November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[MossMan]

Up to 47 but still some frost in the shade. For the first time this season the roads were terrible, the frost was so heavy that it looked like it snowed on the roads. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 56 in North Bend... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 this morning for our 10 straight sub freezing low. Beautiful day to drive the kids to the doctor.  

[Nov1985]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 56 in North Bend... 

Cherry blossoms just around the corner. I guess we're getting some credit for the spring wx that just didn't show up last spring. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Cherry blossoms just around the corner. I guess we're getting some credit for the spring wx that just didn't show up last spring. 

36 days until the Solstice and days getting longer 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 26F. Coldest day of the season so far.

[Snownerd3000]

The teleconnections are going to make things interesting next week.  AO, PNA and NAO all go negative while EPO goes positive.  With a +EPO and -PNA, would this look like a giant trough over the GoA going into the PNW?

 

I'm using this site to help me understand these teleconnections

Wx4cast: Teleconnections what the heck are they part two

[Guest administrator]

5 hours ago, Nov1985 said:

Some positive support near the end of GEFS range for mountain snowpack from around the start of December. Woo woo!

Great for sea ice too.

[Cold Snap]

Up to 51 after a low of 28. Looks like I’m going to pull of some quite impressive spreads for being west of the cascades these next few days. Thursday and Friday night look really chilly here.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

27 this morning for our 10 straight sub freezing low. Beautiful day to drive the kids to the doctor.  

10 straight is pretty darn good.  I'm at 8 straight now.  So far the east winds have yet to ruin even one cold night for me.

The models continue to show a little bit of deepening of the cold Friday through Sunday.

[snow_wizard]

53 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Up to 51 after a low of 28. Looks like I’m going to pull of some quite impressive spreads for being west of the cascades these next few days. Thursday and Friday night look really chilly here.

The ECMWF shows some places well below freezing by mid evening late week / this weekend.  Historically speaking the first half of November being cold bodes very well for the winter.  We shall see!

[snow_wizard]

It looks like SEA will probably come in at 42.7 for the first half of November.  The coldest since 1959!  That's 63 years ago for those keeping score.  This is even more impressive when you consider the area around SEA is much more developed now than it was then.

The top 5 years for cold first half of November for SEA are.

1946 - Cold winter

1948 - Very cold winter

1955 - Very cold winter

1959 - Average winter

1978 - Very cold winter

 

[Doinko]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It looks like SEA will probably come in at 42.7 for the first half of November.  The coldest since 1959!  That's 63 years ago for those keeping score.  This is even more impressive when you consider the area around SEA is much more developed now than it was then.

The top 5 years for cold first half of November for SEA are.

1946 - Cold winter

1948 - Very cold winter

1955 - Very cold winter

1959 - Average winter

1978 - Very cold winter

 

Portland had a high of 29 in early March 1960

[snow_wizard]

Average low of 32.3 IMBY for the first half of November.  That is flat out impressive.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Doinko said:

Portland had a high of 29 in early March 1960

Yeah.....even that winter wasn't a total dud.  The other 4 in the top 5 list were exceptionally cold.  Seems unlikely to be just chance.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It looks like SEA will probably come in at 42.7 for the first half of November.  The coldest since 1959!  That's 63 years ago for those keeping score.  This is even more impressive when you consider the area around SEA is much more developed now than it was then.

The top 5 years for cold first half of November for SEA are.

1946 - Cold winter

1948 - Very cold winter

1955 - Very cold winter

1959 - Average winter

1978 - Very cold winter

 

How many of those years had cold in early November from a persistent massive high pressure system and very warm air aloft and how many had actual cold air masses?

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah.....even that winter wasn't a total dud.  The other 4 in the top 5 list were exceptionally cold.  Seems unlikely to be just chance.

Wow seems like a pretty crazy event. Salem saw 8.5" of snow and two 33 degrees highs in early March. And a 7" snowstorm in January.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow seems like a pretty crazy event. Salem saw 8.5" of snow and two 33 degrees highs in early March. And a 7" snowstorm in January.

1959-60 was actually a great winter for NW OR and SW WA. Four separate snow events and extended gorge driven cold in January and then a major event in early March from what was one of the great arctic airmasses of the 20th century for North America.  Plus the mid November airmass, which despite being dwarfed by 1955, was still among the coldest on record for so early.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Thank y’all so much for helping me out with these rain gauges. I’ve mounted this one as high up on the fencepost that I can. Made sure it was as level as possible. Should ideally give a more accurate reading.

[snow_wizard]

As an added bonus today was 3 degrees lower for the max here than yesterday.  I expected it to actually be warmer.  Score!

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Thank y’all so much for helping me out with these rain gauges. I’ve mounted this one as high up on the fencepost that I can. Made sure it was as level as possible. Should ideally give a more accurate reading.

It'll probably never rain down here again now.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Thank y’all so much for helping me out with these rain gauges. I’ve mounted this one as high up on the fencepost that I can. Made sure it was as level as possible. Should ideally give a more accurate reading.

You're going to love it.  Just like mine.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1959-60 was actually a great winter for NW OR and SW WA. Four separate snow events and extended gorge driven cold in January and then a major event in early March from what was one of the great arctic airmasses of the 20th century for North America.  Plus the mid November airmass, which despite being dwarfed by 1955, was still among the coldest on record for so early.

Wow!  I'm going to have to look at that one again.

[Winterdog]

47 for a max today, the warmest since the 5th.  Had a low of 24, the 11th freeze for the month and 8th <30 in a row.

[Dave]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1959-60 was actually a great winter for NW OR and SW WA. Four separate snow events and extended gorge driven cold in January and then a major event in early March from what was one of the great arctic airmasses of the 20th century for North America.  Plus the mid November airmass, which despite being dwarfed by 1955, was still among the coldest on record for so early.

Like so many, looks like Eugene mainly missed out on much of the goods that winter. Oh well, it's nice to put 1959 behind us so we can move forward.

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How many of those years had cold in early November from a persistent massive high pressure system and very warm air aloft and how many had actual cold air masses?

I was wondering that as well.  Seems that 500mb patterns should be more important than surface obs when looking at analogs. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I was wondering that as well.  Seems that 500mb patterns should be more important than surface obs when looking at analogs. 

This one was a good mix of both scenarios.  850s below normal most of the time.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Dave said:

Like so many, looks like Eugene mainly missed out on much of the goods that winter. Oh well, it's nice to put 1959 behind us so we can move forward.

I'm betting Eugene did much better with the other 4 I listed.  

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

47 for a max today, the warmest since the 5th.  Had a low of 24, the 11th freeze for the month and 8th <30 in a row.

Wow!  Even that 47 is more than likely a couple of degrees below normal for you at this point.  Your month to date average must be nuts.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This one was a good mix of both scenarios.  850s below normal most of the time.

Not really in a meaningful way in our area.    The initial cold went south of us and then its been ridging and warm air aloft since then.   I think you might be stretching it to think this leads to the same path as if we had deep cold air parked over the PNW for the last 2 weeks.   

[MossMan]

Conflicting reports! 
 

But it’s coming. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not really in a meaningful way in our area.    The initial cold went south of us and then its been ridging and warm air aloft since then.   I think you might be stretching it to think this leads to the same path as if we had deep cold air parked over the PNW for the last 2 weeks.   

Hmmmm… though the airmass now is not cold, the only really warm stretch of upper level temps will only last a couple of days. So you are kind of presenting a misleading argument to make a point. 
 

This month is throwing off some into November 2000 vibes though. 

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm betting Eugene did much better with the other 4 I listed.  

45 was a bust.

48 was very good.

55 was very good.

59 was about average.

78 was a bust.

Just looking at snowfall data though.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Conflicting reports! 
 

But it’s coming. 

Could be!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Dave said:

45 was a bust.

48 was very good.

55 was very good.

59 was about average.

78 was a bust.

Just looking at snowfall data though.

1978-79 was a very cold winter.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm… though the airmass now is not cold, the only really warm stretch of upper level temps will only last a couple of days. So you are kind of presenting a misleading argument to make a point. 
 

This month is throwing off some into November 2000 vibes though. 

I haven't been paying too much attention... but I know the coldest air went south of us when you got your snow and since then the 850mb temps have not been that cold.   But I could be off on the timing.    And agree on the November 2000 vibe.

[TacomaWx]

50/36 here today. First time we’ve cracked 50 since 11/5. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Locally the snow event last week was very similar to 1945. Last Monday, SLE also broke a record from 1945, I think that’s a decent analog. Probably better than 2000, that month wad very dry, this one likely ends up wet here. 

[Omegaraptor]

46 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Portland had a high of 29 in early March 1960

March 1960 was a rare coast-to-coast Arctic outbreak. December 1983 is another famous one.

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1978-79 was a very cold winter.

Looks like there was an extreme cold blast in late Dec - early Jan. But it was a dry blast for Eugene. 1 inch total snow the entire winter.