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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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2.35" so far in the last 24 hours. That puts this as the third wettest 24 hour period I've recorded behind 2.70" for 1/4-5/15 (noon to noon) and 2.50" for 11/12-13/15 (10 a.m. to 10 a.m.).

Unfortunately that was split between 0.82" yesterday and 1.53" today. Not sure I'll hit my wettest calendar day ever (2.24" from 5/28/10), but it's definitely a bit damp out there.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Troughing really starts to take over. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_64.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This has been the Autumn of the rain shadow here in Seattle. Third system now with super overpowering shadowing.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How many more weeks of winter do we get if your weenie sees its shadow?

A million. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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On the 12z GFS, this is probably the most realistic window to see some snow in the western lowlands. Monday night, any decent precip that is still around will probably be at least snow in the air. Airmass is cold enough by then and we have offshore flow as the trough continues to push south.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png

Soundings around PDX look good

gfs_2022110412_096_45.5--123.0.png

 

GEM still dries us out by this point. Hopefully models trend towards throwing in a bit more precip.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

But look at that clear blue sky over Tims house!!!! 

In all fairness, I do think we see about a week of dryish weather coming up. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I definitely think we’re gonna see some snowflakes at some point Sunday or Monday. Really don’t think we see anything that sticks but that’s alright. Looks like high temps 39-42 degrees for a few days after we dry out with some lows in the upper 20s-freezing here not bad. 

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2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

They're having a fine Septvember on the east coast

 

 

Funn for Fill

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Still not raining here. The river is just barely holding off to the north.

Looks like Bellingham is already on the cold side of the AR and they are at 40°F.

42°F here in East Van and that is the warmest it’s been since this AR kicked in.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

42°F here in East Van and that is the warmest it’s been since this AR kicked in.

Looks like the airmass boundary is currently somewhere in Skagit County. Mt Vernon has switched to northerlies. About to reach Randy’s place!

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14 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I seem to be on the fringe of the rain shadow based on radar and what I see out the window. Up to 56 here. 

On the edge of the shadow here too... just some sprinkles and 57.    Also dead calm for the last couple hours after moderate wind earlier this morning.    I was expecting way more rain out here today.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like the airmass boundary is currently somewhere in Skagit County. Mt Vernon has switched to northerlies. About to reach Randy’s place!

I'm not sure we've seen the warm sector of the storm yet up here. The Euro still has 50s popping all the way up to Vancouver by the late afternoon. So far I haven't been above 44F.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, snow maniac said:

So far a dud of a storm, little rain and no wind to speak of.

rain shadow has been in full effect

It's a love/hate relationship with the Olympics.... It can help bring extraordinary stuff with the PSCZ and can also cause complete dryness if a  flow like this to occur. Pretty much anyone within the Seattle vicinity from Lynnwood to Renton is dry today. 

This was also very well modeled. 

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