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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Around 1/2 an inch of wet snow here.   ECMWF nailed the timing and extent of the precip.   

It shows another band moving into the Seattle area this afternoon and precip lingering around the south Sound this evening... but 925mb temps will be significantly warmer tonight than last night.   

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-7887200 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-7887200 (1).png

When is it supposed to warm up?

Here is now.

a.png

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4 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

When is it supposed to warm up?

Here is now.

a.png

Here is the 06Z ECMWF loop of 925 temps through 10 p.m. tonight. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-1667800800-1667800800-1667887200-20.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some light snow here at 35F as the NE winds have picked up a bit.  You can definitely tell the airmass has changed as the snow isn’t wet. Small flakes blowing around in the breeze.  Official forecast is calling for up to 4” of snow here tonight as some moisture moves up from the south and is pushed across the island in the NE flow 

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49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Our timing might be great for weather in Florida... but I did not expect to miss a long stretch of sun and dry weather here when we decided to book this trip in November.    I assumed it would be raining every day here.  

Hurricane supposed to hit the Miami area in a couple days

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We are at almost 7" of precip now on the month. Models indicate we will not be getting much rain for awhile. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dang... I knew we should have moved to Bozeman!! Too bad it is so freaking expensive there!

This storm looks to royally screw the Sioux Falls area just enough where 95% of SD is covered in 3-5+ inches of snow while we barely get an inch. Track of the storm is just a few notches too far NNW. The bad snow luck I developed in Maple Valley appears to have followed me here. At least we will have the cold though.... I guess...

1668222000-583gQKSFYVQ.png

1667822400-souhhdpKHqQ.png

Ughh, still time for it drop SE a bit though. It wouldn't take much for you to score!

While the snowfall here is going to be impressive, the sustained cold for this early in the season is what's going to really stand out with this.

Screen Shot 2022-11-07 at 10.34.19 AM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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A cool morning but clear and sunny for the first time in awhile. Just noticed that our tree which was 100 percent covered last Monday is now at about half of it's leaves lost. 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Just now, LowerGarfield said:

A cool morning but clear and sunny for the first time in awhile. Just noticed that our tree which was 100 percent covered last Monday is now at about half of it's leaves lost. 

Did you get anymore snow? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are at almost 7" of precip now on the month. Models indicate we will not be getting much rain for awhile. 

Less than 1.5” here. Could be a very dry November up this way unless the final 3rd of the month turns active. 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you get anymore snow? 

No snow here. What about you, Andrew? But should be quite cold this week. There's a chance we could get lucky on Wednesday or at least NWS Spokane was thinking it was a possibility. Either way I'm still happy from last week.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Less than 1.5” here. Could be a very dry November up this way unless the final 3rd of the month turns active. 

The way things are looking the next 1-2 weeks, we could even end up dry this month, but at the very least would not be much below average. Looking like we could see a blocky at least first half of the winter, looks like dry and relatively coolish coming up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

No snow here. What about you, Andrew? But should be quite cold this week. There's a chance we could get lucky on Wednesday or at least NWS Spokane was thinking it was a possibility. Either way I'm still happy from last week.

We did well over the weekend. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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27 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dang... I knew we should have moved to Bozeman!! Too bad it is so freaking expensive there!

This storm looks to royally screw the Sioux Falls area just enough where 95% of SD is covered in 3-5+ inches of snow while we barely get an inch. Track of the storm is just a few notches too far NNW. The bad snow luck I developed in Maple Valley appears to have followed me here. At least we will have the cold though.... I guess...

1668222000-583gQKSFYVQ.png

1667822400-souhhdpKHqQ.png

You're going to have many more opportunities. This is just the beginning.

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32 and snizzling.  Tried to take the puppy out (first time seeing snow) for a pee break and all she wanted to do is eat the snow.  I'll have to wait until urgency>curiosity which is difficult to achieve with a golden retriever

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The way things are looking the next 1-2 weeks, we could even end up dry this month, but at the very least would not be much below average. Looking like we could see a blocky at least first half of the winter, looks like dry and relatively coolish coming up. 

We’ve crossed the threshold where dry weather predominantly means average or below average boundary layer temps overall.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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ULL offshore has slipped far enough south now that the upper level flow is offshore out here in my area so precip is probably done.    There was a band of precip coming up from the south over the last hour and it fell apart on arrival and the sun is back out already.    ECMWF shows almost no precip east of Seattle over the next 24 hours.    Upper levels are warming as well out here and 925mb temps should be around +3C by this afternoon.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dang... I knew we should have moved to Bozeman!! Too bad it is so freaking expensive there!

This storm looks to royally screw the Sioux Falls area just enough where 95% of SD is covered in 3-5+ inches of snow while we barely get an inch. Track of the storm is just a few notches too far NNW. The bad snow luck I developed in Maple Valley appears to have followed me here. At least we will have the cold though.... I guess...

1668222000-583gQKSFYVQ.png

1667822400-souhhdpKHqQ.png

On the bright side that temp drop Thursday to Friday looks dynamic AF. A lot of us west siders would kill for something like that along with an inch or two of snow.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’ve crossed the threshold where dry weather predominantly means average or below average boundary layer temps overall.

Seems like we’ve seen a lot of dry patterns in the Nov-Feb period in recent years that have still ended up warmer than average though. Would be nice if the next few weeks ended up different.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Lol, almost 8" of snow for Aberdeen by 4 PM tomorrow huh...?  Ya, no.

6+ inches at Brookings on 11/8 seems pretty exceptional. 12/8 on the other hand…

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.pngcdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

7 day change and overall anomaly looks like we're going to have a chance of developing a cool pool of water off our coast 

Water temp off our coast is pretty much irrelevant in the cold season... and debatable how much it matters in the warm season.    In the cold season... the upper levels definitely run the show.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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