Doinko Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 GEFS is still cold 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: Not much of a pullback so far on the GEFS Yep. Really not much of any moderation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 GFS big time outlier. GEFS is just as cold as previous runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 GEFS - The Dalles. Big outlier. Mean temp -15.1c and note all of the members -15c to -17c. Interesting! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: GEFS - The Dalles. Big outlier. Mean temp -15.1c and note all of the members -15c to -18c. Interesting! What temp did the last ecmwf mean get to? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 45 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Looks like an intense band drops this on Seattle early Sunday With saturated air in the mid-30's F at the surface and a 925 mbar temp right at freezing? Maybe down to the higher hills given that the intensity is modeled to be high. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot. Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome. Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get. It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however. 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot. Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome. Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get. It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however. That's the difference between the GFS Op and GEFS hr 72-84. Trough is several notches further east on the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot. Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome. Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get. It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however. It’s modeled to be almost on the edge, temperature-wise. Wouldn’t take much of a discrepancy from what is modeled for there to be a snowy surprise. 3 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: GEFS - The Dalles. Big outlier. Mean temp -15.1c and note all of the members -15c to -17c. Interesting! The op is emerging as a really warm outlier. Hard to imagine future runs not coming down a bit. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: The op is emerging as a really warm outlier. Hard to imagine future runs not coming down a bit. It also makes me wonder if we might see the EURO colder tonight. Hmmm.... 00z ECMWF in 42 minutes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: It’s modeled to be almost on the edge, temperature-wise. Wouldn’t take much of a discrepancy from what is modeled for there to be a snowy surprise. On the other hand it could trend too far west but based on the GEFS I think and hope that it'll be slightly farther east than shown on the operationals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 A chilly / dry pattern sure looks possible in the longer range. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: On the other hand it could trend too far west but based on the GEFS I feel and hope that it'll be slightly farther east than shown on the operationals. West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means. Either way this November is already seeming much better than the past few years. And hints that the block could reset in a favorable position 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means. Just give me another November 2010 when the models had it mispositioned and weaker. Now that was a nice surprise 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 And just like that Snoqualmie is closed: 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Doinko Posted November 4, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 @NWbyNWposted this camera earlier, around 6" of snow since then 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said: And just like that Snoqualmie is closed: Snoqualmie will get so much snow this season the pass will close all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Doinko Posted November 4, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Mark Nelsen from his blog post: That cool upper-level trough I mentioned earlier drops down along the West Coast and sits there Monday through Wednesday. 850mb temps bottom out around -4 to -6 C during that time; unusually cold for early November. Typically that’s around 1,500′ to 2,000′ snow levels. That’s with onshore flow. But during that time next week, we get a cool north or northeast wind as a cold arctic high pressure area will be sitting over SW Canada. The low level airmass will also be unusually cold, including north of us. Here’s a Wednesday morning forecast temperature map; keep in mind anything under about -17 (C) on this map is 0 (F). Very unusual to have temps around zero degrees in early November just north of the U.S. border. With that chilly air filtering south, snow levels COULD dip all the way to sea level. But at the same time it appears we’ll likely be dry from late Monday through at least Wednesday next week. So I’m thinking sticking snow down to sea level is unlikely Monday through Wednesday. It’s a bit too warm still Monday morning, but then when it WILL be cold enough Tuesday/Wednesday we’ll probably dry out. Now later next week, we could see moisture return. Each model is different with timing so we’ll see what happens. Remember that it IS possible to get snow or freezing rain as we head into mid-November. In 2014 freezing rain made it all the way into the central part of the metro area on the 13th! That’s it for now. Our forecast looks like this…with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal Monday-Thursday next week. Stay Tuned! 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Shame to see a dry pattern appearing on the horizon once again in the mid to long range. I guess the 2-3 weeks of active weather will have been nice while they lasted. Hopefully the next dry period won’t dig it’s heels like the last one did. 1 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Shame to see a dry pattern appearing on the horizon once again in the mid to long range. I guess the 2-3 weeks of active weather will have been nice while they lasted. Hopefully the next dry period won’t dig it’s heels like the last one did. I’m hoping we get a good, foggy, cold inversion out of it. 2 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, Doinko said: Mark Nelsen from his blog post: That cool upper-level trough I mentioned earlier drops down along the West Coast and sits there Monday through Wednesday. 850mb temps bottom out around -4 to -6 C during that time; unusually cold for early November. Typically that’s around 1,500′ to 2,000′ snow levels. That’s with onshore flow. But during that time next week, we get a cool north or northeast wind as a cold arctic high pressure area will be sitting over SW Canada. The low level airmass will also be unusually cold, including north of us. Here’s a Wednesday morning forecast temperature map; keep in mind anything under about -17 (C) on this map is 0 (F). Very unusual to have temps around zero degrees in early November just north of the U.S. border. With that chilly air filtering south, snow levels COULD dip all the way to sea level. But at the same time it appears we’ll likely be dry from late Monday through at least Wednesday next week. So I’m thinking sticking snow down to sea level is unlikely Monday through Wednesday. It’s a bit too warm still Monday morning, but then when it WILL be cold enough Tuesday/Wednesday we’ll probably dry out. Now later next week, we could see moisture return. Each model is different with timing so we’ll see what happens. Remember that it IS possible to get snow or freezing rain as we head into mid-November. In 2014 freezing rain made it all the way into the central part of the metro area on the 13th! That’s it for now. Our forecast looks like this…with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal Monday-Thursday next week. Stay Tuned! Very interesting. Fun times ahead! 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: I’m hoping we get a good, foggy, cold inversion out of it. I think we will see some solidly cold temps for awhile. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 1 (Past 4 runs) 24hr Rainfall totals 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: 00z ECMWF Day 1 (Past 4 runs) 24hr Rainfall totals Let's Go EC!! 1 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) 48hr Rainfall totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Jginmartini said: Anything from Costco boost my retirement fund….well done! I myself got TP, frozen chicken and Norwegian smoked salmon! That sounds delicious. Executive membership or employee? 1 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) 72hr Rainfall totals 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 This would be very nice for California 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Up to 1.02” on the day. 2 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) 5 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Euro seems milder than the GEFS but the 500mb pattern doesn't look that different 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Euro seems milder than the GEFS but the 500mb pattern doesn't look that different Euro is worlds better with surface stuff. 3 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Euro seems milder than the GEFS but the 500mb pattern doesn't look that different Exactly. Same pattern, but the GEFS is either too aggressive blasting the cold air into the Columbia Basin, or thinks the air mass is much colder than the ECMWF. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 4, 2022 Report Share Posted November 4, 2022 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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