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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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I kind of like this.  From Pendleton AFD.  See this High Desert Mat and Dareduck?

More active weather begins in earnest by Sunday morning with a trough advertised by ensemble and deterministic guidance to slide down British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. The track of this system is somewhat continental with little moisture in any ensemble members. Thus, not expecting this system to produce heavy precipitation amounts. Delving into ensemble clusters reveals that all cluster solutions depict some flavor of a trough or cut-off low diving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Monday, though differences in amplitude and timing are apparent with no solution strongly favored. Have low-elevation snow in the forecast as the influx of colder air with northerly flow aloft favors this general outcome. The ECMWF EFI is highlighting central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands as an area to watch on Monday for climatologically unusual snowfall, though current NBM QPF is not enough to support advisory-level snow.

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

I remember a storm a few years back where a low dropped down from the gulf and wraps itself around the Olympics near the mouth of the columbia. Stayed up tracking it and  It was a great one. Believe it was in 2019. 

8 Feb 2019? I remember that one. My place on Bainbridge Island got dry slotted for hours and I was in fine weenie mode about it. Went to bed dejected and of course it then proceeded to absolutely dump all night and when I got up at the crack of dawn there was over 8" on the ground.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Only about $2500 in exterminator’s fees and other costs associated with dealing with the bedbugs you will bring inside with it.

That table looks like something that would bring about a long/strong period of +EPO.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

It keeps the chill potential for much of December. 

b6b2f2c8-f26b-4056-8f79-99f969ba9e59.gif

The Pacific is shut down!!!!!!!!!  Bikini weather in Hawaii and bouts of shorts and T-shirt weather on the Atlantic coast.  Love it!!!!

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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34950-x

Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene

Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 7175 (2022) Cite this article

Abstract

Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.

Who's ready for some climate whiplash? 

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Hmmm...

20221123_snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.thumb.png.cdcb7f302166fbbba7541b5e4a907f98.png

  • Slight risk of heavy snow for some low elevations of the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Sun, Dec 1-4
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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

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Looks like things keep trending in the right direction. With each trend and is getting closer to the event I get a little more excited by the day. There’s always a chance of a rug pull but this time that chance seems pretty low with how much is aligned for us like the Phase 7 MJO, the -PNA, -EPO, and -NAO.

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1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

850s are a little colder on the 18z EPS.

9AB9EEF8-1CA1-4596-8B0C-89A4C180E674.png

085B2B34-DEF6-47B9-BDC9-B3F1D8C0B250.png

Let's get that cold in place and get a series of suppressed lows tracking south of the region.  That's what I want.

B.C. sliders are nice but they are limited.

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55/44 today. Today is only our 2nd positive departure this whole month. Running -3.6 MTD which could end up being the coldest November I’ve recorded 2005-Present. We’re -1.5 from the current coldest November here in 2010. If I had to guess this is probably the coldest November since 2000 here.

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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8 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Hmmm...

20221123_snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.thumb.png.cdcb7f302166fbbba7541b5e4a907f98.png

  • Slight risk of heavy snow for some low elevations of the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Sun, Dec 1-4

Looks like Shawniganlake and rubus aren’t gonna be getting any snow. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Hmmm...

20221123_snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.thumb.png.cdcb7f302166fbbba7541b5e4a907f98.png

  • Slight risk of heavy snow for some low elevations of the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Sun, Dec 1-4

If this goes anything like the ‘’way-too-far-in-the-future’’ risk of heavy precipitation memo they issued last time, we can put a fork in it now.

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Alright…I am going to apologize right now, I am putting the plow on my mower tomorrow while it’s warm and dry, every single time I have done that the last few years the models immediately take a temporary dump. It’s a given but it will be okay, they will bounce back pretty quickly! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

If this goes anything like the ‘’way-too-far-in-the-future’’ risk of heavy precipitation memo they issued last time, we can put a fork in it now.

To be fair, a 20% probability of something happening isn't that likely.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

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1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34950-x

Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene

Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 7175 (2022) Cite this article

Abstract

Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.

Who's ready for some climate whiplash? 

I'm on board!  Maybe this more well defined season thing is going to be the new normal for us.

As an interesting aside I did some research on the last ice age and found some fascinating stuff I had never known before.  Incredibly they have found evidence that the Western WA Lowlands actually had sage brush and subalpine fir trees before the glaciation set in.  It is truly amazing what dramatic changes have happened in our climate in the relatively recent (geologically speaking) past.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Lot of local seattle meteorologists seem pretty hyped about the potential coming up. NWS has been talking about it too. Still no word from the forum favorite cliff mass. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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The million dollar question is will we be able to get the January monkey off our backs this winter.  This season has displayed the signs that a consistently cold / very blocky winter has a well above average chance of happening.  Furthermore, we do seem to have an LRC going now which would favor another round of favorable blocking around New Years.  That having been said the January curse has been very real for a long time now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lot of local seattle meteorologists seem pretty hyped about the potential coming up. NWS has been talking about it too. Still no word from the forum favorite cliff mass. 

I'm so bummed about that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

55/44 today. Today is only our 2nd positive departure this whole month. Running -3.6 MTD which could end up being the coldest November I’ve recorded 2005-Present. We’re -1.5 from the current coldest November here in 2010. If I had to guess this is probably the coldest November since 2000 here.

I think I'm going to come in around 52/37 or so before midnight arrives.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The million dollar question is will we be able to get the January monkey off our backs this winter.  This season has displayed the signs that a consistently cold / very blocky winter has a well above average chance of happening.  Furthermore, we do seem to have an LRC going now which would favor another round of favorable blocking around New Years.  That having been said the January curse has been very real for a long time now.

We broke the curse down here in 2017 in a big way. Before that? 2004?

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

We broke the curse down here in 2017 in a big way. Before that? 2004?

2017 was pretty legit.  Even 2004 torched hard after the cold.  During the 2007 through 2017 stretch January did try to make a comeback, but crashed again afterward.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

2017 was pretty legit.  Even 2004 torched hard after the cold.  During the 2007 through 2017 stretch January did try to make a comeback, but crashed again afterward.

Are you talking about just one event, or a decidedly colder month overall?

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2 hours ago, Terreboner said:

I kind of like this.  From Pendleton AFD.  See this High Desert Mat and Dareduck?

More active weather begins in earnest by Sunday morning with a trough advertised by ensemble and deterministic guidance to slide down British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. The track of this system is somewhat continental with little moisture in any ensemble members. Thus, not expecting this system to produce heavy precipitation amounts. Delving into ensemble clusters reveals that all cluster solutions depict some flavor of a trough or cut-off low diving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Monday, though differences in amplitude and timing are apparent with no solution strongly favored. Have low-elevation snow in the forecast as the influx of colder air with northerly flow aloft favors this general outcome. The ECMWF EFI is highlighting central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands as an area to watch on Monday for climatologically unusual snowfall, though current NBM QPF is not enough to support advisory-level snow.

I saw it. Could be good but a little far out still. We’ll see how the 500 pans out and the low placement. 

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33 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Alright…I am going to apologize right now, I am putting the plow on my mower tomorrow while it’s warm and dry, every single time I have done that the last few years the models immediately take a temporary dump. It’s a given but it will be okay, they will bounce back pretty quickly! 

Just keep this to yourself next time 

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5 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

5:35pm a healthy boy emerges. Thank you everyone for the well wishes! 

I'll have to catch up on the rug pull later :P

The 23rd is a good date as well, congrats!!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Just keep this to yourself next time 

I just want everyone to know why the models will be taking a sudden downturn tomorrow. It will work out though…It has for the last 3 years anyway! 😀

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2017 was pretty legit.  Even 2004 torched hard after the cold.  During the 2007 through 2017 stretch January did try to make a comeback, but crashed again afterward.

2004 I'll never forget. Talk about an abrupt end to Winter... at the beginning of January 

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