November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just wait until the mid-70’s show up in December or January. May not happen this year but it will happen soon, since it is now well within the bounds of our climate.

We occasionally get low 90s in January here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It’s really rather simple. June 2021’s heat wave showed +30°F departures from historic norms are now achievable. Last October’s temperature readings showed such departures are no fluke. Add 30 to December or January historic norms and you have maxima well into the 70’s Fahrenheit. It may not be coming this year, but it’s coming.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really just an ugly progression being shown for the last 1/3 of the month. Wonder if this is all part of Jim’s plan.

[Snownerd3000]

Did I miss a memo about posting blank black images or something? Half of page 106 is just blank images.

[Omegaraptor]

22 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s really rather simple. June 2021’s heat wave showed +30°F departures from historic norms are now achievable. Last October’s temperature readings showed such departures are no fluke. Add 30 to December or January historic norms and you have maxima well into the 70’s Fahrenheit. It may not be coming this year, but it’s coming.

Valley geography doesn’t really allow that. What setup can even get, say, Salem or Eugene to 75 in January?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Valley geography doesn’t really allow that. What setup can even get, say, Salem or Eugene to 75 in January?

Winds and downsloping will be necessary. Else surface inversion will make achieving such readings impossible.

[Phishy Wx]

25 and freezing fog

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

25 and freezing fog

Sounds wintery. The way you’ve been going on I’d think it’s been warm there lately.

[AlTahoe]

42 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s really rather simple. June 2021’s heat wave showed +30°F departures from historic norms are now achievable. Last October’s temperature readings showed such departures are no fluke. Add 30 to December or January historic norms and you have maxima well into the 70’s Fahrenheit. It may not be coming this year, but it’s coming.

Our average Jan high temp is 42F. We hit 66F in Jan 2015. So Def getting closer 

[Winterdog]

Had a low of 24 this morning.  11th freeze, 8th in a row.  

[Deweydog]

37 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really just an ugly progression being shown for the last 1/3 of the month. Wonder if this is all part of Jim’s plan.

[Phishy Wx]

Great write up on how Tonga and Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric cooling could ((((((Potentially)))))) influence our winter

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-polar-vortex-cooling-event-update-cold-anomaly-winter-season-influence-fa/

[Cold Snap]

Currently sitting at 38 after a low of 26. Looks like another day in the 50s today so should have another decent temperature spread for today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some lows this morning:

PDX 33

SLE 26

HIO 23

EUG 23

CVO 22

Medford 26

Redmond 14

K-Falls 15

La Grande 12

Baker City 10

Burns 6

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some lows this morning:

PDX 33

SLE 26

HIO 23

EUG 23

CVO 22

Medford 26

Redmond 14

K-Falls 15

La Grande 12

Baker City 10

Burns 6

 

Looks like VUO (Vancouver) hit an impressive 25. Ended up falling to 30 here around sunrise Andrew 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the 12z Euro wants to go for a much more suppressed look later next week, compared to the GFS and GEM. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like VUO (Vancouver) hit an impressive 25. Ended up falling to 30 here around sunrise Andrew 

We hit 30 AS WELL, a bit warmer than yesterday morning. 

[AlTahoe]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like the 12z Euro wants to go for a much more suppressed look later next week, compared to the GFS and GEM. 

I hope its catching onto something and the other models catch up. 

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

BC is going to get absolutely hosed mid/late next week. An AR looks to set up shop and be close to stationary for about 60 hours. Extreme NW Washington should fare well too, but most of Oregon and Washington will get the leftover slops as it peters out.

I'm impressed that you can see with such certainty that far in the future.

[MossMan]

Getting very warm in my truck that is sitting in the sun at the walk in clinic where I have been waiting for 3hrs for them to come and get me. Feels good! 

Edited November 16, 2022 by MossMan

[Omegaraptor]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some lows this morning:

PDX 33

SLE 26

HIO 23

EUG 23

CVO 22

Medford 26

Redmond 14

K-Falls 15

La Grande 12

Baker City 10

Burns 6

 

1 in LAKEVIEW is Oregon’s cold spot this morning it seemz. Maybe Seneca or Fort Rock could have gotten colder. Right across the state line it was also 1 in Alturas and that is CA’s cold spot.

Speaking of which I have a friend here with family in Fort Rock. Small world.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

25 and freezing fog

Us too with the freezing fog and having all trees still covered in white frost.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

1 in LAKEVIEW is Oregon’s cold spot this morning it seemz. Maybe Seneca or Fort Rock could have gotten colder. Right across the state line it was also 1 in Alturas and that is CA’s cold spot.

Speaking of which I have a friend here with family in Fort Rock. Small world.

Looks like Fort Rock and Christmas Valley hit 0. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Fort Rock and Christmas Valley hit 0. 

We stayed in a little shack in Christmas valley one time in early April 2014. It snowed.

[Cascadia_Wx]

35 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I hope its catching onto something and the other models catch up. 

It’s really a worlds better pattern overall.

[RentonHill]

Euro Control is better and stays good/blue

[Iceresistance]

Before Y'all know it, there is more snow coming to the PNW Mountain Ranges for Thanksgiving! Would anyone mind freezing their Turkeys up there?  

[Nov1985]

24 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Euro Control is better and stays good/blue

This pattern is going to rock for mountain snowpack.

[Phishy Wx]

All aboard the 'ol LOL Control!  FTW

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Getting very warm in my truck that is sitting in the sun at the walk in clinic where I have been waiting for 3hrs for them to come and get me. Feels good! 

Is it the clap?

[Nov1985]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

All aboard the 'ol LOL Control!  FTW

Hey these control runs aren't bad 2 weeks out. Just 12 hours earlier GFS C showed 143 inches total Kuchera snowfall for this spot, now 58". That's not even a 100" difference. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty decent agreement with the operational on the Euro ensembles. A cooler and active pattern with ARs extending down into CA is much preferable to the days of dry SW flow torching the other models are showing.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is it the clap?

Not this time! Bronchitis from the initial nasty virus that I had and is going around. I got to be part of a Everett Clinic record attendance this morning!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Temps running much cooler over the metro area today so far compared to the last two days. East wind has switched to more of a gap signature as opposed to downslope for the time being, see the switch ESE wind today at PDX.

46 for a high so far here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not this time! Bronchitis from the initial nasty virus that I had and is going around. I got to be part of a Everett Clinic record attendance this morning!

I can’t remember the last time I actually went to the doctor for cold or flu stuff. Maybe when I was under 10? Even when we had covid last January.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not this time! Bronchitis from the initial nasty virus that I had and is going around. I got to be part of a Everett Clinic record attendance this morning!

Having the same shiit…. Went to dr yesterday and said I have bronchitis. Was told it to come into work since last Friday. There is a really nasty virus going around.

[Snownerd3000]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not this time! Bronchitis from the initial nasty virus that I had and is going around. I got to be part of a Everett Clinic record attendance this morning!

This is no joke.  My kids brought it home about a month ago.  First kid out a week, next kid out the next week.  They both got something else the week after that and we've been playing this game for the better part of a month.  

[Iceresistance]

Yeah, bronchitis is nasty, I had it combined with a Triple Infection in November 2020. Was out of school for an entire week

[Requiem]

Looks windee on Thursday