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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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Looks like 48/28 here today.  The beat rolls on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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50 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The 12z GEFS, CMCE, and EPS all agree on a pattern change or re-set to wetter weather after Day 8. Here are the Rainfall totals Day 8-16 and Day 8-15 for the EPS.

floop-gefsens-2022111212.qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_nw.gif

floop-cmceens-2022111212.qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_nw.gif

floop-epsens-2022111212.qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_nw(1).gif

It won't take long for blocking to rebuild (probably further west) with the current MJO wave in progress.  Should be a window for rain and snow in the mountains in between blocks.  Maybe some lowland snow going into the next big trough.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's about 36-40 degrees in Moscow and it would feel great if not for the wind.  Clear skies except a few patchy clouds to the south. Glad the the Vandals play indoors. Still some snow on north facing hills but mostly gone. Cheering for the visitors so glad it is indoors. I thought about going to the Cougars game first but decided to stay inside. Without the wind it would feel warmer than the last few days. Just waiting for them to open up.

 

16682909209766850521570139397443.jpg

IMG_20221112_140132488.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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51 at my back door.  Nice and cold at night and the sun is beautiful but I wouldn't call this an exceptional pattern or anything that gets my motor running.

A high of 40 and a low of 25 with sun, now you're talking.

Ready for some rain to be honest with you.

Put up my Holiday Lights today and soon the Holiday Tree will be up in the family room.

 

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I'm really digging this dry, cool weather. Getting rarer as our planet grows ever warmer and wetter.

I'm confident the rains will come back with a vengeance, probably sooner than we expect. Just going to enjoy not being soaked at the bus stop in the morning for now. :)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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58 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm really digging this dry, cool weather. Getting rarer as our planet grows ever warmer and wetter.

I'm confident the rains will come back with a vengeance, probably sooner than we expect. Just going to enjoy not being soaked at the bus stop in the morning for now. :)

Might depend on location. Longer, hotter and drier summers are becoming the norm around here. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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59 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm really digging this dry, cool weather. Getting rarer as our planet grows ever warmer and wetter.

I'm confident the rains will come back with a vengeance, probably sooner than we expect. Just going to enjoy not being soaked at the bus stop in the morning for now. :)

I'm not convinced about the cloudier / wetter part of your post.  No doubt it has gotten warmer over the past 100 years due to bouncing back for the little ice age though.  I think we will have a good deal of cold and clear weather this winter.  Probably some wet periods similar to earlier this month though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Another GFS run that keeps thing very blocky throughout the run.  It retrogrades overall later in the run, however.  With a big MJO wave blocking somewhere between 170W and 130W seems likely to continue.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow!  The MJO is really jacked on this update.  Phase 7 is the most likely one to bring cold to the west.

GEFS.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

These kind of November dry spells often lead to really good stuff later.  In 2000 we narrowly missed getting crushed by the December cold blast.  Obviously we got blasted in Dec 2013, then you have years like 1936.

It would probably be pretty rare to not see at least 1 event in a winter where arctic air at least makes a close pass by the PNW.  The exception would probably be El Niño driven blow Torches. 

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It would probably be pretty rare to not see at least 1 event in a winter where arctic air at least makes a close pass by the PNW.  The exception would probably be El Niño driven blow Torches. 

Even 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 had some brushes with arctic air

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I was able to watch the Cougs game here on the Pac-12 Network... which is crazy because we can't do that at home thanks to DirecTV.     It looked raw and cold in Pullman... currently 28 with fog there.    So much nicer on the west side today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Go Ducks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They look like little bumble bees out there. 

Down to 39! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, Terreboner said:

Working on a 30.6 Hi, 26.4 Low, day.  Currently 29.7

Not too shabby.

This has been a top tier cold snap for the first half of November.  Even in the Western Lowlands the average for the first third of the month was easily in the coldest 5% to 10%

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

February 2014 nice arctic blast and snow. I remember that vividly due to a snowball going down my pants near my bu'hole. Brrrr!

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 55 minutes

It sucked up here. This was all we got. 🤮

4E80C89C-0FE0-40A5-8039-49E0E7A11186.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That'll do the job. Big league cold just in time for my November 29th prediction of PDX first snowfall.

00z GFS in 2 hour 47 minutes

I'm thinking we get nailed anywhere from late this month to early January.  I wish I could give a more specific time frame.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

February 2014 nice arctic blast and snow. I remember that vividly due to a snowball going down my pants near my bu'hole. Brrrr!

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 55 minutes

Yeah we ended up with a nice 9-10" of snow with that with blizzard conditions on the 6th. We also had a 22/18 day on 2/6 going by some stations in my area, which is amazing for February!

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

February 2014 nice arctic blast and snow. I remember that vividly due to a snowball going down my pants near my bu'hole. Brrrr!

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 55 minutes

I remember Winter 2020-2021 when it was very windy and cold because the moment you step outside in an exposed area with a lot of wind, the wind chill basically (and instantly) slaps you in the face like a brick wall!

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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It sucked up here. This was all we got. 🤮

4E80C89C-0FE0-40A5-8039-49E0E7A11186.jpeg

That and Dec 2013 were very disappointing for us compared to NW OR.  We have more than made up for it though.

In spite of the cold snaps being dry that winter they had some serious teeth.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

They look like little bumble bees out there. 

Down to 39! 

This is going to be a cold one.  Decent shot at lower max tomorrow than today as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That and Dec 2013 were very disappointing for us compared to NW OR.  We have more than made up for it though.

In spite of the cold snaps being dry that winter they had some serious teeth.

December 2013 was better in the South Valley up to about Albany. 7" of snow going into the cold snap with a 19/-10 day at Eugene! Here it was mostly dry with a dusting of snow.

February 2014 was absolutely amazing though. 2/6 the snow started, with about 6" of snow starting in the middle of the day with very strong east winds. Then another storm on the 7th and a final one with some snow/ice on the 8th, totalling about 9-10" of snow. I think places around Corvallis had over 18" of snow in those three days. And we had a high of 22 on the 6th which is very impressive for that late!

Some areas near Corvallis/Albany had 25"+ of snow that winter I'm guessing.

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

December 2013 was better in the South Valley up to about Albany. 7" of snow going into the cold snap with a 19/-10 day at Eugene! Here it was mostly dry with a dusting of snow.

February 2014 was absolutely amazing though. 2/6 the snow started, with about 6" of snow starting in the middle of the day with very strong east winds. Then another storm on the 7th and a final one with some snow/ice on the 8th, totalling about 9-10" of snow. I think places around Corvallis had over 18" of snow in those three days. And we had a high of 22 on the 6th which is very impressive for that late!

I was lucky enough to be in Eugene for that winter (after a previous major dud of a winter in 2012-13). Besides December 2008, it is my best winter memory in Oregon.

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It dropped to 28 here.  A week of highs well below 50 and 6 freezes now.  Pretty solid.

Eh we’ve had colder weather in early/mid November several times just in the last 5-10 years here. IMBY this has been nothing special. The monthly mean is pretty chilly though and should stay that way until the inevitable ARs return and bump us up closer to normal. 

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25 minutes ago, Doinko said:

December 2013 was better in the South Valley up to about Albany. 7" of snow going into the cold snap with a 19/-10 day at Eugene! Here it was mostly dry with a dusting of snow.

February 2014 was absolutely amazing though. 2/6 the snow started, with about 6" of snow starting in the middle of the day with very strong east winds. Then another storm on the 7th and a final one with some snow/ice on the 8th, totalling about 9-10" of snow. I think places around Corvallis had over 18" of snow in those three days. And we had a high of 22 on the 6th which is very impressive for that late!

Some areas near Corvallis/Albany had 25"+ of snow that winter I'm guessing.

 

30 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah we ended up with a nice 9-10" of snow with that with blizzard conditions on the 6th. We also had a 22/18 day on 2/6 going by some stations in my area, which is amazing for February!

I've probably posted this before but I thought I'd share again. Really nice event

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10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I wish you could too.  A nice 7 week window. 🍻 

I also think something will happen before the end of the year. My guess is a modest arctic outbreak on 12/20 with a few inches of snow turning over to 50 degree rain on Christmas Eve/Christmas day. 

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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Might depend on location. Longer, hotter and drier summers are becoming the norm around here. 

By wetter I am not just referring to precipitation specifically, but rather the vastly increased amount of H2O into the whole system. Summers are getting drier, yes, but also much more humid. And that's warmed nighttime lows significantly.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I have a feeling the Huskies have this one in the bag this year. Good things followed the following winters for here the last 2 times they won in this series that desperately needs a name. If the 2 teams get into the B1G then it can rightfully go at the end of the regular season where it should be. Would give a slightly increased chance of a snow event during the ballgame.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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