November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Chewbacca Defense]

59 minutes ago, North_County said:

Since the models are pretty quiet right now, I wanted to ask a question in the form of a story. And it feels somewhat timely, with the one-year anniversary of the flood that nearly wiped out my town less than a week away. My apologies in advance if this gets a bit long. Keep scrolling if you're not interested.

Anyway, I knew the base details of my dad's evacuation to higher ground even before the waters had stopped rising, because I was in text communication with my mom. My grandmother had been staying with them for the previous week since she had just been released from the hospital and needed the help of my mother (a retired nurse) administering medication. As I'll get to later, this probably saved my mom's life. We have about 16 hours from overflow at Everson to floodwaters reaching Sumas. The night before the flood hit, knowing it was imminent, my parents made the decision that my mom would take my grandma right away to Lynden, while my dad stayed home continuing to raise and save what he could, because they knew it would be impossible to evacuate my grandma if it came to that. After a full night of working, worrying and praying, floodwater hit like a freight train; a fitting metaphor since a dozen rail cars were derailed and knocked over by the force of the water. I've heard from city officials that they estimate water rose as much as 3 feet in 5 minutes in some parts of town. From my experience, this is probably accurate. At my house, relatively higher than much of town, we went from "hey look, it's trickling down the street," to "it's coming down from the backyard," to "crap, we gotta find a way to move the cars even higher," to "if this doesn't stop soon, it will be in the house" all in the span of what seemed like 10 minutes. For my dad, whose house sits much lower (they eventually lost almost everything with more than 3 feet of water in the house), he was faced with the realization that the water was flowing so fast and so deep, and became worried if he waited too long he wouldn't even be able to be evacuated.  He threw on his chest waders, trudged through waist deep water, and was eventually pulled into a boat to be taken to safety. I knew all of this already, but I always kind of suspected there was more to the story. My dad is proud, and I could tell he was holding back.

Just this week, I found out from my mom that several months later, he finally admitted to her how bad it had gotten. After fleeing the house, he got to the end of the driveway, less than 30 feet from his front door, and immediately realized he had made a mistake. The water wasn't waist deep. It was chest deep, nearly to his neck, and flowing like a river. He reached out for whatever he could find, the nearby utility pole, and pulled himself up, wrapping his arms and legs around it while he hung on for, literally, his dear life. It was between 30 minutes and an hour before help came in the form of a rescuer on a flat-bottomed boat that spotted him from the end of the street. In that time, he was mentally preparing himself for what he felt was inevitable, saying his goodbyes in his head. The rescuers had to pry his hands apart, he was gripping the power pole so hard. My dad is a fit man, but he is closer to 70 than he is to 60. He almost became our town's only fatality. I'm convinced, now that I know the details, that my mom would have died (and possibly my dad as well trying to save her) if she had tried to evacuate with him, rather than leaving the night before like she did.

Congratulations, you made it this far. Now for the question.  Like everyone else in this forum, severe weather excites me. We wouldn't waste so much time here if it didn't. But at the same time, I intuitively know that severe weather oftentimes brings with it fear, panic, destruction and death. I love hot, dry weather in the summer, but I know it can result in wildfires for some. Ice and snowstorms cause deadly accidents. Windstorms cause trees to fall, resulting in damage and death. Tornadoes, hurricanes, all more of the same. I have been fascinated with floods for as long as I can remember. I did my sixth grade science project on floods, and my mom had to put a hard limit on how many times I was allowed to call the automated flood gage hotline,  a number I knew by heart. So how do you all balance in your minds your excitement about extreme weather with the knowledge that those same conditions cause suffering and heartbreak for others? I struggle with this dilemma significantly, even more so over the past year. It's why I had to take a break from the forum the last half of last winter, because I couldn't deal with the internal confliction anymore.

Anyway, that was a lot. Thanks for reading, and thanks for letting me vent for a minute. This is a stressful time for my family and my community, and so many memories are getting stirred up. And I am genuinely interested in how you all deal with this.

It is definitely a conundrum...thunderstorms and tornados are my thing....On a trip back to Georgia for my sister's wedding in the late 90's, I drove through a very wide swath of tornado damage, I think it was an EF-4.  I was utterly fascinated by the destruction and could not get over how cool it was to witness the power of mother nature only to have a commercial come on the radio talking about a huge regional fundraiser for folks who had lost their homes/businesses, as well as the survivors who had lost loved ones.  This was a very economically depressed part of the state and undoubtedly those survivors needed the money to bury their loved ones.

As was stated above, people like us here on the weather forum can turn that interest and knowledge to try to help educate your friends and family.  Look at Randy Small and his Whatcom County weather page.  He was warning people about what was coming, and even got out there to help communicate the need for boats and life jackets.  I had not heard about how quickly the waters rose, but that certainly explains the sudden urgency and panic to get rescue boats and life jackets into the area.  Scary stuff. 

When we were trying to move out into the county, I had previous flood maps up on one tab and Redfin up on another tab, looking at where the house was in relation to previously flooded areas.  I have tried to guide friends who were home shopping the area with that knowledge as well.

Sounds like your dad's a tough ole bird and a fighter, but I would imagine he is going to get a little twitchy the next time the flood waters come to the area.

 

[Deweydog]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

But when will snow arrive?

I’m more curious when Cascadia will start to Wx?

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Omg guys! 

Looks like a hockey team.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhh 

Ridiculous. They need to see the 18z.

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, North_County said:

Anyway, that was a lot. Thanks for reading, and thanks for letting me vent for a minute. This is a stressful time for my family and my community, and so many memories are getting stirred up. And I am genuinely interested in how you all deal with this.

That is quite a story. I recall the floods and remember being concerned for the people who’s lives and property were in jeopardy. It sounds like you are a sensitive person that has gone through an emotional trauma concerning your family's welfare. It would be easy to tell you to stop feeling these things since you had nothing to do with them taking place, but I know thoughts like you are experiencing are not of the type you can just up and decide to stop. Obviously, there is a power in nature that we have little control over. Most of the time all we can do is try to get away from it, or just grit our teeth and get through it. Even though I can say I don’t look forward to devastating winds, rains etc. because that usually means a lot of preparation and work for me but that doesn’t mean I am not awed by the power shown by them. I see nothing wrong with looking forward to or being exhilarated at the promise of a powerful and potentially destructive weather event in the offing. It’s another part of nature, part of God’s creation which should inspire awe and wonder in all of us. Hopefully, like Bainbridgekid said earlier, our interest in the weather should give us an early perspective to help the vulnerable to prepare for what’s coming.

[Phishy Wx]

48 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

But when will snow arrive?

it's on Lay away

[ShawniganLake]

I think a big girthy blocking ridge is going to set up in the sweet spot late November or early December.  Take it to the bank. Done deal!

[GHweatherChris]

Well despite all of the unnecessary multiple maps and reminders yesterday about clouds rolling in overnight it still dropped down to 30° here this morning and was quite frosty yet again!!

[Snownerd3000]

26 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Well despite all of the unnecessary multiple maps and reminders yesterday about clouds rolling in overnight it still dropped down to 30° here this morning and was quite frosty yet again!!

Was it cloudy everywhere but the coast? 

[Terreboner]

Looking like tomorrow's weak low is looking a little less weak.  Perhaps we can upgrade it to "Mark Nelsen" strength.

[MossMan]

Should we start a separate cloud watch Nov. 2022 thread? Or a cloud contest thread? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

November dandelions hanging on! After 2 solid freezes. Props to them.

[snow_wizard]

Nice little cold snap.  SEA was running -6.0 for the month to date as of yesterday and today was another big minus.  Skies cleared out here just in time for another cold night.  46/35 here so far today.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's on Lay away

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS was one of the most perturbed runs I've seen in a while.  That huge block just keeps pumping up and reinventing itself.  Perhaps we will get a major cold event before the month is done.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

November dandelions hanging on! After 2 solid freezes. Props to them.

They never made a comeback here after the summer drought.  

[HuskyMaestro]

3 hours ago, North_County said:

Congratulations, you made it this far. Now for the question.  Like everyone else in this forum, severe weather excites me. We wouldn't waste so much time here if it didn't. But at the same time, I intuitively know that severe weather oftentimes brings with it fear, panic, destruction and death. I love hot, dry weather in the summer, but I know it can result in wildfires for some. Ice and snowstorms cause deadly accidents. Windstorms cause trees to fall, resulting in damage and death. Tornadoes, hurricanes, all more of the same. I have been fascinated with floods for as long as I can remember. I did my sixth grade science project on floods, and my mom had to put a hard limit on how many times I was allowed to call the automated flood gage hotline,  a number I knew by heart. So how do you all balance in your minds your excitement about extreme weather with the knowledge that those same conditions cause suffering and heartbreak for others? I struggle with this dilemma significantly, even more so over the past year. It's why I had to take a break from the forum the last half of last winter, because I couldn't deal with the internal confliction anymore.

Anyway, that was a lot. Thanks for reading, and thanks for letting me vent for a minute. This is a stressful time for my family and my community, and so many memories are getting stirred up. And I am genuinely interested in how you all deal with this.

I resonate with so much of this. My parents growing up were really concerned about me getting excited for severe / extreme weather and they reprimanded me for cheering for weather like snow. I still have the same feelings for snowstorms, blizzards, heat waves, typhoons. And speaking of typhoons, I'm fairly sure it was what got me into extreme weather back in the Philippines when I was a toddler, just watching the absolute deluge of rain and the howling winds that's coupled with blackouts. Super typhoons cause so much misery, pain, and death in my country, but deep down.. I feel heartless when I get excited for that kind of historical weather. I don't know, it sucks. 

I struggle with juggling the mindsets between excitement and caution too, and it shows the most with ice. At heart, I get excited for ice storms. But at the same time, I just couldn't cheer for ice knowing how utterly deadly that stuff is. Snow, on the other hand, I will root for snowstorms at the cost of my family scowling at me. It's just something they can't really understand, probably why they thought I was going to be a meteorologist or even a storm chaser. 

Please don't beat yourself up, you put my struggle with severe weather perfectly into words and know you're not alone at least. 

[Nov1985]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS was one of the most perturbed runs I've seen in a while.  That huge block just keeps pumping up and reinventing itself.  Perhaps we will get a major cold event before the month is done.

The butterfly is back! 

[Snownerd3000]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I immediately thought of this scene. You're a man of culture. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF weeklies had a pretty cold signal for mid December.  Not bad for that far out.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I immediately thought of this scene. You're a man of culture. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I resonate with so much of this. My parents growing up were really concerned about me getting excited for severe / extreme weather and they reprimanded me for cheering for weather like snow. I still have the same feelings for snowstorms, blizzards, heat waves, typhoons. And speaking of typhoons, I'm fairly sure it was what got me into extreme weather back in the Philippines when I was a toddler, just watching the absolute deluge of rain and the howling winds that's coupled with blackouts. Super typhoons cause so much misery, pain, and death in my country, but deep down.. I feel heartless when I get excited for that kind of historical weather. I don't know, it sucks. 

I struggle with juggling the mindsets between excitement and caution too, and it shows the most with ice. At heart, I get excited for ice storms. But at the same time, I just couldn't cheer for ice knowing how utterly deadly that stuff is. Snow, on the other hand, I will root for snowstorms at the cost of my family scowling at me. It's just something they can't really understand, probably why they thought I was going to be a meteorologist or even a storm chaser. 

Please don't beat yourself up, you put my struggle with severe weather perfectly into words and know you're not alone at least. 

There's nothing wrong with rooting for snow.  A large part of this country gets a lot of it.  I agree about ice though...that stuff is horrible.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

The butterfly is back! 

Those classic merging ridge scenarios.  The models have so much trouble resolving the outcome in those cases.  If we continue to see the kind of blocking we've had so far for most of the winter it's going to be amazing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I’m more curious when Cascadia will start to Wx?

Probably next time your mom does jumping jacks

[Nov1985]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Those classic merging ridge scenarios.  The models have so much trouble resolving the outcome in those cases.  If we continue to see the kind of blocking we've had so far for most of the winter it's going to be amazing.

I just realized I didn't grab the latest run from Pivotal. Sorry. The butterfly is now gone, but perhaps a bombing windstorm on the 20th? I guess that potential stream of lows is what the NWSCPC was tweeting about. I've been fixated on the cold air mass, not the storms.

[Iceresistance]

Holy -EPO! It's likely going to be the strongest negative EPO EVER for November!

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Holy -EPO! It's likely going to be the strongest negative EPO EVER for November!

PNA is slightly positive unfortunately. 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

PNA is slightly positive unfortunately. 

The #NoRidgeNovember may have aged poorly.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Edited November 11, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting... both 2014-15 and 2000-01 were blocky, splitty dry winters.

[Snownerd3000]

I know this is off topic but anyone following what is going on with FTX crypto exchange? 

[bainbridgekid]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting... both 2014-15 and 2000-01 were blocky, splitty dry winters.

Mid February 2001 had a big 5-10" snowstorm in the Seattle area but other than that both Winters were pretty lame.

[TacomaWx]

Got a cool new job doing water treatment/discharging water for construction sites. It’s been really fun to do but cool in a way because it’s also very dependent on the weather. If a big rainstorm comes I could be out on a jobsite for 18-24 straight hours possibly! My first week its kinda nice not having rain so that it’s a more calm intro to the job but should be really fun when a big AR event happens and I’m out getting lots of overtime! 

[RentonHill]

hot dang!

 

[RentonHill]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Got a cool new job doing water treatment/discharging water for construction sites. It’s been really fun to do but cool in a way because it’s also very dependent on the weather. If a big rainstorm comes I could be out on a jobsite for 18-24 hours possibly! My first week its kinda nice not having rain so that it’s a more calm intro to the job but should be really fun when a big AR event happens and I’m out getting lots of overtime! 

No more Freddys???? How will we know where to do our wellness checks??

[TacomaWx]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

No more Freddys???? How will we know where to do our wellness checks??

Lol yeah f*ck Kroger did not want to deal with working for a company like that anymore. I actually get to be outside all the time now which I love don’t want to be in a building/warehouse all day. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol yeah f*ck Kroger did not want to deal with working for a company like that anymore. I actually get to be outside all the time now which I love don’t want to be in a building/warehouse all day. 

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Mid February 2001 had a big 5-10" snowstorm in the Seattle area but other than that both Winters were pretty lame.

Looks like Mid February 2001 was ahead of its time. Sounds like every winter now. 

[snow_wizard]

Dare I ask why 2014 is even being brought up as any kind of analog to this year.

If we're talking about analogs I think 1936 needs to be mentioned.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Dare I ask why 2014 is even being brought up as any kind of analog to this year.

Because Tim is el Diablo and he only wishes for a repeat of 2015 in perpetuity