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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll have to look at that part of it again.

I'll tell you about it, I was a Senior in High School. You know, that one time in your life you don't make up snow days. So I'm like bring them all on. 

Yeah, big disappointment. We had chances of snow, but fell apart the last second. Like one time this low came down the coast and was suppose to swing inland, but it was like duces and went down the coast and warmed us up!

2004 and 2006 were good though.

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2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I hope you all are sitting down for this!  This morning ties my November record for freezes at 16!  Also, the 13th sub 30 low in a row!  Currently 40 after a low of 23.

Normally you’d figure a pattern like this would deliver a lot of fog but there’s been almost none here. Has allowed for some very cold mins across the region. 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Normally you’d figure a pattern like this would deliver a lot of fog but there’s been almost none here. Has allowed for some very cold mins across the region. 

I was thinking about that too. Not too often we get cool, calm and clear. 

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Got down to 27 this morning, 14th freeze here this month. If we get a cold snap at the end of November to come together I may end this month with more than half the lows below freezing.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Normally you’d figure a pattern like this would deliver a lot of fog but there’s been almost none here. Has allowed for some very cold mins across the region. 

This has a subtly different flavor to it this year.  This last shot of continental was so dry that fog was pretty much out of the question with the usually dry ground right now.  Before that we had below normal 850s for a long time earlier in the month so the cold was more legit than inversionary.  Different variations of cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Cold Snap said:

Got down to 27 this morning, 14th freeze here this month. If we get a cold snap at the end of November to come together I may end this month with more than half the lows below freezing.

Some places could do it tonight.  Going to be a close call with more clouds.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Now that I’m thinking about it I could have more freezes this month than the entirety of the 2020-2021 winter. I remember only having around 11 or 12 freezes that winter.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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12 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

A potent Arctic air mass meeting an AR 24/7/365 would be boring and depressing except for those who want it to rain all the time.

Or snow, for a certain period of time.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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30 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:
A potent Arctic air mass meeting an AR 24/7/365 would be boring and depressing except for those who want it to rain all the time.
 
We had that happen to us in January and got 3-4 feet of snow in 24 hours. The low stayed to the South so the warm air didn't make it to us so it stayed all snow. And it also led to good upslope winds which enhanced the snow.
 
 
 
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12Z GFS: Slushy snow in the Puget Sound area possible before cold air looks to keep daytime high temps just below freezing on Dec 2 and Dec 4. 850 temps also start look good from the morning of Dec 2. EC ensembles not as bullish yet, but a trend is starting. 10 to 20% chance winter hits to kick of December! Woot!

 

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Assuming today stays below 50 there (they seem to be on track) even hot box PDX will have spent half the month to this point with highs in the 40s. Pretty impressive for the first 2/3 of November. 

14/20 days with sub-50 highs here so far. And 9/20 with lows 32 or lower.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Wasn't that Feb 2006?

We had two events like that in 2005-06.  One in Dec and one in Feb.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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38 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Some impressive inversions on the eastside. Madras at 30 while Bend is at 43. Lakeview at 25 while Klamath is at 37 and Alturas at 39.

45.1 here currently.  Went to Madras this morning and most of town was broken up except for the west side of town on the plateau on to Warm Springs.  When I got up at 6:30 you could see the low clouds and fog banked up against Juniper Butte, which is normal for these patterns.  I would bet they didn't get below 25 overnight though as we got down to 13.

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46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We had two events like that in 2005-06.  One in Dec an done in Feb.

Interesting. I remember the snow event and dry cold in early December, but not any wind.

But the Feb 2006 cold east wind event was easily the strongest I ever saw in Tacoma.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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15 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
18z GEFS coming in now. Nice improvement. Are we about to go into a big league cold pattern? I base that off of the ridge placement and good propensity for continued block development and highly amplified pattern.
500h_anom-mean.na.png

PNA doesn't know if it should get on board with this.  Members look like a spaghetti factory.  

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16 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
18z GEFS coming in now. Nice improvement. Are we about to go into a big league cold pattern? I base that off of the ridge placement and good propensity for continued block development and highly amplified pattern.
500h_anom-mean.na.png

Interesting that this run is better.  NWS Seattle and Portland in their apparently Coordinated AFDs mention this:

Clusters are showing a 
suppressed ridge over Western U.S as a possible outcome instead of
the low pressure dipping from the north. It does seem more likely
that a pattern change is evident next week, but confidence is low
at this time.

Maybe this run is showing more agreement on a more troughy solution.

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I have to say about North Bend is their inability to get cold nights in this pattern would kind of drive me nuts.  Obviously getting more snow more than makes up for it, but that is more uncommon than them getting the shaft on the cold mins in certain situations.  There are probably microclimates around there where that isn't a problem though.

I've heard there is an abnormal amount of hot air being blown in a neighborhood in that area

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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I've heard there is an abnormal amount of hot air being blown in a neighborhood in that area

LOL... that is pretty clever.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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