November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phase 7 isn't that exciting. Maybe slightly below normal for northern WA. KOOL

For the rain lovers

 

[TT-SEA]

Another lovely day at home... the beat goes on.  

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Another lovely day at home... the beat goes on.  

Are you back home now?

[RentonHill]

hm. maybe some potential here. 

[RentonHill]

Day Niner

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

hm. maybe some potential here. 

Yea. We need that cutoff to drop anchor a little farther west.  It’s a bit too progressive as is. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Are you back home now?

Not yet.

[TT-SEA]

How about low to mid 60s in the EPSL on Thanksgiving... quite nice. 

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not yet.

You missed one of the most pleasant stretches of November weather in history   

[RentonHill]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Yea. We need that cutoff to drop anchor a little farther west.  It’s a bit too progressive as is. 

Yea i wonder if that little embedded low in the ridge coming over is messing things up or if thats a common feature of such ridge progressions? Also the Baja low seems weird

[RentonHill]

Day 10

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

You missed one of the most pleasant stretches of November weather in history   

Well aware.   And yet might get to enjoy even more next week!

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Yea i wonder if that little embedded low in the ridge coming over is messing things up or if thats a common feature of such ridge progressions? Also the Baja low seems weird

Baja low bad!  I’m kind of on team Jim right now. Feels like the pattern could morph into something decent very late November or early December. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, Seattle said:

Plus Crystal and Timberline! Stevens could open if they wanted to, but they're sticking to 12/2.

Cooler than normal with an early November snowstorm has helped, and some of those areas have been able to make snow due to the colder than normal temps. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How about low to mid 60s in the EPSL on Thanksgiving... quite nice. 

Not for everyone 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's official. Eugene tied their record low this morning. 

2014?

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Jim was talking about an MJO moving into phase 7 so here’s the temperature composites for the OND period.  For anyone interested 

 

 

It would be interesting to look back at the top Arctic outbreaks for the West the past 20 years or so and see what phase the MJO was in for each.

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 10

Moving in the right direction.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

I think December’s title should be “just 10 days out”. 

[Phishy Wx]

Give me Phase 1 all day long

[Snownerd3000]

14 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Baja low bad!  I’m kind of on team Jim right now. Feels like the pattern could morph into something decent very late November or early December. 

Weeklies seem to like that early Dec time frame for a change. 

[Snownerd3000]

Looks like early to mid Dec is when we see a bigger group of members with colder mins starts to emerge

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I think December’s title should be “just 10 days out”. 

December to Remember sponsored by Lexus

[Snownerd3000]

This looks great. GOA, Greenland and SE blocking and trough right over us week leading up to Christmas.  I'm cherry picking bc the week ending the 25th the blocking isnt has high over Greenland and the troughing not as strong either so deal with it.

[RentonHill]

Day 11 EPS vs 00z

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

[Nov1985]

58 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yea. We need that cutoff to drop anchor a little farther west.  It’s a bit too progressive as is. 

That and the one magic thing we haven't seen yet: Amplified and stubborn high pressure over Saskatchewan and BC. We haven't seen that on the models at all.

[RentonHill]

oh well

[RentonHill]

BLUE

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just a little dusting of snow.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Just a little dusting of snow.

[Skagit Weather]

To give you an idea of how unprecedented this ridging period has been, from November through February there have only ever been 10 times where SEA has had 13 or more days with no measurable precipitation.

If the airport stays dry through Sunday that will be 13 days. The list of streaks is below. I wish I could list it by number of days in the streak, but I don't think ACIS allows you to control streaks based on the time of year. Of course the 21 day December 1985 streak dominates it. Then, after that, the second longest streak is 15 days in February 2005 and January 1963.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

2014?

Yes, and 2000. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

It would be interesting to look back at the top Arctic outbreaks for the West the past 20 years or so and see what phase the MJO was in for each.

Not a long list. 

[Cold Snap]

Had a low of 24 this morning. Wasn’t really much frost but I feel like that had to do with the low DP’s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

To give you an idea of how unprecedented this ridging period has been, from November through February there have only ever been 10 times where SEA has had 13 or more days with no measurable precipitation.

If the airport stays dry through Sunday that will be 13 days. The list of streaks is below. I wish I could list it by number of days in the streak, but I don't think ACIS allows you to control streaks based on the time of year. Of course the 21 day December 1985 streak dominates it. Then, after that, the second longest streak is 15 days in February 2005 and January 1963.

It's not as uncommon down here. Salem only had 0.80" of rain in November 2019, including no rain until the 12th, a streak which was 17 days if you went back into October. 

 

Of course SLE also had rain last Saturday, and if they receive no rain through the end of the month will just end up slightly below normal. 

SLE also had an 11 day rainless streak to end November 2013 and the end of November 2008 was extremely dry too. And then of course there is November 1936 which had less than 1/2 of rain at SLE. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am starting to feel Jim's blocky winter idea. Not really what I want, but probably what we will get. Hope it turns out well for us. A significant regional blast could potentially be on the table in that kind of scenario. 

[MossMan]

I sure wish we still had the November and December 2008 threads available…The level of freak out (not in a good way) happening around this time in 2008 was already sky high! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It's not getting going til December. Kick back and enjoy family and ballgames for the next couple of weeks.

Remember Thanksgiving of 2008? And in 2016-17 when we didn't have a freeze down here til the first few days of Dec?