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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nah. Just making predictions. I’ve actually had a surprisingly good track record this year 

Predicting one worst case scenario nightmare after another? :(

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That def could be the solution.  hoping we see a little more retrograding of that ridge but we'll just have to wait and see.

Whenever there is a ridge over us between November and February there is always retrogression talk 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Predicting one worst case scenario nightmare after another? :(

Mild and wet wouldn’t be all bad. As has been stated, we need the rain. Also, a month that came out close to normal overall would seem pretty chilly compared to July-Oct!

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Whenever there is a ridge over us between November and February there is always retrogression talk 

Most of the speculation on this forum in the winter is not realistic. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We should really make an effort to keep the mood positive as we go into boring phases like this. Painting a bleak picture for real winter wx over the next couple weeks isn't an absurd thing to do right now. I enjoy the optimism and pessimism personally. 

I'm just here hoping the cold air mass bottles up close enough to get one of those big model swings with around 3 days notice. The best winter wx always seems to come with late model shifts triggering outflow. There's a chance! 

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We will be fine.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Winter hasn’t even begun yet. The COLD and SNOW will come!

Yep. I've been all-in since the summer.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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It’s November 10th. We know we won’t see meaningful cold or snow through about Thanksgiving. But that’s true in 90% of Winters.
 

No reason to be worried at this point about much other than the fact we won’t see any more mountain snow through the 20th at least which only leaves a couple weeks to get the bases built up and the ski areas opened up. But they also have more snow than usual from the last couple weeks.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Trying to keep that all together.  So you're saying we have some variability beyond day 10

I think you’re looking at the high precip amounts being shown by some members 

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Omg guys! 

0B0A6A1D-56F0-425E-BEC7-AFC40062200A.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Up to 47 for today. Managed to go down to 29 last night but went back up to 30 right before midnight so only a low of 30 today. Looks like it may not go below freezing tonight with the cloud cover that’s supposed to be around.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Uhhhh 

DABCBF89-6B26-4355-A1BD-94DDA00EFD83.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhh 

DABCBF89-6B26-4355-A1BD-94DDA00EFD83.png

This is just bizarre. Even for Portland NWS.

We are taking about a period that is 10-14 days away still and some models are still basically dry through then too. Seems irresponsible and unnecessary to tweet that out in that way. 

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is just bizarre. Even for Portland NWS.

We are taking about a period that is 10-14 days away still and some models are still basically dry through then too. Seems irresponsible and unnecessary to tweet that out in that way. 

I had to do a double take. Thought maybe they were hacked by Kevin Martin. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is just bizarre. Even for Portland NWS.

We are taking about a period that is 10-14 days away still and some models are still basically dry through then too. Seems irresponsible and unnecessary to tweet that out in that way. 

Guess we're all bored of the immediate weather pattern 

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7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is just bizarre. Even for Portland NWS.

We are taking about a period that is 10-14 days away still and some models are still basically dry through then too. Seems irresponsible and unnecessary to tweet that out in that way. 

Confuse the people. Part of Rockefeller's plan. "Willful waste makes woeful want."

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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15 minutes ago, North_County said:

So how do you all balance in your minds your excitement about extreme weather with the knowledge that those same conditions cause suffering and heartbreak for others?

It’s rather easy for me not to feel guilt. It’s not as if my fascination with severe weather causes it. The severe weather is going to happen (or not) whether or not I get excited about it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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21 minutes ago, North_County said:

Since the models are pretty quiet right now, I wanted to ask a question in the form of a story. And it feels somewhat timely, with the one-year anniversary of the flood that nearly wiped out my town less than a week away. My apologies in advance if this gets a bit long. Keep scrolling if you're not interested.

Anyway, I knew the base details of my dad's evacuation to higher ground even before the waters had stopped rising, because I was in text communication with my mom. My grandmother had been staying with them for the previous week since she had just been released from the hospital and needed the help of my mother (a retired nurse) administering medication. As I'll get to later, this probably saved my mom's life. We have about 16 hours from overflow at Everson to floodwaters reaching Sumas. The night before the flood hit, knowing it was imminent, my parents made the decision that my mom would take my grandma right away to Lynden, while my dad stayed home continuing to raise and save what he could, because they knew it would be impossible to evacuate my grandma if it came to that. After a full night of working, worrying and praying, floodwater hit like a freight train; a fitting metaphor since a dozen rail cars were derailed and knocked over by the force of the water. I've heard from city officials that they estimate water rose as much as 3 feet in 5 minutes in some parts of town. From my experience, this is probably accurate. At my house, relatively higher than much of town, we went from "hey look, it's trickling down the street," to "it's coming down from the backyard," to "crap, we gotta find a way to move the cars even higher," to "if this doesn't stop soon, it will be in the house" all in the span of what seemed like 10 minutes. For my dad, whose house sits much lower (they eventually lost almost everything with more than 3 feet of water in the house), he was faced with the realization that the water was flowing so fast and so deep, and became worried if he waited too long he wouldn't even be able to be evacuated.  He threw on his chest waders, trudged through waist deep water, and was eventually pulled into a boat to be taken to safety. I knew all of this already, but I always kind of suspected there was more to the story. My dad is proud, and I could tell he was holding back.

Just this week, I found out from my mom that several months later, he finally admitted to her how bad it had gotten. After fleeing the house, he got to the end of the driveway, less than 30 feet from his front door, and immediately realized he had made a mistake. The water wasn't waist deep. It was chest deep, nearly to his neck, and flowing like a river. He reached out for whatever he could find, the nearby utility pole, and pulled himself up, wrapping his arms and legs around it while he hung on for, literally, his dear life. It was between 30 minutes and an hour before help came in the form of a rescuer on a flat-bottomed boat that spotted him from the end of the street. In that time, he was mentally preparing himself for what he felt was inevitable, saying his goodbyes in his head. The rescuers had to pry his hands apart, he was gripping the power pole so hard. My dad is a fit man, but he is closer to 70 than he is to 60. He almost became our town's only fatality. I'm convinced, now that I know the details, that my mom would have died (and possibly my dad as well trying to save her) if she had tried to evacuate with him, rather than leaving the night before like she did.

Congratulations, you made it this far. Now for the question.  Like everyone else in this forum, severe weather excites me. We wouldn't waste so much time here if it didn't. But at the same time, I intuitively know that severe weather oftentimes brings with it fear, panic, destruction and death. I love hot, dry weather in the summer, but I know it can result in wildfires for some. Ice and snowstorms cause deadly accidents. Windstorms cause trees to fall, resulting in damage and death. Tornadoes, hurricanes, all more of the same. I have been fascinated with floods for as long as I can remember. I did my sixth grade science project on floods, and my mom had to put a hard limit on how many times I was allowed to call the automated flood gage hotline,  a number I knew by heart. So how do you all balance in your minds your excitement about extreme weather with the knowledge that those same conditions cause suffering and heartbreak for others? I struggle with this dilemma significantly, even more so over the past year. It's why I had to take a break from the forum the last half of last winter, because I couldn't deal with the internal confliction anymore.

Anyway, that was a lot. Thanks for reading, and thanks for letting me vent for a minute. This is a stressful time for my family and my community, and so many memories are getting stirred up. And I am genuinely interested in how you all deal with this.

People are fascinated by all kinds of extreme and dangerous things. Think about WWII historians. They shouldn’t feel any guilt about it and neither should we because neither of us cause it.

If anything, our early warnings to friends and family about dangerous weather could help them prepare.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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