November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I sure wish we still had the November and December 2008 threads available…The level of freak out (not in a good way) happening around this time in 2008 was already sky high! 

In terms of tangible weather... this has been the opposite of November 2008.

November 2008 was warm and wet in Seattle... this month has been cold and dry.    Jim also used to tell us almost every year that a warm and wet November is a great sign for the winter.     

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am starting to feel Jim's blocky winter idea. Not really what I want, but probably what we will get. Hope it turns out well for us. A significant regional blast could potentially be on the table in that kind of scenario. 

I'd like some negative temps if it's going to be blocky. coldest ive seen in the almost 5 years we've been here is -1.  I know it can get a lot colder in these parts in the right set up

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

In terms of tangible weather... this has been the opposite of November 2008.

November 2008 was warm and wet in Seattle... this month has been cold and dry.    Jim also used to tell us almost every year that a warm and wet November is a great sign for the winter.     

This November has been nearly twice as wet as November 2008 down here. I do recall November 2008 having a pretty significant N/S precip gradient. Kind of like last November, but probably more extreme.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'd like some negative temps if it's going to be blocky. coldest ive seen in the almost 5 years we've been here is -1.  I know it can get a lot colder in these parts in the right set up

On the other hand Spokane is running a -8F month to date departure...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I get it, the weather has been been pretty boring, but honestly aside from a very rare arctic outbreak this month could not have turned out much better. Significant negative departures pretty much across the board, it also has not been bone dry due to the heavy rain/snow at the beginning of the month. 

It's hard to really dig that into it because technically this will not be a historically dry month most places, but the dry cold November is much more of a red flag in a Nino year IIRC than a Nina. Though of course November 2000....

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On the other hand Spokane is running a -8F month to date departure...

it is, but feels like the anomalies are being wasted too early.  hopefully I'm wrong

[Front Ranger]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a long list. 

Jan 2004, Feb 2006, Nov 2006, Jan 2007, Dec 2008, Mar 2009, Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Jan 2012, Jan 2013, Dec 2013, Feb 2014, Nov 2014, Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Feb 2018, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Feb 2021, Dec 2021. Probably forgetting a couple.

Never said top tier.

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This November has been nearly twice as wet as November 2008 down here. I do recall November 2008 having a pretty significant N/S precip gradient. Kind of like last November, but probably more extreme.

[Gradient Keeper]

I keep looking for signs of a consolidated jet and just don't see it. If anything it seems more probable we see renewed blocking around ~160-150 W up over Alaska, maybe before November is over. Jim is probably going to be right with the overall theme of a blocky Winter ahead.

00z GFS in 6 hours 25 minutes

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This November has been nearly twice as wet as November 2008 down here. I do recall November 2008 having a pretty significant N/S precip gradient. Kind of like last November, but probably more extreme.

SEA is running about 25% of November 2008 precip... with very little in sight for the rest of the month.   And SEA is currently running a whopping 8.1 degrees colder than November 2008 (which was almost +3).

November 2008 was the kind of warm/wet month that seemed primed to flip to cold.

[Doinko]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Jan 2004, Feb 2006, Nov 2006, Jan 2007, Dec 2008, Mar 2009, Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Jan 2012, Jan 2013, Dec 2013, Feb 2014, Nov 2014, Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Feb 2018, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Feb 2021, Dec 2021. Probably forgetting a couple.

Never said top tier.

Feb 2022 was also cold, too bad the wind didn't let up at night here and it was mostly sunny. I think 850mb temps dropped to -10.1 at SLE.

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

I keep looking for signs of a consolidated jet and just don't see it. If anything it seems more probable we see renewed blocking around ~160-150 W up over Alaska, maybe before November is over. Jim is probably going to be right with the overall theme of a blocky Winter ahead.

00z GFS in 6 hours 25 minutes

The 12z Euro looked good at the end

[Rubus Leucodermis]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I get it, the weather has been been pretty boring, but honestly aside from a very rare arctic outbreak this month could not have turned out much better. Significant negative departures pretty much across the board, it also has not been bone dry due to the heavy rain/snow at the beginning of the month. 

It's hard to really dig that into it because technically this will not be a historically dry month most places, but the dry cold November is much more of a red flag in a Nino year IIRC than a Nina. Though of course November 2000....

Sticking snow IMBY on November 7th. Really can’t complain about that! I do worry about how ridgy it has been, and if that will persist. At least we got a good soaking in late October and early November here.

[Doinko]

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1593686986346438661?s=20&t=Hz6H33cnRpVMdgBViKbbYA

[Omegaraptor]

48 in Corvallis with a dew of 23.

[Snownerd3000]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is running about 25% of November 2008 precip... with very little in sight for the rest of the month.   And SEA is currently running a whopping 8.1 degrees colder than November 2008 (which was almost +3).

November 2008 was the kind of warm/wet month that seemed primed to flip to cold.

08 might be a bad analog then 

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I keep looking for signs of a consolidated jet and just don't see it. If anything it seems more probable we see renewed blocking around ~160-150 W up over Alaska, maybe before November is over. Jim is probably going to be right with the overall theme of a blocky Winter ahead.

00z GFS in 6 hours 25 minutes

Hows the PV looking? 

[ShawniganLake]

[Doinko]

54" of snow at Orchard Park NY, with the remark "Snow appears to be picking up again"

[MossMan]

 

18 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

08 might be a bad analog then 

Yep we are doomed. Think it’s time to sign off until 2028/29. 

Edited November 18, 2022 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Jan 2004, Feb 2006, Nov 2006, Jan 2007, Dec 2008, Mar 2009, Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Jan 2012, Jan 2013, Dec 2013, Feb 2014, Nov 2014, Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Feb 2018, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Feb 2021, Dec 2021. Probably forgetting a couple.

Never said top tier.

February 2022

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

So basically Tim exaggerating how wet it was. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sticking snow IMBY on November 7th. Really can’t complain about that! I do worry about how ridgy it has been, and if that will persist. At least we got a good soaking in late October and early November here.

Yeah, getting 10.8" of snow this month has probably colored my opinion a bit...

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

54" of snow at Orchard Park NY, with the remark "Snow appears to be picking up again"

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem has about about 130-150% of their November 2008 precip. I think this means when the arctic air comes, and it will, it will have not trouble PENTRATING DEEP into the core of the western US. 

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

54" of snow at Orchard Park NY, with the remark "Snow appears to be picking up again"

I want.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I want.

What are you thinking this whacky November means? Are we still a lost cause in your opinion? Massive 2000-01 vibes? 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So basically Tim exaggerating how wet it was. 

The back half of November 2008 was pretty constant ridging and split flow. No jet consolidation whatsoever.

I was down in the SW for Thanksgiving and it actually rained a decent amount the night I was in Phoenix. 

Going to be in the SW again this year for the holiday.....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The back half of November 2008 was pretty constant ridging and split flow. No jet consolidation whatsoever.

I was down in the SW for Thanksgiving and it actually rained a decent amount the night I was in Phoenix. 

Going to be in the SW again this year for the holiday.....

We did a hike the day after Thanksgiving at Silver Falls and it was warm and humid, I remember sweating quite a bit on the uphill stretches. Everything ended up working out. The park recorded a 32" depth on Christmas Day. 

Edited November 18, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[RentonHill]

Old GFS v New GFS day 10 12z

 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What are you thinking this whacky November means? Are we still a lost cause in your opinion? Massive 2000-01 vibes? 

Nothing would shock me at this point. Been feeling a mostly Eastern-centric winter for awhile, though. I do think we get one troughy month out of DJF then probably a lot of blah otherwise. Also feeling a wet March in '23.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When I see these operational runs I actually see a pattern that has some potential if all the pieces were to come together, so I get why Jim has been optimistic, that's just how he rolls. He's going to see that glass half full. Unfortunately most of the model runs end with the pieces still drifting around 500 miles out of place from where they would need to be to actually deliver the goods. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Nothing would shock me at this point. Been feeling a mostly Eastern-centric winter for awhile, though. I do think we get one troughy month out of DJF then probably a lot of blah otherwise. Also feeling a wet March in '23.

Yuck 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Nothing would shock me at this point. Been feeling a mostly Eastern-centric winter for awhile, though. I do think we get one troughy month out of DJF then probably a lot of blah otherwise. Also feeling a wet March in '23.

If I were Tim I would start to worry if we get a dry December, especially if it starts running into January... Usually we make up for that.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If I were Tim I would start to worry if we get a dry December, especially if it starts running into January... Usually we make up for that.

Not a matter of if but when! North Bend's reservoirs will be overflowing all next summer like always.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

 

I do that. Not for very long, or my feet start getting numb, but for short trips (like to the mailbox and back) it is a lot less cold than one might think. Snow is mostly air.

[Phishy Wx]

better question is what year had such a cold to very cold region wide November to date that was also a La Nina and possibly a 2nd or even 3rd year La Nina?  Does that exist?

[ShawniganLake]

I’ve gone out to measure the snow barefoot before. It’s cold on your feet. I did not notice any health benefits from it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

better question is what year had such a cold to very cold region wide November to date that was also a La Nina and possibly a 2nd or even 3rd year La Nina?  Does that exist?

November 2000. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Dark day on the forum.