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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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10 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I remember posting on The Western Weather Forums back in 2007. I think my screen name was Purcell Trench or something like that. You and I had a bit of a tussle in 2009. I didn't post much after that. I joined the new forum in 2016 as snow drift. I posted here and there. You and I, for whatever reason, have never gotten along. I can't figure out what your problem is. I don't have any problem with you. If I have wronged you in the past, please forgive me. I just want to live at peace with everyone. I think I may mostly lurk from now on. I'll view the site solely for information, because it is such a great resource. I hope you have a great winter and you get a healthy dose of snow and cold. β„πŸŒ¬β›„πŸ‘

snow drift

You were snow drift? Ah very cool. I hope you don't only lurk I enjoy your participation and model riding too much for that.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Mostly all gone in the lowlands but the mountains have been spectacular against the blue sky.

Low clouds are blossoming again between Seattle and the coast now... and most of the lowlands will have low clouds tomorrow morning that will be slow to clear.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, administrator said:

I remember 2012 and 1996(?).

In 2012, I was living in Bellevue, just next to the Microsoft campus. We were just on ZR/GR/SN line, with a coworker in Seattle getting snow, DT Bellevue getting graupel, and Renton south getting freezing rain. Bonney Lake was hit hard with nearly every parking lot tree seeing some damage and some stands of cottonwoods getting shredded. My parents lost power for a day and all of the remaing snow had been glazed over.

1996 was the big one, but I can't find much (I'm not looking that hard, so that might be the problem), but I do remember that Bonney Lake had a couple inches of ice, with branches and power lines down everywhere. I think that was the same storm where the Everett marina collapsed.

As for the topography, on a macro scale it could work, at least Tacoma to Stanwood, where marine or continental influence isn't as direct. The valleys though, like the Snohomish, Green River, and Snoqualmie, would get wrecked, and with some of the new transmission lines up since 1996, I'd expect it'd be crippling.

Yeah, historically it's just very difficult for places more exposed to the Strait to maintain freezing rain in a warm air advection scenario. Much like with the coastline and Olympic Peninsula, any significant WAA aloft will usually result in a relatively uniform mixing in short enough order (<12 hours) to where significant icing is almost unheard of. So that area from about Mukilteo to Anacortes is usually pretty exempt, at least from I-5 west.

Seattle southward and of course further east of I-5, and obviously Whatcom County north of the Chuckanuts, has enough exposure to low level easterly outflow to where there's much more precedent for at least moderate icing in the right scenario.Β 

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1 hour ago, umadbro said:

Anyone else notice weatherbell EURO stopped at hour 144 or is that just me? 12z that is.

No... it finished on time.Β  Β  Are you looking at 3-hour precip because that only goes out to 144 hours.Β  Β 1 hour precip goes to 90 hours, 3 hour to 144, and 6 hour to 240.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Up to 37 degrees. Still lots of frost in the shade. .01” of melted frost on the day.Β 

3270DD31-CB77-457C-92F7-77619CF70205.jpeg

Do you have power yet?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days withΒ  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Do you think November will end up cold in the PNW? I'm hoping for an arctic blast at the end of the month.

Cold seems like a lock if its going to stay dry... dry periods from November - January almost always run colder than normal.Β  Β But that does not mean anything about arctic air and snow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Low temp 26.6 hard freeze!

So far I've ended up with a 43/27 today.Β  That's cold for this time of year.Β  SEA got their first freeze last night as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

Β 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Β 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Β 

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Looks like the GFS is somewhat consistent on giving us a cold shot a bit down the road.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

Β 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Β 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Β 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS is somewhat consistent on giving us a cold shot a bit down the road.

Hopefully the EC comes around.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (JanΒ 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (JanΒ 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24Β (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4Β (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024Β (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

Β 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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5 hours ago, Sonny Summers said:

My brother lives in Granite Falls. He had a pretty significant ice storm in January 2012. He had to remove some trees that were permanently damaged. I'm not sure how widespread the ice storm was that year.

It was bad here too.Β  I wasn't aware they had ice so far north.Β  The 850mb warm tongue really likes to climb up the West Slopes of the Cascades.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

Β 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Β 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Β 

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Got down to a chilly 25 degrees last night. I had a feeling it was going to happen once temps started plummeting after sunset. Got to a high of 42 today. Currently sitting at 41.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Got down to a chilly 25 degrees last night. I had a feeling it was going to happen once temps started plummeting after sunset. Got to a high of 42 today. Currently sitting at 41.

Another crisp day for sure.Β  Temp already falling with a current temp of 42.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

Β 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Β 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Β 

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4:30pm and 35F outside. Cold!

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days withΒ  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

Do you have power yet?

Yes! It came on at 1am yesterday morning! Still a few thousand without though.Β 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth!Β 

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Why is it so hard for us to avoid persistent ridging? Outside of the most recent couple of weeks, we have been ridging consistently since mid-June.Β 
Β 

For the people that think it is gloomy and rainy endlessly for 9 months here, I would love to know what 9 months those are.Β 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Mid October through mid June is usually frequently gloomy and wet... a little bit less so in May and June.Β  Β But generally that 8-month period.Β  Β That is our climo.Β  Β  Β Its considerably more gloomy and damp here than in most places in the country during that time frame.Β  Β  Β And then the script flips from mid June into early October and we have some of the driest and sunniest weather in the country normally.Β Β 

This is not typical November weather.Β  Β 

And you live in a place that averages 210 dry days per year.Β  Β So dry days are the default over the course of an entire year per climo.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This fall despite the chilly weather so far this month and coming up will overall be much warmer and drier than normal. In terms of temps…we may end up decently below normal by the time the 20th rolls around but I’d bet on some AR and mild SW flow rains later this month to bump the averages.Β 
Β In terms of rainfall most places this month aren’t far off average besides the central Puget sound and maybe the far south Willamette valley. I’m guessing most places probably finish close to or average rainfall.

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This fall despite the chilly weather so far this month and coming up will overall be much warmer and drier than normal. In terms of temps…we may end up decently below normal by the time the 20th rolls around but I’d bet on some AR and mild SW flow rains later this month to bump the averages.Β 
Β In terms of rainfall most places this month aren’t far off average besides the central Puget sound and maybe the far south Willamette valley. I’m guessing most places probably finish close to or average rainfall.

Its not normal to go 2 weeks with no rain in November... and it probably won't happen.Β  Β  But I am playing out Josh's scenario per the current models.Β  Β  And its very possible we have a couple more AR events toward the end of the month and end up wetter than normal.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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#noridgenovemberΒ 

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"Let's mosey!"

Β 

--Cloud Strife

Β 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Β 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

Β 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

Β 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

Β 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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