves over the Pacific Northwest. 500mb temperatures dropping to near -30C and below will create very steep lapse rates across western and central Washington. With the surface low pressure off the coast near the WA/OR border, our low level flow will begin to turn to the east/northeast Sunday morning and afternoon mainly across central Washington, NE Washington, and the northern Panhandle. These steep lapse rates combined with a strong northeast flow will be favorable for strong upslope flow across the eastern slopes of the Cascades. This set up will support heavier precipitation across the east slopes of the Cascades into the Waterville Plateau, northeast Washington and north Idaho. Model ensembles paint a pretty snowy picture during the Sunday through Monday morning timeframe with the National Blend of Models giving areas such as the Methow Valley, Omak, Sandpoint a 50 to 70% chance to see snow totals greater than 4 inches. Wenatchee has about a 40% chance to see snow greater than 4 inches. The Spokane area currently has about a 20-30% chance to see snow above 4 inches. Areas above 2500 feet will see higher snow amounts with a 50 to 70% chance to see greater than 6 inches of snow. A challenge with the snow forecast, however, is because temperatures on Sunday will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s across much of the region, precipitation during the day looks to transition to a rain/snow mix or all rain across the Cascade valleys, the Columbia Basin into the Spokane area, the Palouse, and the L-C Valley. So the timing of the heaviest precipitation will play a big role in the precipitation type. Precipitation does look to continue overnight into Monday with a transition back to snow before ending Monday morning. Much cold air will arrive Monday, with high and low temperatures by Monday through the end of the work week around 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. This corresponds to highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. In addition, breezy northeast winds are expected down the Purcell Trench through the upper Columbia Basin Sunday night through Tuesday, which will make the temperatures feel much colder. Now is the time to prepare for these very cold temperatures. Information on how to prepare for the cold can be found at weather.gov/safety/cold. vmt 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gummy said: GFS must be picking up on a central sound convergence zone with those early Monday totals, Good luck nailing that down 3-4 days out. Looks like a deformation zone to me. Winds are essentially calm, and the band is large. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, KeVamgedon said: My goal this winter is to give everyone who posts on here the weiner hot dog emoji! I'm pretty hungry 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, KeVamgedon said: My goal this winter is to give everyone who posts on here the weiner hot dog emoji! I've made that very easy for you. Hope you get buried this winter. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted November 3, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Snowing 7 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: you guys are going to hate this 000 FXUS66 KOTX 032234 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 334 PM PDT Thu Nov 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS.... A significant early winter storm is expected to move in tonight into the weekend. The winter storm will bring heavy wet snow tonight into Friday followed by strong winds Friday night into Saturday morning. A much colder weather pattern will bring accumulating snow to the Inland NW next week. && .DISCUSSION... ..First lowland snowfall of the season with heavy snow in the mountains tonight into Friday morning followed up with the potential of damaging winds Friday night into Saturday morning... Tonight through Saturday: A significant early season winter storm will impact the Inland Northwest over the next 36 hours with heavy wet snow transitioning to heavy rain, and then followed up by the potential for strong damaging winds. A warm front is beginning to push into western Washington late this afternoon with a large shield of stratiform precipitation being picked up by radar. The prognosis is for the warm front to spread across eastern Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. This will bring in an atmospheric river with P-wats pushing upwards of 0.8 inches into the Columbia Basin. This is a moderately strong Atmospheric River with strong dynamics. Snow levels will start out at valley floors across the northern mountain valleys to the northern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin and into the Idaho Panhandle. Strong warm air advection will result in snow levels rising quickly through the overnight hours with much of the valleys seeing snow transition over to rain through the course of the morning on Friday. Heavy wet snow is anticipated in the northern Cascades and especially so near the crest of the Cascades. Heavy wet snow is also expected over the northern mountains from the Okanogan Highlands over the Northern Panhandle and into the Central Panhandle Mountains. As rain transitions over to rain on Friday, the bulk of the rain will by focused over the Central Panhandle Mountains and over the Cascades. Concerns will shift from a winter storm issue to a hydro issue as rivers and small streams start to see sharp rises. On top of that, we will see very strong winds in the neighborhood of 50-60 mph winds at 850 mbs mix down with the cold front Friday night. There are three hazards that could produce significant impacts depending on the location: heavy snow, rain, and high winds. *Snow Amounts: We are looking at 6 to 10 inches for Stevens Pass with most of this snow falling this evening until about 1AM. After which snow should switch over to rain. Snow rates are expected to be between 1-2 inches per hour, so winter travel is expected over that pass this evening. Heavy snow of 1 to 2 feet is expected in the mountains north of Lake Chelan especially closer to the Cascade crest. Stevens Pass has a Winter Advisory out with the western Okanogan County under a Winter Storm Warning. The Winter Storm Watches have also been upgraded over the Northeast Mountains and in the Central to Northern Panhandle. The mountains will likely see 6 to 10 inches before warmer temperatures arrive by noon Friday. The valleys are trickier to nail down snow accumulations as temperatures are expected to only cool to around 33 degrees for a lot of spots. Colder pockets figure to do better. Lower elevations below 2,000 feet or so may struggle to accumulate 2 inches. The snow will be very wet. The higher benches and colder pockets are expected to see more in the range of 3 to 5 inches. The heavy wet consistency of the snow is the main concern though and is why we decided to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Tree damage will be possible for places that receive upwards of 3 inches, especially as lot of our deciduous trees still have plenty of leaves on them. Winter Weather Advisories have also been added for the Highway 2 corridor across the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur d'Alene areas, eastern Palouse, and Camas Prairie. Impacts aren't expected to be as great for these areas, but localized tree damage from the wet, heavy snow and impacts to the Friday morning commute is expected. *Hydrology: The heavy rain with freshly melting snow will result in sharp rises for the rivers and small streams. The flashy rivers like Stehekin and the Palouse River will be the main concerns with the potential of 1 to 2 inches Friday into Friday night. This will be in addition to the melting snow that fell through Friday morning. Small streams and creeks will be susceptible to rising quickly and cause flooding issues. Paradise Creek in Moscow comes to mind and will need to be monitored closely through this event. *Wind: Then we have the wind as the cold front sweeps through Friday night. Strong cold air advection will be enough for strong winds of 50-60 mph to mix down to the surface with cold front passage. Southerly winds will become quite windy through the afternoon on Friday then we will see a shift from the west after midnight with the potential for those strong more damaging wind gusts after the midnight hour. High Wind Watches for much of eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle remain in effect. We are looking at the potential for scattered to widespread tree damage and power outages come Saturday morning. Make sure flash lights are in working order and ready in case power goes out in your area. /SVH Saturday night through Wednesday: A deep low originating from the Gulf of Alaska will begin to dig down the northwestern coast late Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation will begin very early Sunday morning as a rather unstable airmass moves over the Pacific Northwest. 500mb temperatures dropping to near -30C and below will create very steep lapse rates across western and central Washington. With the surface low pressure off the coast near the WA/OR border, our low level flow will begin to turn to the east/northeast Sunday morning and afternoon mainly across central Washington, NE Washington, and the northern Panhandle. These steep lapse rates combined with a strong northeast flow will be favorable for strong upslope flow across the eastern slopes of the Cascades. This set up will support heavier precipitation across the east slopes of the Cascades into the Waterville Plateau, northeast Washington and north Idaho. Model ensembles paint a pretty snowy picture during the Sunday through Monday morning timeframe with the National Blend of Models giving areas such as the Methow Valley, Omak, Sandpoint a 50 to 70% chance to see snow totals greater than 4 inches. Wenatchee has about a 40% chance to see snow greater than 4 inches. The Spokane area currently has about a 20-30% chance to see snow above 4 inches. Areas above 2500 feet will see higher snow amounts with a 50 to 70% chance to see greater than 6 inches of snow. A challenge with the snow forecast, however, is because temperatures on Sunday will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s across much of the region, precipitation during the day looks to transition to a rain/snow mix or all rain across the Cascade valleys, the Columbia Basin into the Spokane area, the Palouse, and the L-C Valley. So the timing of the heaviest precipitation will play a big role in the precipitation type. Precipitation does look to continue overnight into Monday with a transition back to snow before ending Monday morning. Much cold air will arrive Monday, with high and low temperatures by Monday through the end of the work week around 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. This corresponds to highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. In addition, breezy northeast winds are expected down the Purcell Trench through the upper Columbia Basin Sunday night through Tuesday, which will make the temperatures feel much colder. Now is the time to prepare for these very cold temperatures. Information on how to prepare for the cold can be found at weather.gov/safety/cold. vmt Post of the year!! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Heavy rain and 37.9°F. 0.68" and counting for the day. 2 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Looks like the rain is about to begin. 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 An Arctic Blast in Mid-November: Much Colder Ahead! | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com) Mark Nelsen's blog post from November 2014, thought it was interesting to revisit based on what's coming up. Similar in that we went from one of the warmest falls on record to some pretty cold weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Weiner Warrior is in da house! 1 5 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Skykomish was lovely at 11am this morning when I was there. 7 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Doinko said: An Arctic Blast in Mid-November: Much Colder Ahead! | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com) Mark Nelsen's blog post from November 2014, thought it was interesting to revisit based on what's coming up. Similar in that we went from one of the warmest falls on record to some pretty cold weather Very warm, dry winter followed. There was a developing Nino in 2014-15... but it happened faster than it will this year. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Very warm, dry winter followed. There was a developing Nino in 2014-15... but it happened faster than it will this year. I feel like this winter will be different at least before February 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 Pretty big difference in the models for how much cold makes it to the Basin and the Dalles. EPS mean bottoms out at around -8 on the 12z while the GEFS mean bottoms out at around -15 on the 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Pretty big difference in the models for how much cold makes it to the Basin and the Dalles. EPS mean bottoms out at around -8 on the 12z while the GEFS mean bottoms out at around -15 on the 18z. Probably meet in the middle somewhere. Cant see GEFS caving that much that quickly. I bet they get to -10 or -11. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 3, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 SFU campus atop Burnaby Mountain (about 300 m) right now. 10 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Puking snow at Longmire, for now. Same at Paradise. Hopefully a little buffer before all of this rain. 2006 all over again? I think that one lasted much longer though. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 It's a soaker across Western Washington and NW Oregon. Snow in the mountains and east of the Cascade's in areas, otherwise rain there too. Also check out these wind maps! Powerful gusts predicted by the models with the strongest times for gusts early Friday morning and late Friday night. 60mph gusts expected through inland waterways of the Puget Sound and 70+ in the foothills and Cascades. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Snowing in Stevens Pass, let's check out our snow measuring device and see what it looks like later into the weekend. The temperature is currently 22F. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoldenEars Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Precipitation rates picked up and the temperature dropped a couple of degrees. Getting the first splats of the season mixing in now! Currently 39.5F at CYPK. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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