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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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GFS/GEFS definitely develop an impressive low level cold pool Gorge/Columbia Basin that strengthens late week. ECMWF/EPS also does but not as cold 925s. Given the model trends and trough holding over us through Day 3 I would favor a cold pool and period of gusty east winds for sure.

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 14 minutes

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is a extremely rare snow event for so early up here. By tomorrow most places will have between 12-24 inches on ground and that will be the deepest this early since I've been coming here in 2013.

Congrats man!!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

Up to 1.00" of rain on the day!

I'm more excited about this than I was a few snowflakes. I got shadowed on the AR event but did fine with this one.

Nice! 0.90" here so precip rates are definitely playing a big role today.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The 18z has shaved about 1C off the 850s and 925 for tonight in this area.  Pretty good chance there will at least be some flakes here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z has shaved about 1C off the 850s and 925 for tonight in this area.  Pretty good chance there will at least be some flakes here.

Hoping the over performance in the South Valley could mean a better chance here

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z has shaved about 1C off the 850s and 925 for tonight in this area.  Pretty good chance there will at least be some flakes here.

Gfs overall looks better tomorrow night in terms of precip and temps but wouldn’t surprise me to see some flakes tonight. 

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1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (Past 8 runs) Shows even better here the trough holding over us.

trend-gfs-2022110618-f072.500h_anom_na.gif

This is starting to show up in colder min temps for this area on the 18z GFS.  Looking really nippy some days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hoping the over performance in the South Valley could mean a better chance here

I'm pretty shocked how cold it is down your way today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Gfs overall looks better tomorrow night in terms of precip and temps but wouldn’t surprise me to see some flakes tonight. 

Tonight is the better bet for me it would appear.  Moisture struggles to get this far north tomorrow night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty shocked how cold it is down your way today.

Certainly west of I-5. East of I-5 is cool but not nearly as cold.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The difference in 925s tomorrow night GFS vs ECMWF is ridiculous.  Not sure what to make of that.  GFS is about -4 and ECMWF +1 or +2.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Certainly west of I-5. East of I-5 is cool but not nearly as cold.

It's that easterly pressure gradient.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's that easterly pressure gradient.

Yup, that's why this is a shitty location for snow more than people think. We've gotten really lucky in the last decade.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's that easterly gradient.

Usually I thinkthat easterly gradient warms us up downsloping off of the west hills but today I guess it didn't make much of a difference. Not sure if it helps or hinders us during snow events.

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Just now, Doinko said:

Usually I thinkthat easterly gradient warms us up downsloping off of the west hills but today I guess it didn't make much of a difference. Not sure if it helps or hinders us during snow events.

Depends on the time of year or day. If this had come in at night or one week later we would be in business. Just unlucky this time.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Depends on the time of year or day. If this had come in at night or one week later we would be in business. Just unlucky this time.

Surprised it isn't warming up really. Has been 39-40 for the past few hours without any precip at all

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tonight is the better bet for me it would appear.  Moisture struggles to get this far north tomorrow night.

Remains to be seen if the overall over performance down in Oregon will bode well for us later on…maybe the models are running 1C warmer than reality at 850/925mb. Could also be  that was just due to the easterly gradient helping out the west valley and wouldn’t have any meaning for us. Right now I tend to think it was just the right set up for them down there and won’t mean anything for us and we just end up with cold rain for the most part…or maybe some brief non accumulating wet snow at best. 

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Pretty awesome to see snow this early in the season down in the south valley. Fairly historic event for most down there (and don’t worry TWL you’ve made it very clear you aren’t seeing anything and we all need to pity you)

The front was pretty dynamic moving through the Portland area this morning. Sharp wind shift to the NW and the temperature dropped from 47 degrees around 8am to 37 degrees around 11am. Still holding at just 41.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty awesome to see snow this early in the season down in the south valley. Fairly historic event for most down there (and don’t worry TWL you’ve made it very clear you aren’t seeing anything and we all need to pity you)

The front was pretty dynamic moving through the Portland area this morning. Sharp wind shift to the NW and the temperature dropped from 47 degrees around 8am to 37 degrees around 11am. Still holding at just 41.

Currently 36 in Eugene, 34 in Corvallis, 37 in Salem. Pretty good stuff for peak daytime heating. 

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16 minutes ago, MWG said:

 Finally starting to get some light rain 50F.

Hope you can get some snow soon!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Currently 36 in Eugene, 34 in Corvallis, 37 in Salem. Pretty good stuff for peak daytime heating. 

42F for a high here. Not too shabby for Nov 6. Currently 38F with some light rain.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The latest runs are indicating SEA may not reach 50 again until at least the 15th.  That is quite impressive for this early in the season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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