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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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Watching the 49ers-Cardinals game from Mexico City... interesting climate.   Currently 57 degrees and raining a little there.   Temps peak in March - May before the monsoon kicks in.   And the sun angle is fascinating... down to 45 degree angle in December but peaks in May at a 90 degree angle then declines a little through June (the summer solstice is not the peak) as the afternoon sun moves slightly into the northern sky and then peaks again in July at 90 degrees as the sun moves back into the southern sky.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Still feeling a 2008ish vibe myself, the late October/November weather not withstanding, I know so far it has not been like 2008.  Gut feeling here, and the last time I felt this confident of pending epicness was 2008, if the models at least continue to show cool/colder air around after we get through the summery Thanksgiving then the 12/5 to 12/20 timeframe could be a good window of fun.  Just my 1/10 of one cent thought.

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00z GFS
Begins in....51 minutes (7:35 PM)
Model riding is sure starting to become rather exciting. The trend has been quite noticeable with the GFS/GEM/ECMWF and now the GEFS/EPS is following suit. The pattern shown is about as good as you could ever hope for during anytime in the Winter with a strong, amplified ridge nosing well up through Alaska, and cold trough digging down from British Columbia. I would say my confidence is increasing, but we'll have to see how the next few days of model runs look. As I said the other day. Could we be heading to a big league cold pattern? Maybe. C'MON!!!!
 
Oh, and in case you are new here, we will ALWAYS....

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!
❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

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Little early for me to believe in this one but looks good for now. Kinda feels like the chance for something popped up out of nowhere last night but I haven’t had as much time to follow the model runs with the new job. Either way interesting that we’re going back to a nice trough pattern potentially fairly quickly after earlier this month. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Little early for me to believe in this one but looks good for now. Kinda feels like the chance for something popped up out of nowhere last night but I haven’t had as much time to follow the model runs with the new job. Either way interesting that we’re going back to a nice trough pattern potentially fairly quickly after earlier this month. 

The hints of a chance have been showing for a couple days now at least.

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

The hints of a chance have been showing for a couple days now at least.

Ah gotcha. Haven’t had the energy to go back and read through all the missed pages everyday. We will see though soon I agree if things still look good by after thanksgiving it could be fun times next month. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching the 49ers-Cardinals game from Mexico City... interesting climate.   Currently 57 degrees and raining a little there.   Temps peak in March - May before the monsoon kicks in.   And the sun angle is fascinating... down to 45 degree angle in December but peaks in May at a 90 degree angle then declines a little through June (the summer solstice is not the peak) as the afternoon sun moves slightly into the northern sky and then peaks again in July at 90 degrees as the sun moves back into the southern sky.

About the wet season in southern Mexico - I don't think they call it a "monsoon" because the ITCZ (where NH and SH trade winds meet) doesn't reach that far north. In the Americas it stays between Costa Rica and northern Brazil year round.

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) | by Siddhartha | Medium

But yeah it is overall quite similar to India's climate with March-May hot season and wet season/monsoon during boreal summer.

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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching the 49ers-Cardinals game from Mexico City... interesting climate.   Currently 57 degrees and raining a little there.   Temps peak in March - May before the monsoon kicks in.   And the sun angle is fascinating... down to 45 degree angle in December but peaks in May at a 90 degree angle then declines a little through June (the summer solstice is not the peak) as the afternoon sun moves slightly into the northern sky and then peaks again in July at 90 degrees as the sun moves back into the southern sky.

Mexico City actually has more rainy days a year on average than London.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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29 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Definitely not a Corvette, but could it have been a Pontiac Tempest?

Hard to say, but what I DO know is that the low at my house on MLK 2023 will be 4 degrees past top dead center.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

About the wet season in southern Mexico - I don't think they call it a "monsoon" because the ITCZ (where NH and SH trade winds meet) doesn't reach that far north. In the Americas it stays between Costa Rica and Brazil year round.

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) | by Siddhartha | Medium

But yeah it is overall quite similar to India's climate with March-May hot season and wet season/monsoon during boreal summer.

They call it the moonsoon in the southwest United States and that is way farther north than Mexico City.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Mexico City actually has more rainy days a year on average than London.

Players are sucking down oxygen on the sidelines... which made me wonder if people who live their lives at 7,500 feet in elevation become more energized when they visit sea level?    Seems like it would be the opposite.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching the 49ers-Cardinals game from Mexico City... interesting climate.   Currently 57 degrees and raining a little there.   Temps peak in March - May before the monsoon kicks in.   And the sun angle is fascinating... down to 45 degree angle in December but peaks in May at a 90 degree angle then declines a little through June (the summer solstice is not the peak) as the afternoon sun moves slightly into the northern sky and then peaks again in July at 90 degrees as the sun moves back into the southern sky.

I was like..."that can't be correct," but you're right! I didn't know either Mexico City (or Hawaii for that matter) was south of the Tropic of Cancer. It would be interesting coming from here to live a year down there and see if we noticed the difference (excluding climate difference obviously).

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching the 49ers-Cardinals game from Mexico City... interesting climate.   Currently 57 degrees and raining a little there.   Temps peak in March - May before the monsoon kicks in.   And the sun angle is fascinating... down to 45 degree angle in December but peaks in May at a 90 degree angle then declines a little through June (the summer solstice is not the peak) as the afternoon sun moves slightly into the northern sky and then peaks again in July at 90 degrees as the sun moves back into the southern sky.

The concept of "summer" is a completely different thing in the tropics. It's the same in Thailand, where they typically consider Mar - April as "summer" then the monsoon rains cool it down a bit. But the thing is, daytime highs will approach 100F there any month of the year if the skies clear for long enough. Most days were around 93~95F when I was there earlier this month. It actually gets cooler, but generally more humid when you head south. Borneo was "cooler", but the humidity was intense. Fortunately, every afternoon around 3~4pm you'd see the clouds bubble up followed by a torrent of rain.

20221026_172447.jpg

20221025_181327.jpg

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Players are sucking down oxygen on the sidelines... which made me wonder if people who live their lives at 7,500 feet in elevation become more energized when they visit sea level?    Seems like it would be the opposite.  

Whenever we go to Bend or Sunriver and I go running I feel like a 70 year old man with emphysema.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I was like..."that can't be correct," but you're right! I didn't know either Mexico City (or Hawaii for that matter) was south of the Tropic of Cancer. It would be interesting coming from here to live a year down there and see if we noticed the difference (excluding climate difference obviously).

I also think it would be interesting down in Australia where the afternoon sun is in the northern sky all year long.  

And then you have a place like Bogota Columbia where the sun peaks at 90 degrees at the end of March and the middle of September... and is only at 70 degrees at the summer solstice.    And the sun is in the northern sky in the summer and in the southern sky in the winter.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The concept of "summer" is a completely different thing in the tropics. It's the same in Thailand, where they typically consider Mar - April as "summer" then the monsoon rains cool it down a bit. But the thing is, daytime highs will approach 100F there any month of the year if the skies clear for long enough. Most days were around 93~95F when I was there earlier this month. It actually gets cooler, but generally more humid when you head south. Borneo was "cooler", but the humidity was intense. Fortunately, every afternoon around 3~4pm you'd see the clouds bubble up followed by a torrent of rain.

20221026_172447.jpg

20221025_181327.jpg

I went to India (Chennai) this July and the monsoon thunderstorms were amazing to watch. One day we saw some amazing cloud to cloud strikes and the monsoon rains were great to witness. However the heat was really bad at times. Around 90-95 each day with heat indexes up to 118 a lot of the time.

The west coast of India has some crazy rains though. They benefit from upsloping, so during peak monsoon season the rains are extremely intense. I went in 2019 and it would just start dumping rain almost every day.

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Players are sucking down oxygen on the sidelines... which made me wonder if people who live their lives at 7,500 feet in elevation become more energized when they visit sea level?    Seems like it would be the opposite.  

I have a buddy that lives in the CO Mtns at over 9k'

dude can drink people under the table at sea level (but he also can at 9k')

 

not sure what this proves, he's probably just a drunk.

 

when I visit though I drink far less at 9k' than I do at 2k' (or sea level for that matter)

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Players are sucking down oxygen on the sidelines... which made me wonder if people who live their lives at 7,500 feet in elevation become more energized when they visit sea level?    Seems like it would be the opposite.  

When I head back to the Bay area on occasion,  Mt biking is way easier from a cardio perspective and I can drink alot more. 

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I went to India (Chennai) this July and the monsoon thunderstorms were amazing to watch. One day we saw some amazing cloud to cloud strikes and the monsoon rains were great to witness. However the heat was really bad at times. Around 90-95 each day with heat indexes up to 118 a lot of the time.

The west coast of India has some crazy rains though. They benefit from upsloping, so during peak monsoon season the rains are extremely intense. I went in 2019 and it would just start dumping rain almost every day.

India has some really interesting climate zones, that's a pretty epic rain shadow in the mountains to the SW considering the relatively low elevations. I think Goa gets some incredible thunderstorms.

kvm4x2i56on51.png

 

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3 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

India has some really interesting climate zones, that's a pretty epic rain shadow in the mountains to the SW considering the relatively low elevations. I think Goa gets some incredible thunderstorms.

kvm4x2i56on51.png

 

Yeah the Western Ghats there are very lush and biodiverse, they're really nice. Bangalore on the Deccan Plateau has a really comfortable climate compared to a lot of the country because of the elevation. We stayed in Udupi (coastal Karnataka) for around a week in 2019 during monsoon season, they average around 163" of rain a year.

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58 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Little early for me to believe in this one but looks good for now. Kinda feels like the chance for something popped up out of nowhere last night but I haven’t had as much time to follow the model runs with the new job. Either way interesting that we’re going back to a nice trough pattern potentially fairly quickly after earlier this month. 

I was thinking today this might be the LRC showing itself.  There are seasons where the same basic pattern progression repeats on an approximate one month cycle.  That would be very interesting in the case of this season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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14 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The concept of "summer" is a completely different thing in the tropics. It's the same in Thailand, where they typically consider Mar - April as "summer" then the monsoon rains cool it down a bit. But the thing is, daytime highs will approach 100F there any month of the year if the skies clear for long enough. Most days were around 93~95F when I was there earlier this month. It actually gets cooler, but generally more humid when you head south. Borneo was "cooler", but the humidity was intense. Fortunately, every afternoon around 3~4pm you'd see the clouds bubble up followed by a torrent of rain.

20221026_172447.jpg

20221025_181327.jpg

Can vouch. In the Philippines and in the Southeast Asian region, there's no such thing as the four seasons. It's just wet and dry season. Where it's spring here, March through May in the PH is so goddamn hot and it averages a stagnant 95F with the humidity for weeks. "Winter" is the best time to visit because it's dry and cooler, but it's peak tourist season in December and I can't stand the crowds, yet Christmas over there is massive and magical and worth experiencing. 

I prefer visiting in June-September cause I love watching the tropical downpours. I have to find my old pictures sometime. 

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
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Seems like a surprising amount of people here have been to the Asian continent. Can’t say that I ever have but hopefully some day. The island of Hokkaido Japan is a bucket list spot. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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The offshore trough split is only 2 to 3 days off now and this GFS run looks to split it in a more favorable way than either the 12z or 18z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like a surprising amount of people here have been to the Asian continent. Can’t say that I ever have but hopefully some day. The island of Hokkaido Japan is a bucket list spot. 

I was born in Manila and I wish I could say I'm accustomed to that level of heat but nope, Western WA has become my default weather setting. 

Winter in Sapporo is absolutely on the bucket list, I'd love to experience that. Maybe they can consistently send their winters to the PNW. 🤞

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like a surprising amount of people here have been to the Asian continent. Can’t say that I ever have but hopefully some day. The island of Hokkaido Japan is a bucket list spot. 

Can't speak for Hokkaido in specific but Japan as a whole is incredible and for a tourist it is absolutely as spectacular as everyone makes it out to be. Just a special special place.

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Maybe this weekend if the models still look good we can have a forecast contest. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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  • Longtimer

I have been as far north as Vancouver BC, as far east as the Ham Lake Minnesota, as far west as Kauai, Hawaii, and as far south as Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Maybe this weekend if the models still look good we can have a forecast contest. 

Unless you have booked your trip to Texas, we are completely screwed and the models are going to head into the toilet. Book now!!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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