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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Currently we got the ball on our 35-40 yard line with a first and ten🏈

And we're up 13-3 in the first quarter after the "just almost there but not quite" team scored a field goal. Great start, and still plenty of ball game for things to mesh out. 

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

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33 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah I'm a ways out there but I think next week is worth watching 

index (4).png

index (5).png

That is close to epic.  The EPS and GEFS are both going for a much longer duration of cold tonight than previous runs.  PNA and EPO are both -3 for a sustained period.  No way it's not cold with that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I clearly remember that before the big cold wave in December last winter the EPS kept hanging up the really cold air at the Candian border and then one day it showed the cold flooding in.  When cold air makes into southern BC it doesn't take much to get it there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I clearly remember that before the big cold wave in December last winter the EPS kept hanging up the really cold air at the Candian border and then one day it showed the cold flooding in.  When cold air makes into southern BC it doesn't take much to get it there.

Nothing like a 20 degree day with an Arctic front sitting on your house 

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25 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Tons of mountain snow on the way!

I'm far from sure what the moisture situation is going to be with the coming pattern.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Incredible how long the EPS keeps the cold pattern going.  We'll see how things look tomorrow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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90 or so mins to go until the night shift gives us some goodies.

And with the football analogy, the next drive's gameplan is to establish the point of attack and then spread it out to open up the passing game. Ideally some 2nd and short situations to make the 2nd level of the defense falter.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm far from sure what the moisture situation is going to be with the coming pattern.

Evaporated tears of east coast weather weenies

 

Edit: I already made the joke, but had to delete it because you posted too many times and I grabbed the wrong one lol

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For those who are into it. Argentina vs Saudi Arabia coming up at 2AM. Argentina o2.5 goals is a pretty good bet and good value, esp parlayed with a Denmark draw no bet vs Tunisia. Something to have on in the background while we watch the goodies roll out. Hopefully make a little cash at the same time.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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20 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

For those who are into it. Argentina vs Saudi Arabia coming up at 2AM. Argentina o2.5 goals is a pretty good bet and good value, esp parlayed with a Denmark draw no bet vs Tunisia. Something to have on in the background while we watch the goodies roll out. Hopefully make a little cash at the same time.

U betting on OSU versus the team up north this Saturday? 

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The late November period reminds me of the early November shot. Little bit too much over water trajectory and not a ton of cold air to work with. Still some lowland snow opportunities but not a region wide event. 

I think the early December period is the one to watch as the NAPC block continues to hold and build which allows the cold air source to really expand and eventually allows the Arctic air to seep southward in a more continental direction. At least that's how I see it unfolding at this point.

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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55 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

U betting on OSU versus the team up north this Saturday? 

Not sure yet. A lot of variables.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, Kayla said:

The late November period reminds me of the early November shot. Little bit too much over water trajectory and not a ton of cold air to work with. Still some lowland snow opportunities but not a region wide event. 

I think the early December period is the one to watch as the NAPC block continues to hold and build which allows the cold air source to really expand and eventually allows the Arctic air to seep southward in a more continental direction. At least that's how I see it unfolding at this point.

The early November thing looked like a one time event before ridging built back in, amazing to see model consistency now with more opportunities later

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Blocking has been off the charts since last spring.   I think we find out in the coming years that this is related to Tonga.  Blocking does not just mean warm... patterns can get locked in on the cold side as well.    

I don't believe that this would have zero effect on the weather patterns across the world.   

 

stratosphere-polar-vortex-winter-water-vapor-26mb-nasa-concentration-analysis-anomaly-2022-2023.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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29 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z GFS Analog Composite, Day 6-10, 8-14! ☃️

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs610.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif

Not a single bad winter in any of those! Or even average, all of those were good.

December 2008 is the top analog for 8-14! December 1972 also shows up twice in the 6-10

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Its a strange November when a rainy morning feels out of place... but here we are.   

Rain until early afternoon and then dry again the rest of the week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its a strange November when a rainy morning feels out of place... but here we are.   

Rain until early afternoon and then dry again the rest of the week.

Yeah, raining here in the land of perpetual sun. What gives?

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5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

For those who are into it. Argentina vs Saudi Arabia coming up at 2AM. Argentina o2.5 goals is a pretty good bet and good value, esp parlayed with a Denmark draw no bet vs Tunisia. Something to have on in the background while we watch the goodies roll out. Hopefully make a little cash at the same time.

I was up for this. Wow, talk about a BAD BEAT and arguably the biggest upset in WC history. 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I was up for this. Wow, talk about a BAD BEAT and arguably the biggest upset in WC history. 

I’m guessing SA was not expected to win a game much less beat Argentina. 

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

December 1990 as well.  Back to back arctic blasts.

That 1990 pattern was weird. All time cold in California during Dec 1990 and then not a drop of moisture until March 1st. San Jose had like 38 days of freezing weather which is unheard of. Then Miracle March started and dropped 100" of snow up here. 

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11 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

We will see. Would be crazy to end up with yet another solid winter. I’m sure something atleast decent happens this winter…but the multi year dud is probably gonna start after this one if I had to guess. Not looking forward to the next 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 combo winters. 

Didn't you used to be a positive, kind of excitable poster?  Your posts are fairly grim lately

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3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Didn't you used to be a positive, kind of excitable poster?  Your posts are fairly grim lately

I think he is being more realistic than anything. If you like cold and snow, our winters, particularly those for areas south of Whatcom County, tend to be duds quite often.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think he is being more realistic than anything. If you like cold and snow, our winters, particularly those for areas south of Whatcom County, tend to be duds quite often.

It's all about managing expectations and appreciating the region for what it is. I love our climate.   But, I have gotten much more realistic of late as well.

Still a lot of fun to hope for COLD and SNOW!  C'MON!

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8 hours ago, Nov1985 said:

Exactly. All the impactful events seem to have a lot of uncertainty. And the sure things seem to go bust. The best hints seem to reveal themselves 72 - 84 hours out. Even Feb 2019 had some doubts the night before those six snowfalls over 10 days...

I can't agree with this enough.  Often I laugh at the posts that foretell weeks of doom and "winter cancel", only to have "winter back on the table" in the next set of runs.  We almost never know what's gonna happen next week verbatim, especially so when any cold air is involved.  Best to just enjoy the ride and stay real.

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56 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I was up for this. Wow, talk about a BAD BEAT and arguably the biggest upset in WC history. 

Wow!

Can I ask a favor? Any chance we can keep the WC talk on these early matches to a minimum? I'm one of the few "'Muricans" 🌭 that loves soccer and will be trying to watch every match...also a weather 🌭 and love tracking stuff on this board.. :) TIA!!!

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Looks like Maine or NH

There are a lot more deciduous trees in Maine or NH though. Sweden is mostly Tiaga forest and the northern parts definitely have a very tundra like feel with a lot of rocky soil and short shrubs.

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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