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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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4 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Yeah, I was just hoping for snow or some type of icy precip because we didn't get any yesterday...

Yeah most people didn’t get anything either unfortunately…but it was never a slam dunk especially this early. Welcome to the forum though! I’m sure you’ll be here for some fun times of model riding and snow in just a few weeks. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah most people didn’t get anything either unfortunately…but it was never a slam dunk especially this early. Welcome to the forum though! I’m sure you’ll be here for some fun times of model riding and snow in just a few weeks. 

Yeah Thanks!

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Weather! Atmospheric conditions

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16 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’d imagine the immediate Tacoma area near Puget Sound is one of the worst spots for snow in the Puget Sound area. 

 

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

As much as Tacoma sucks, at least it’s not the swamp lol

 Yeah the swamp area (Puyallup, Sumner and Auburn) are terrible for snow chances. Even worse than here definitely the worst place to live if you like snow. I lived in auburn for a couple years and Tacoma had more snow almost every time. Atleast it’s not as bad here as it is in Eugene 😂

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

 

 Yeah the swamp area (Puyallup, Sumner and Auburn) are terrible for snow chances. Even worse than here definitely the worst place to live if you like snow. I lived in auburn for a couple years and Tacoma had more snow almost every time. Atleast it’s not as bad here as it is in Eugene 😂

Does the east wind dry them out reducing precip there?

Not really sure how well my area does for snow at around 250', seems to be about average for the Portland metro area.  Sometimes we do great (18" in 2016/2017) and other times not as well (5" in 2017/2018 compared to 7.6" at PDX and 4.5" in 2020/2021 compared to 10.1" at PDX since we had more sleet)

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Does the east wind dry them out reducing precip there?

Not really sure how well my area does for snow at around 250', seems to be about average for the Portland metro area.  Sometimes we do great (18" in 2016/2017) and other times not as well (5" in 2017/2018 compared to 7.6" at PDX and 4.5" in 2020/2021 compared to 10.1" at PDX since we had more sleet)

Yeah I live near Bethany as well. It sucks that I haven't got snow, have you?

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Weather! Atmospheric conditions

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Looks like it's snowing in Anacortes right now which is more exposed to the outflow than I am.

20221107_anacortesSnow.jpeg.d224453b143b8b065c67ce15efe8eb13.jpeg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

 

 Yeah the swamp area (Puyallup, Sumner and Auburn) are terrible for snow chances. Even worse than here definitely the worst place to live if you like snow. I lived in auburn for a couple years and Tacoma had more snow almost every time. Atleast it’s not as bad here as it is in Eugene 😂

Federal Way  does just as bad right? I am north it now. Cracks me up that I moved from one end of the swamp to the other 😂

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Does the east wind dry them out reducing precip there?

Not really sure how well my area does for snow at around 250', seems to be about average for the Portland metro area.  Sometimes we do great (18" in 2016/2017) and other times not as well (5" in 2017/2018 compared to 7.6" at PDX and 4.5" in 2020/2021 compared to 10.1" at PDX since we had more sleet)

East wind usually isn’t a problem there unless it’s a very strong east wind event. Something like February 2021 for example we had 15” of snow since we were just a few miles far enough west to cancel out the drying winds. With totals being cut almost in half 10 miles east. The “Swamp”  is all very low elevation and some UHI makes it snow hell. There were quite a few times living down in auburn I could see Lea hill up at 400’ was getting sticking snow while it was a mix down at my house. 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

 

 Yeah the swamp area (Puyallup, Sumner and Auburn) are terrible for snow chances. Even worse than here definitely the worst place to live if you like snow. I lived in auburn for a couple years and Tacoma had more snow almost every time. Atleast it’s not as bad here as it is in Eugene 😂

Is there a reason for why that is? I thought those towns were a bit farther inland just enough so the moderation of water doesn't have a bigger effect on snow chances? Or it doesn't matter cause they're right at sea level anyway?

I commute a lot between Puyallup and South Hill, and during cold waves where the snow level is just at 500', it couldn't be more obvious how higher up South Hill is.

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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Just now, HuskyMaestro said:

Is there a reason for why that is? I thought those towns were a bit farther inland just enough so the moderation of water doesn't have a bigger effect on snow chances? Or it doesn't matter cause they're right at sea level anyway?

I commute a lot between Puyallup and South Hill, and during cold waves where the snow level is just at 500', it couldn't be more obvious how higher up South Hill is.

Yeah it’s just the elevation being 0-100’ for the most part. Even though I’m less than a mile from the sound I’m at 300’ and will get more snow than puyallup/auburn in a marginal set up. 

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1 hour ago, Olive1010 said:

I've been looking at a couple of models and GFS says we could get some snow or freezing rain in the night of Friday-Morning on Saturday. What do you guys think?

Probably a little early to say still. From what I've seen, GFS tends to overdo cold in winter and heat in summer. So take it with a grain of salt. 

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33 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Federal Way  does just as bad right? I am north it now. Cracks me up that I moved from one end of the swamp to the other 😂

Had a coworker who lives in Federal Way. They can do well, but it has to set up just right. The Sound can screw up some things and it can get shadowed/donut holed but it doesn't seem to lose the cold air quite as fast as Puyallup and Auburn do. Not sure what makes their microclimate work, but occasionally they do better than other cities nearby.

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Trying to make an accurate, high resolution map of average annual snowfall of Western Washington would be a really interesting albeit very challenging project. There are definitely places that see 2-3 times as much as others within quite short distances.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here's a thought. If we establish a good Columbia Basin cold pool we just need a suppressed jet into California with a system approaching from the southwest for us to score, specifically PDX metro/Gorge. Something to think about.

ECMWF was showing some systems undercutting that massive ridge after the backdoor blast! That cold pool building is great to see. First this cold wave and then potentially another backdoor event.

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