November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Cascadia_Wx]

51/41, 48/40, and 47/41 days to start off November. Decently chilly days but still waiting for our first sub-40 low.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

51/41, 48/40, and 47/41 days to start off November. Decently chilly days but still waiting for our first sub-40 low.

Your location, or PDX? I've been below 40 several times out here near west Gresham.

6z GFS in 2 hours 57 minutes

[MossMan]

Going to snow on Sunday. 
And the Seattle shoe bandit has been caught. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Your location, or PDX? I've been below 40 several times out here near west Gresham.

6z GFS in 2 hours 57 minutes

Our location. Out past Fisher’s Landing.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 run)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Chilly east wind develops

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Jbolin]

Second day in a row the tone of the board is quite subdued.

Tells me all I need to know. Goodnight.

[Gradient Keeper]

Strong, cold east wind!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Strong, cold east wind!

Sadly it looks a bit too warm when the next system comes through, snow in the Gorge though

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Doinko said:

Sadly it looks a bit too warm when the next system comes through, snow in the Gorge though

Yes it does. We will ultimately have to see exactly how much cold air makes it south into the Columbia Basin in real-time looking at observations, dewpoints, 850mb/925mb temps, and northerly pressure gradients (YKA-OMK, OMK-PDT)

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yes it does. We will ultimately have to see exactly how much cold air makes it south into the Columbia Basin in real-time looking at observations, dewpoints, 850mb/925mb temps, and northerly pressure gradients (YKA-OMK, OMK-PDT)

Yeah pretty big disagreement for a similar upper level pattern, so I guess we'll have to wait for more runs and observations

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Deweydog]

Friday still looks wet

[Gradient Keeper]

The GFS and ECMWF Op sure turn splitty after about Day 5.5 ..... I hope not. Maybe we do see that and weak systems for 7-10 days before renewed blocking and a MASSIVE BITTER BLAST!

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Friday still looks wet

2 minutes remaining to change your mind.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1.39" yesterday.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS a touch colder 850s, but definitely colder surface temps. Let's keep that going. Looking at the GFS/ECMWF next 24 hours there are two lobes to watch. The first is currently near the southeast AK coast, and the main player is near Barrow. It's that secondary lobe that is forecast to drop south off Alaska that doesn't allow the brunt of arctic air to dig over us. I'll watch IR Loop to see if that slides any further east. If I have to I'll make that bastard dig closer to the BC coast.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM is running! 

[Snownerd3000]

24 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

EPS a touch colder 850s, but definitely colder surface temps. Let's keep that going. Looking at the GFS/ECMWF next 24 hours there are two lobes to watch. The first is currently near the southeast AK coast, and the main player is near Barrow. It's that secondary lobe that is forecast to drop south off Alaska that doesn't allow the brunt of arctic air to dig over us. I'll watch IR Loop to see if that slides any further east. If I have to I'll make that bastard dig closer to the BC coast.

You forgot the reloaded block 

[snow_wizard]

I like where the EPS is going at the end.  Strong signal for a positive anomaly center in the sweet spot.  Looks like a cold month in the works.

Meanwhile...I had rain with temps in the upper 30s tonight.  Pretty impressive for this early.

[smerfylicious]

Well looks like we're still good for some snow here. Few early November inches will be nice. We're overperforming on the cold here as well. Was supposed to only drop to 41, we got down to 36 and its only warmed to 38.

 

Stevens should overperform since they're over 10" of fresh powder. May get well over a foot if the warmth buggers off a few more hours. 

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

You forgot the reloaded block 

I hadn't seen that. Very nice. Thanks!

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I like where the EPS is going at the end.  Strong signal for a positive anomaly center in the sweet spot.  Looks like a cold month in the works.

Meanwhile...I had rain with temps in the upper 30s tonight.  Pretty impressive for this early.

Looks outstanding! Yeah, this feels like mid-December or January even!

6z GFS in 1 hour 25 minutes
12z GFS in 7 hours 25 minutes
12z ECMWF in 9 hours 35 minutes

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Well looks like we're still good for some snow here. Few early November inches will be nice. We're overperforming on the cold here as well. Was supposed to only drop to 41, we got down to 36 and its only warmed to 38.

 

Stevens should overperform since they're over 10" of fresh powder. May get well over a foot if the warmth buggers off a few more hours. 

This first little cold shot wasn't bad.  45/32 on Wednesday and 43/33 on Thursday here.

[smerfylicious]

Snowing in leavenworth at least! A true winter wonderland. Congrats Brian!

https://youtu.be/lim5hCR59kw

[Gradient Keeper]

I love reading the Spokane AFD. The arctic front marches southward sounds good to me.

Spokane will quickly change back over to snow
somewhere between 7-10PM PST Sunday. Pullman will change back to
snow somewhere between 8PM Sunday-12AM PST Monday. Locations in 
SE WA will change a few hours later as the arctic front continues 
to march south. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Stevens Pass [Chelan Co, WA] PUBLIC reports SNOW of 11.00 INCH at 2:00 AM PDT -- 11 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AND STILL SNOWING AS OF 2AM. SNOW STARTED A BIT AFTER 4PM THURSDAY NOV 3RD.

[Everleigh]

Biggest wind so far, 20.6mph, at 4:39am. Rain: 0.04in since midnight. Was kinda hoping to wake up with no power, so the kids could stay home, but alas, that isn't the case. lol It'll probably go out half way through the school day, then I'll have to deal with the chaos of picking them up early. TGIF! 

[MossMan]

1.12” so far on the day! And this woke me up a bit ago. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 52 now... starting to get windy.   Only about an inch so far in North Bend and the Seattle area is getting heavily shadowed.    A little disappointing.   Models show the heavy rain lifting a bit north later this morning before it starts pushing south.   

Much drier weather ahead.    This is the 10-day precip anomaly from the EPS for days 5-15 which takes out the rain today and the system on Sunday.    Beginning Monday it dries out significantly.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Property in Eastern Washington is getting nuked. The flow is perfect right now. Looks like about 6 inches so far.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Property in Eastern Washington is getting nuked. The flow is perfect right now. Looks like about 6 inches so far.

Are you heading over? If so get pics! 

[Brennan]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Property in Eastern Washington is getting nuked. The flow is perfect right now. Looks like about 6 inches so far.

Wauconda FTW!! You must have a pretty good webcam set up to be able to eyeball snowfall totals  SHARE!

[Blizzard777]

7 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

That sounds delicious. Executive membership or employee?

28 fun years with the company as it grew and executive membership for life (parting gift ). 

50*  with a whopping .02 precipitation due to “The Shadow” .

Winds just beginning…SSE 7-15
 

 

[Blizzard777]

Might work in the yard in a bit ,… ..what rain ? 

[FroYoBro]

It’s raining.