snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 The ECMWF certainly shows some inversionary cold in the day 5 day 6 time frame. Perfect surface pressure gradient. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Just now, NWbyNW said: Not sure why air quality is so poor over the PNW. Is it because of an inversion or something? There is some wildfire smoke in Western Oregon but it's pretty light. There is an inversion. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 It's a bummer the 00z GFS Op run was yet another outlier, because this would have been some cold, windy fun! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, umadbro said: Get used to inversions and glancing blows for the winter. Maybe quick half inch snow falls that quickly transition to ZR for a short time then to rain. I’d be shocked if anything notable happens this winter. and no, that’s not based on recent model runs. I doubt it. There will certainly be periods like you are talking about, but the blocking should move around. We just had a pretty epic trough after all. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: It's a bummer the 00z GFS Op run was yet another outlier, because this would have been some cold, windy fun! It could still happen. I think the GEM has shown similar. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 East wind blowing here. PDX-DLS -3.2mb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 In the grasping at straws segment of the night, Day 7 850s colder air trying to sneak in through the backdoor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 9 degrees in Waterville. One of the most incredible microclimates in the state. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 1-8 slight improvement? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Hmmmm. ECMWF makes a big move. 7 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z ECMWF Day 1-8 slight improvement? Yup. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 31 degrees. This cold snap is really doing well. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Still time for this to come around. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Day 6-8 quite significant improvement compared to previous runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Still time for this to come around. Absolutely and it wouldn't take too much to get there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Night shift folks? 1 3 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 35 here. Looks like EUG has already touched 32. Crystal clear skies. It's kind of cool seeing Mars hang out so close to the moon in the sky. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Freeze #3. Here's to hoping for a nice backdoor blast in a week or so. Perfect turkey weather. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Jeez. I don't know what's more fun. The 00z model runs tonight or stepping in dog shit barefoot. It's kind of a toss-up at this point, but I will closely evaluate the pros and cons, negatives or benefits of each with a side by side statistical comparison, graphs, artistic display, and full report later. 1 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Jeez. I don't know what's more fun. The 00z model runs tonight or stepping in dog barefoot. It's kind of a toss-up at this point, but I will closely evaluate the pros and cons, negatives or benefits of each with a side by side statistical comparison, graphs, artistic display, and full report later. I look forward to your thorough analysis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said: I look forward to your thorough analysis Don't tempt me. It's a boring night, with boring model runs. You have no idea how this could progress from this point. Completely off the rails. The word "Squishy" may be used a few times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Jeez. I don't know what's more fun. The 00z model runs tonight or stepping in dog barefoot. It's kind of a toss-up at this point, but I will closely evaluate the pros and cons, negatives or benefits of each with a side by side statistical comparison, graphs, artistic display, and full report later. The only thing I'll say is that, yes, the runs look like garbage right now. But in my untrained eye they also don't look that stable meaning that I wouldn't put too much stock on them holding on without some surprises down the road. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Just now, Dave said: The only thing I'll say is that, yes, the runs look like garbage right now. But in my untrained eye they also don't look that stable meaning that I wouldn't put too much stock on them holding on without some surprises down the road. Oh yeah, I agree. They aren't that bad. If the ridge offshore 'merges' sooner with the Aleutian ridge the evolving monster block would do so further west and the cut-off/kona low would be shunted further too. Likely? No. Probable? Maybe. It's not impossible. 6z GFS in 1 hour 39 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Wow! 10 in Omak and 2 in Winthrop right now. The low in Winthrop was -5. Straight up impressive for this time of year. 3 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Wow! 10 in Omak and 2 in Winthrop right now. The low in Winthrop was -5. Straight up impressive for this time of year. I assume there is snow on the ground in both places. I feel like an idiot typing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: I assume there is snow on the ground in both places. I feel like an idiot typing that. Yeah...they had a lot of snow. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 I ended up with 46/30 for Thursday. Chilly. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Temp: 41.5 balmy due to a breezy east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 We briefly hit 32F for freeze #3. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 43 at work, but the winds make it feel like 33. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 00z GFS Day 5.5 (Past 4 runs) .... Real thankful for this weather forum and all of you here to discuss weather it is helping me more in my life than I ever could have realize with difficult times. Not sure what I'd do without the forum and my fb group. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 It sure would be wonderful if the GEFS at Day 6 looks anything like the Op. Can always hope and dream right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Day 6.5 (Past 4 runs) I like this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Day 7.5 850s (Past 4 runs) Okay, that's pretty significant. Night Shift delivers again! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Day 8 850s (Past 4 runs) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Onto the GEFS. I wouldn't expect it to follow that Day 5-7, but any improvement would be swell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 No surprise, but NOPE. Onto 12z runs.... 12z GFS in 4 hours 33 minutes 12z ECMWF in 6 hours 43 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Cross-Cascade gradient 2 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: Cross-Cascade gradient Yeah a more sure bet would be a lot of offshore/easterly winds over the next 7-10 days. Could be gusty to strong for areas near/in the western Gorge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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