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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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Looks like my daughter has her 2nd consecutive snow day!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Still flurries here. Ended up with about 2.5”

Your location has a pretty ideal climate IMO. 

Extremely jealous of that August average high. Your winter time averages are a couple degrees warmer than here, but you also get arctic air much more frequently than us. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Currently 29.8 degrees. First freeze of the season! Power came on at 1am this morning…We had a lot of non generator circuit lights on at 10:30pm Friday night apparently! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Currently 29.8 degrees. First freeze of the season! Power came on at 1am this morning…We had a lot of non generator circuit lights on at 10:30pm Friday night apparently! 

Glad your power finally came back on! That's a long time to be on the generator. Been there done that... What kind of generator do you have again? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like we have dropped to 30 now under clearing skies. The deciduous trees got crushed… 

D148E4D2-50BF-40D9-82E4-59E16B1F242B.jpeg

51E9F095-702A-4F95-B2C6-01BA9DC78652.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 29.8 degrees. First freeze of the season! Power came on at 1am this morning…We had a lot of non generator circuit lights on at 10:30pm Friday night apparently! 

Our power went out Friday night, and luckily came back on around 2am....unluckily, we had about every light on in the house and I didn't turn them off.....kinda reminded me when  'ole Clark Grizwald finally got the Christmas lights to work and there was this sudden blinding light

 

 

Christmas-Vacation-Clark-Griswold-Lights.jpg

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Been hovering around 29 pretty much all night.  We got just enough snow to turn everything white, but it stopped by about 9:30 or so.  Most of it has evaporated in the very dry air coming out with the Frasier outflow.

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We actually lost power about 1-2am on Saturday morning. Around 8am I decided to go out and turn the generator on, but the power came back on. Five minutes later it went off, then discovered we were out of gas, went to town to get gas and the power came back on while I was gone. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

IMG_0091.thumb.jpeg.63b5b031b7e08f8ec8fa18c53cda6180.jpeg

Awesome pic... looks about the same as it did here yesterday.    But I think your snow looks drier.   Our snow was heavy and very wet.   It didn't drop below 32 here when it was snowing and it was almost all gone by noon with the dewpoint above freezing all day yesterday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Awesome pic... looks about the same as it did here yesterday.    But I think your snow looks drier.   Our snow was heavy and very wet.   It didn't drop below 32 here when it was snowing and it was almost all gone by noon with the dewpoint above freezing all day yesterday.

You are correct. Our snowfall started above freezing and ended below it. Around 30˚F right now.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

Wonder what the other earlier years were... Let's throw 1991 out. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just reviewing the ENSO. Everyone keeps wanting to kill off this Nina, but here we are well into November and we still have the ENSO 3.4 region sporting a -1.1C departure. Looks like we stay below -0.5C through the end of January, and are in negative neutral conditions until about April. By summer 2023 a Nino is ramping up. Elephant in the room is that by then we will be coming off our best winter of the Century and due for a a bit of a DUD. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just reviewing the ENSO. Everyone keeps wanting to kill off this Nina, but here we are well into November and we still have the ENSO 3.4 region sporting a -1.1C departure. Looks like we stay below -0.5C through the end of January, and are in negative neutral conditions until about April. By summer 2023 a Nino is ramping up. Elephant in the room is that by then we will be coming off our best winter of the Century and due for a a bit of a DUD. 

 

All the models I have seen showed the Nina bottoming out in November... which seems to be what is happening.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Glad your power finally came back on! That's a long time to be on the generator. Been there done that... What kind of generator do you have again? 

This guy right here…The previous owners left it with the house, it’s been a workhorse! 

5AD341D3-FD11-48CB-939D-64438AFAD188.jpeg

22035284-0F06-4042-9D9C-186BDA699254.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

All the models I have seen showed the Nina bottoming out in November... which seems to be what is happening.

 For all intents and purposes we will have a technical Nina through January, it's effects lingering for some time thereafter. I hope you have the snow blower ready. Though a cold dry month in mid-winter would not shock me.  

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 For all intents and purposes we will have a technical Nina through January, it's effects lingering for some time thereafter. I hope you have the snow blower ready. Though a cold dry month in mid-winter would not shock me.  

Snow blower is ready!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking back at November 1945 and 1973 as they both had significant onshore flow type cold snaps around this time. Both of those months ended up being extremely wet, with 18 and 25" of precip respectively. Probably will not be that wet this month, but hard to say given the recent wet turn on the models and huge start we have had to the month. Even Salem has already nearly equaled their average November rainfall. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What few leaves are still on the trees here after the windstorm should be taken care of by this chilly week! 
29.7 currently. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1973-74 was pretty wild up here. 62" of precip November-January. Also that stretch in early January featured 10 sub-20 lows in the first 11 days of the month, with 4 straight lows in the single digits. No snow cover down here for that one though. No precip fell until the 12th and still ended up with 16" on the month. February and March were a little above normal on the precip front with a couple decent snowfalls. 

1945-46 was a decent winter, not too exciting overall up here, a little bit above average for precip, temps close to normal, maybe a bit above, there was snow every month November-March, with the biggest event being the one in early November and late January.  

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 For all intents and purposes we will have a technical Nina through January, it's effects lingering for some time thereafter. I hope you have the snow blower ready. Though a cold dry month in mid-winter would not shock me.  

I wouldn't be shocked if we go into a neutral year before we head into el Nino. Would be cool to see us make a first time ever 4th year Nina though. 

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Low of 35 here with some clearing. After a chilly 43/36 spread yesterday.

East wind started ramping up in the last half hour or so, and it’s up to 39. The big arctic blast day, that was originally forecast to have highs in the upper 30s to around 40, is here! Let’s see if PDX can stay below 52-53.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Andrew is drunk on snow cover!!!

I just posted about 1500 words about the 1945/1973 comps on the community FB page. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Low of 35 here with some clearing. After a chilly 43/36 spread yesterday.

East wind started ramping up in the last half hour or so, and it’s up to 39. The big arctic blast day, that was originally forecast to have highs in the upper 30s to around 40, is here! Let’s see if PDX can stay below 52-53.

From a historical standpoint this event is probably more uncommon than some continental bleed through the gorge. Highs in the 30s with full sunshine at PDX was never going to happen, I tried to tell y'all. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

From a historical standpoint this event is probably more uncommon than some continental bleed through the gorge. Highs in the 30s with full sunshine at PDX was never going to happen, I tried to tell y'all. 

Not with full sunshine, but they pulled off a high of 38 on 11/13/14. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

From a historical standpoint this event is probably more uncommon than some continental bleed through the gorge. Highs in the 30s with full sunshine at PDX was never going to happen, I tried to tell y'all. 

Even when the GFS is right about arctic outflow potential (and it often does pick up on it first), it always waaaaay overdoes the cold air advection. This is hardly the first time, and it won’t be the last, either.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not with full sunshine, but they pulled off a high of 38 on 11/13/14. 

Yeah, and I guess some of the wilder runs may have had more moisture in the mix this week... Outside of a freak event like 1955, it's tough to get highs below 40 with full sun before Thanksgiving (Or even after, or really any point in the season around here anymore...). Other than like 1991, it's really tough to find a cold snap the first 7-10 days of November that didn't lead to something decent. I get it, the lows are going to be a little disappointing from this, but PDX still scored a high of 45 yesterday and SLE only hit 43. 
 

BTW it appears the 43 at SLE yesterday was a record min max. Beating out a record that had stood since 1945. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Thanks for SCHOOLIN me guys. I was never sold on the numbers the GFS was spitting out. Mostly just salty after going through about a half dozen historic warm events this summer and watching them all overachieve with absolute ease, then when we get our first chance for something notable on the other side of the coin it limps in as a ghost of its advertised self. I know, it’s to be expected.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thanks for SCHOOLIN me guys. I was never sold on the numbers the GFS was spitting out. Mostly just salty after going through about a half dozen historic warm events this summer and watching them all overachieve with absolute ease, then when we get our first chance for something notable on the other side of the coin it limps in as a ghost of its advertised self. I know, it’s to be expected.

I get it. The cold season equivalent of our July-October would be November 1985, December 1919, January 1930, February 2019. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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