November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

I cannot wait to see how this will actually play out.  The potential is very real for the Arctic front to make it south of Seattle.  I think Whatcom County is a lock at this point.

[Gradient Keeper]

10 Day Rainfall totals, including southwestern US.

[Meatyorologist]

Potent upslope enhancement on the *east* side of the WA Cascades next Monday. NNE outflow combined with negative tilting of the polar trough means easterly upslope.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[LowerGarfield]

Still snowing here but the sidewalks are melting and it's about time to curl up so I had 1 inch of snowfall. Board was refreshed and put away for a few days but not bad. 1 inch in four hours in early Nov is great.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals, including southwestern US.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This is a hood canal special 

 

For now.  It's all going to come down to how the surface gradients actually verify.

[Meatyorologist]

Solid improvement on GEFS ensembles. Again!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I cannot wait to see how this will actually play out.  The potential is very real for the Arctic front to make it south of Seattle.  I think Whatcom County is a lock at this point.

How so?   Even the aggressive GFS does not show that happening.    And its been backing off on the real cold air moving south the last few runs.

Last night's 00Z run on top and the new 00Z run on the bottom for the middle of next week...

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Solid improvement on GEFS ensembles. Again!

GEFS improving is a good sign but I want to see eye candy on the operational models like the completely reasonable 18/-4 day the last 00z was showing for Portland!

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

So much cold air in Canada to work with too. 

We just need the low off the coast to end up a bit east of what is shown.  No matter what it will get unseasonably cold though.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Solid improvement on GEFS ensembles. Again!

Ya beat me to it, and that's fine with me. The GEFS is also a few notches east with the trough compared to the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Still snowing here but the sidewalks are melting and it's about time to curl up so I had 1 inch of snowfall. Board was refreshed and put away for a few days but not bad. 1 inch in four hours in early Nov is great.

Wow... that is impressive.

How far are you from Pullman?

[snow_wizard]

The most important thing for the Seattle area is to have the surface gradients more northerly than easterly.  The 0z GEFS is a bit better than earlier runs in that regard.  The connection to the part of the surface high complex over the NE Pacific is a bit stronger and the high remains a bit heavier out there.  The more equally balanced the NE Pacific part of the high is with the continental part the better.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 model comparison GFS, GEFS

[van city]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How so?   Even the aggressive GFS does not show that happening.    And its been backing off on the real cold air moving south the last few runs.

Last night's 00Z run on top and the new 00Z run on the bottom for the middle of next week...

last night run was never gonna happen. This is such a bad reference.

[Requiem]

Whoever hashtagged this thread is really asking for a mega ridge...

[snow_wizard]

Little doubt there are going to be surprises in the evolution of this in the coming days.  Let's hope at least some of them are good.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, van city said:

last night run was never gonna happen. This is such a bad reference.

We'll see what actually happens.  Last night's run would have obviously been unprecedented for so early so it had a hard road to hoe.  We can't lose sight of the fact this is still going to be a good pattern for so early.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS colder than the Op at least for the Gorge/Columbia basin. I like that.

[lowlandsnow]

Is -6 C considered the 850 temp needed for lowland snow?

[Jbolin]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How so?   Even the aggressive GFS does not show that happening.    And its been backing off on the real cold air moving south the last few runs.

Last night's 00Z run on top and the new 00Z run on the bottom for the middle of next week...

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd, we have our "normal" Tim back. Uugghh

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS colder than the Op at least for the Gorge/Columbia basin. I like that.

Some really cold members there

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Is -6 C considered the 850 temp needed for lowland snow?

Yea for Seattle, we shoot for around -7c I believe 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Is -6 C considered the 850 temp needed for lowland snow?

-8C is usually the magic number

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Is -6 C considered the 850 temp needed for lowland snow?

With offshore or northerly flow that is a good bet.  Even higher than that will work if the conditions are right.

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Is -6 C considered the 850 temp needed for lowland snow?

-8.5 C is ideal for a real snow event near the water of puget sound anyway. But -6 can work in the right heavier snowfall situations. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

-8C is usually the magic number

With onshore flow.

[Doinko]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

-8C is usually the magic number

00z GEFS 850mb temps show around -7/-8 for the mean around Whatcom County and Vancouver area. That's not bad for an ensemble mean 150+hrs out

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, van city said:

last night run was never gonna happen. This is such a bad reference.

I don't think Whatcom County is a lock for arctic air.

[lowlandsnow]

GEFS shows 850mb temps for Seattle between -6 and -7 beginning at hour 153 so definitely an improvement over the 18z  

[snow_wizard]

It can snow with 850s of 0 with the perfect conditions.  Just want people without a lot of experience to know there is no set rule for 850s equaling snow or rain.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

GEFS shows 850mb temps for Seattle between -6 and -7 beginning at hour 153 so definitely an improvement over the 18z  

Yup.  -6.5 on the mean.  Very solid for this time of year.

[Doinko]

[Gradient Keeper]

Snow!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Pretty nuts for a mean in the afternoon.

[snow_wizard]

I think the bottom line is we don't know yet.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the bottom line is we don't know yet.

January

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the bottom line is we don't know yet.

Lot of cold members

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd, we have our "normal" Tim back. Uugghh

Whatever.   It was one comment about prematurely spiking the ball.   I will just go back to not saying anything until I am on board... play it like Matt.