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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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Peak gust at PDX so far is 41 mph, though there appears to have been a 48(?) sometime between obs about 40 minutes ago. Not sure that'll stick 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like the Euro went full GFS on us. Would probably be a better pattern for keeping it cool at the surface next week. But the chances for a wetter than average or even average November are quickly fading.

Yep. It looks like we are back to our one storm every 30-45 days pattern that setup last Jan. We can safely throw out the 1955 and 1985 Analog years now. Lol 

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember August was going to be a 1956 REDUX! based on our monthly title... that didn't work either.  

I never should have set up that shrine...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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13 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

End of the run it does look like we might see that block move into position but it all feels so transitory.  Need a rex to establish for this to stick around, yes?

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1668686400-1669140000-1669550400-10.gif

That progression verbatim is not close to delivering cold air here. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick reminder on monthly topic names... nature will do the complete opposite of whatever you suggest.     We might want to try a different tactic for December.

Death Ridge December

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think it’s safe to put that portable a/c into storage for the season now.

Haha yeah. It just stays up here since the steps going up are really narrow and too much work to bring it all the way down. Absolutely right though.

Moss mentioned a big windstorm 7 years ago and I remember reading my Naploeon book by candlelight that evening as the power went out for Camano Island.

 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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32 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Haha yeah. It just stays up here since the steps going up are really narrow and too much work to bring it all the way down. Absolutely right though.

Moss mentioned a big windstorm 7 years ago and I remember reading my Naploeon book by candlelight that evening as the power went out for Camano Island.

 

Napoleon read all his books by candlelight.

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38 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Napoleon read all his books by candlelight.

That's right! I think my wife even made mac and cheese over our wood stove that night.

Highly recomend that book. I think it was this one https://www.amazon.com/Napoleon-Life-Andrew-Roberts/dp/0143127853

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

24.6 deg/21.2 deg day so far.  Currently 24.5 deg

Looks like a winter wonderland out here with everything coated white.  Wish it wasn't fake cold though :).

Black ice is everywhere. I saw someone spin out and go into the ditch on 97 between Bend and Redmond. I slowed down a lot after seeing that.

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2 minutes ago, Dave said:

Black ice is everywhere. I saw someone spin out and go into the ditch on 97 between Bend and Redmond. I slowed down a lot after seeing that.

Ya, have a project going in Madras.  On my way from Terrebonne this morning about 7:30 I saw 2 spin-outs happen, and 3 or 4 cars already in the ditch, a couple of them on the backside of Juniper Butte.  Hwy 97 was actually pretty ice free, seems that Jefferson County did a nice job of de-icing.  Can't speak for Deschutes, but at least here in Terrebonne it wasn't too bad.

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

People wanted the Pacific shut down.  They wanted a winter with a blocky pattern.   Now that we are getting it, they're complaining. 

100%. People say they want a blocky winter like 2013-14. They remember the 7-10 days of good stuff, I remember it was the most boring winter imaginable with literally nothing to track and nothing decent for weeks on end. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

100%. People say they want a blocky winter like 2013-14. They remember the 7-10 days of good stuff, I remember it was the most boring winter imaginable with literally nothing to track and nothing decent for weeks on end. 

2011-2012 was the most depressing for me

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

2011-2012 was the most depressing for me

That was a very active winter here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

100%. People say they want a blocky winter like 2013-14. They remember the 7-10 days of good stuff, I remember it was the most boring winter imaginable with literally nothing to track and nothing decent for weeks on end. 

I’ve really moved into the more active weather camp over the years. Used to be much more in the cold at all costs camp 🏕 like Jim.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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51 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Its your favorite time of the week.  Latests weeklies.  I'm a novice but looks like Dec looks great and the heights around Christmas look primed for snow.  

702601148_Euroweeklies11-17-22850Tanomolies.gif

199549932_Euroweeklies11-17-227day500mbanomolies.gif

1622732260_Euroweeklies11-17-222MTanomolies.gif

Lots of chilly members in there for the entirety of December. I have a feeling we will see a week of something good next month. Maybe not as good as last December but more like highs in low to mid 30s and lows in low to mid 20s with 2-4” of snow.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

100%. People say they want a blocky winter like 2013-14. They remember the 7-10 days of good stuff, I remember it was the most boring winter imaginable with literally nothing to track and nothing decent for weeks on end. 

‘13-‘14 was quite a good winter over here. Lots of snow and very cold. That was the year Redmond tied their all time low twice of -28 in both December and February. 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve really moved into the more active weather camp over the years. Used to be much more in the cold at all costs camp 🏕 like Jim.

I am okay with a January 2013-esque month. At least it was legitimately cold. January 2022 on the other hand was just a waste, couldn't even get a decent inversion. 

This month has been fine because at least we had the active start... As long as things break down and get active again next week. 

Overall though, if winter is a roll of the dice, then how many times do we get to roll? In an active year it just seems like we get a lot more rolls. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

‘13-‘14 was quite a good winter over here. Lots of snow and very cold. That was the year Redmond tied their all time low twice of -28 both in December and February. 

I thought they tied it the 2nd time in November 2014? 

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I have wondered at points over the last week or so if this recent stretch will turn out to be our most anomalously cold of the winter 🥶 

I doubt it. Though it is possible. I would be surprised if this month isn't our most anomalously cold overall. Though if we have a January at the 1961-1990 baseline we will probably all want to throw a parade. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18z doesn't look quite as bad. 

Latest CFS runs show a cold January, slightly below average December and Feb-April.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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