November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A thing of beauty. If only this were at Day 3-5.

Well said. It will be a long wait for this one but the 12Z was exciting too, along with recent GFS drinking binges. Some outflow on the 00Z ECMWF. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[snow_wizard]

I'm guessing there will be some snow in Seattle if the ECMWF and GFS are anywhere near right.  The blast is more northerly than backdoor which is a good scenario for Seattle.

[selkirks]

Now add precip!

[snow_wizard]

I guess if I had to throw some analogs out there I would have to include 2000 also, although the blocking pattern in early December on that was further east.  So with the years I've been looking at for various reason this is the list.

1916

1936

1942

1956

1971

1978

2000

All of those have major strengths, but some weaknesses as well.

 

[ShawniganLake]

39 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming. 
 

Again.

I think. 

Feels like this will likely be a close call but not quite on the arctic air.  Probably some chilly onshore flow and even some lowland snow though.  Hopefully Mother Nature will prove me wrong. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Trough energy splits at Day 3.5, Kona low Day 4. Ridge develops Day 4.5 to 5, then slides east to ~160-155 W at Day 6.5. Day 7 ridge amplifies further with axis remaining at ~160-155 W and cold trough digs down over us. Seems like a plausible progression.

[Dave]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

What’s drifting? I hear that term a lot and I don’t understand the phenomenon.

It's when the snow gets blown all over the place due to wind and cold and the snow is powdery enough. Think of a pile of snow that just blows away. It ends up somewhere and huge drifts can occur. I've never seen it happen in the Eugene area, although it did occur in Portland in 96 and it happens from time to time on the passes and in central Oregon.

[HuskyMaestro]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

If the three main models are agreeing with this, is it really clown range at 9 days ahead? I'm ready to get excited but I don't want to get my heart broken

[snow_wizard]

Kind of weird how the ensembles are so reluctant to go nearly as cold as the operational models.   Maybe they're just too "coarse" to pick up on it yet.

[snow_wizard]

On another note is the wind in Corbett really THIS bad?

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=C2664&hours=72

I cannot imagine living in a place that constantly windy.

[Deweydog]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

On another note is the wind in Corbett really THIS bad?

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=C2664&hours=72

I cannot imagine living in a place that constantly windy.

Pretty weak sauce for them.

[ShawniganLake]

34 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

If the three main models are agreeing with this, is it really clown range at 9 days ahead? I'm ready to get excited but I don't want to get my heart broken

Ensembles bottom out around -4C 850s so far. Best to keep your expectations in check 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Pretty weak sauce for them.

I think there was a gust to 78 somewhere on that long list.  It would take a special kind of person to live with that constant wind.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 57 minutes

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ensembles bottom out around -4C 850s so far. Best to keep your expectations in check 

With all three models on board I wouldn't be so sure.  That's what makes me puzzled on this.  Usually when all three models are showing this ensembles agree.  I've been kind of bullish on it for a while given the favorable MJO wave.  Obviously too early to celebrate though.

[Gradient Keeper]

36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With all three models on board I wouldn't be so sure.  That's what makes me puzzled on this.  Usually when all three models are showing this ensembles agree.  I've been kind of bullish on it for a while given the favorable MJO wave.  Obviously too early to celebrate though.

Yeah. When all models show the similar trough energy splitting into the cut-off low at the same time, then Day 6-7 amplify the ridge with the mean axis ~160-155 W you have to wonder if something big is coming. Sometimes we see the ensembles play 'catch up' to the Op, but usually its the other way around which normally would lend less confidence for the much colder Op solutions. I think if the next few Op runs are unchanged with the pattern progression Day 4-7 that could change with the ensembles turning colder. I also notice the 00z GFS and 00z CMCE Analog Composite Day 11+ are in lock-step with each other the same positive anomaly axis, trough, and southeast US ridge. Very cold years popping up with December 2008 the #1 analog. It seems something is afoot.

12z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes
12z ECMWF in 8 hours 32 minutes

[Cold Snap]

I think this next cold snap is going to be better the fact that it’s happening a little later. Climo definitely would support a 1-3” event happening out of this. I would be happy with that.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Overnight GFS seems more realistic.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Overnight GFS seems more realistic.

Great run and mighty close to a real cold pattern.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Great run and mighty close to a real cold pattern.

It's on the way.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10-12

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[Tyler Mode]

Yay a cold weather record!  Most days at or below freezing lows  for November.  14 so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS definitely improved at least for the Gorge/Columbia Basin. Decent number of chilly members and surface temps indicate another cold pool is on the way.

[The Cats Meow]

With the ridge position and things rotating around it to the north and dropping south there will be a number of chances the goods make it west of the mountains.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS in 1 hour 46 minutes

[AlTahoe]

It's 11F and power is out for the entire town currently. Hurry up sunrise! 

[Everleigh]

34.5* and there is some wet stuff falling lightly from the sky.....Not sure what it is though, it's been so long since I've seen it, I have forgotten what it's called....*insert dramatic sigh* lolol 

Jokes aside, there is a light rain falling currently. Hooray! 

[Prairiedog]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

On another note is the wind in Corbett really THIS bad?

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=C2664&hours=72

I cannot imagine living in a place that constantly windy.

Crown Point hit 94mph a few days ago.  Corbett doesn't get the brunt of the winds but it stays plenty windy.  Home of Mark Nelsen.

[Blizzard777]

8 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Sandy Point?

Yes, I heard the neighbors using that name although it’s rocky . Neighbor and I got along pretty good and he’s already invited me crabbing when I come up.  
 

34*

[TacomaWx]

Low of 36 this morning. Roads were wet on my drive to work in Tacoma but doesn’t look like it was measurable. 

[TT-SEA]

Dry driveway here... no rain overnight.    Currently 42 and looks like its clearing up.  

[Doinko]

Monthly departures so far:

Eugene: -6.0

Salem: -5.7

McMinnville: -4.3

Hillsboro: -5.1

Portland: -4.1

Olympia: -6.0

Seattle: -5.2

Bellingham: -6.7

[FroYoBro]

15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Monthly departures so far:

Eugene: -6.0

Salem: -5.7

McMinnville: -4.3

Hillsboro: -5.1

Portland: -4.1

Olympia: -6.0

Seattle: -5.2

Bellingham: -6.7

I’ve never experienced a -6 month in Portland. I wonder what it’s like? 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I’ve never experienced a -6 month in Portland. I wonder what it’s like? 

February 2019 did I think, same with January 2017

[MossMan]

Wet deck. 

[Doinko]

Day 5!