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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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45 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks like an intense band drops this on Seattle early Sunday 

59FED304-ADD8-4D5B-9995-D57DAC8A4F86.jpeg

With saturated air in the mid-30's F at the surface and a 925 mbar temp right at freezing? Maybe down to the higher hills given that the intensity is modeled to be high.

gfs-deterministic-washington-dew2m_f-7736000.thumb.png.19dc2ba1faef9c4fd63add3f383ed30b.pnggfs-deterministic-washington-t925-7736000.thumb.png.752e82f709c61941b008a9c27558eee8.pnggfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-7736000.thumb.png.97a0642b892794b947c8f88d71d5c79e.png

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot.  Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome.  Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get.  It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot.  Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome.  Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get.  It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however.

That's the difference between the GFS Op and GEFS hr 72-84. Trough is several notches further east on the GEFS.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot.  Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome.  Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get.  It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however.

It’s modeled to be almost on the edge, temperature-wise. Wouldn’t take much of a discrepancy from what is modeled for there to be a snowy surprise.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
GEFS - The Dalles. Big outlier. Mean temp -15.1c and note all of the members -15c to -17c. Interesting!
gfs-the-dalles-us-455n-1(9).png

The op is emerging as a really warm outlier.  Hard to imagine future runs not coming down a bit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s modeled to be almost on the edge, temperature-wise. Wouldn’t take much of a discrepancy from what is modeled for there to be a snowy surprise.

On the other hand it could trend too far west but based on the GEFS I think and hope that it'll be slightly farther east than shown on the operationals.

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A chilly / dry pattern sure looks possible in the longer range.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Doinko said:

On the other hand it could trend too far west but based on the GEFS I feel and hope that it'll be slightly farther east than shown on the operationals.

West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means.

Either way this November is already seeming much better than the past few years.  And hints that the block could reset in a favorable position

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Shame to see a dry pattern appearing on the horizon once again in the mid to long range. I guess the 2-3 weeks of active weather will have been nice while they lasted. Hopefully the next dry period won’t dig it’s heels like the last one did.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Shame to see a dry pattern appearing on the horizon once again in the mid to long range. I guess the 2-3 weeks of active weather will have been nice while they lasted. Hopefully the next dry period won’t dig it’s heels like the last one did.

I’m hoping we get a good, foggy, cold inversion out of it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen from his blog post:

That cool upper-level trough I mentioned earlier drops down along the West Coast and sits there Monday through Wednesday. 850mb temps bottom out around -4 to -6 C during that time; unusually cold for early November. Typically that’s around 1,500′ to 2,000′ snow levels. That’s with onshore flow. But during that time next week, we get a cool north or northeast wind as a cold arctic high pressure area will be sitting over SW Canada.
The low level airmass will also be unusually cold, including north of us. Here’s a Wednesday morning forecast temperature map; keep in mind anything under about -17 (C) on this map is 0 (F). Very unusual to have temps around zero degrees in early November just north of the U.S. border.

With that chilly air filtering south, snow levels COULD dip all the way to sea level. But at the same time it appears we’ll likely be dry from late Monday through at least Wednesday next week. So I’m thinking sticking snow down to sea level is unlikely Monday through Wednesday. It’s a bit too warm still Monday morning, but then when it WILL be cold enough Tuesday/Wednesday we’ll probably dry out. Now later next week, we could see moisture return. Each model is different with timing so we’ll see what happens. Remember that it IS possible to get snow or freezing rain as we head into mid-November. In 2014 freezing rain made it all the way into the central part of the metro area on the 13th!

That’s it for now. Our forecast looks like this…with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal Monday-Thursday next week. Stay Tuned!

Very interesting. Fun times ahead!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m hoping we get a good, foggy, cold inversion out of it.

I think we will see some solidly cold temps for awhile.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF Day 1 (Past 4 runs)

trend-ecmwf_full-2022110400-f024.500h_anom.na.gif

24hr Rainfall totals

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Let's Go EC!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Anything from Costco boost my retirement fund….well done! 
I myself got 🧻 TP, frozen chicken and Norwegian smoked salmon! 

That sounds delicious. Executive membership or employee?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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