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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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Some really cold air being forecast in BC. Feels like a weather pattern that will stay for a while. Getting highly confident we'll get some Arctic air now... But whether it interacts with Pacific moisture or not is up in the air (lol)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Some really cold air being forecast in BC. Feels like a weather pattern that will stay for a while. Getting highly confident we'll get some Arctic air now... But whether it interacts with Pacific moisture or not is up in the air (lol)

I hope a cold pool in the Columbia Basin is established keeping Portland freezing

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30 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Curious if anyone has a drunk uncle over to watch the Druncle?

I am the drunk uncle, but my fam is on the east coast so Facetime will have to do.  will be there for xmas so expect a blizzard here while i'm gone.

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I am the drunk uncle, but my fam is on the east coast so Facetime will have to do.  will be there for xmas so expect a blizzard here while i'm gone.

I'm drinking horse feathers if anyone is interested in partaking in such nonsense 

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  • Longtimer

I think it might snow. 
 

After getting the plow ready I got the rest of the outside Christmas light up and cleaned the gutters at the same time. Had to take advantage of this spectacular day! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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GFS has a really cool transition from -EPO to +EPO without the switchover from -PNA. Means Arctic air to a fun NW flow regime with building mountain snowpack instead of straight into Pineapples. Also provides the opportunity for that GOA ridge to drift over and create another potent inversion pattern.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I tend to agree. With NE gradients and sub -10 850s, surface low development off Vancouver Island is generally a very good bet. 

November 2006! Please and thank you. I'll never forget that epic snowstorm. 🥶☃️

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS is strikingly similar to last December's evolution, but with more southerly extent to the Arctic air.

Last December blocking was just east enough to bring Arctic air down to Chehalis, but only briefly past there.

This go around blocking looks to set up in the prime spot for the whole PNW, and its persistence and efficacy looks equal to or greater than last year.

It’s been since, what 2013 since we got one down to SW OR?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said:

lock it in 1669939200-p7JV5LVDFe4.png

Certainly nice but I find those Weatherbell maps are too biased towards showing snow as the precip type. It is up to 37F in parts of the northern Willamette valley at HR 174 but the Weatherbell map makes it look like it is almost all snow. 

I find the tropical tidbits map to be a bit more realistic. Still a pretty nice track with the low coming in near the mouth of the columbia river and drifting SE.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_29.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS is strikingly similar to last December's evolution, but with more southerly extent to the Arctic air.

Last December blocking was just east enough to bring Arctic air down to Chehalis, but only briefly past there.

This go around blocking looks to set up in the prime spot for the whole PNW, and its persistence and efficacy looks equal to or greater than last year.

Even though the Arctic air only made it here briefly, we still managed a subfreezing high which was great

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A few days ago my forecast was saying snow snow snow, but now it's rain!  Beautiful day today with Mount Baker is full glory.  The foothills are noticeably dry with no snow like they usually are from here.

Anyways, hope everyone is having a fantastic Thanksgiving!  Many blessings to count including this great weather community!  Thanks for all the knowledge gained this year and wisdom from some very wise people here!  Hope you have a fantastic Thanksgiving filled with good food, family, friends, and cheer! 

Tomorrow it's Christmas decorations!!

 

wddwwd.jpg

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NWS Spokane honking

 

Monday through Wednesday night: A backdoor front will slide into the 
area on Monday with a secondary one on Wednesday. The Monday front 
will be dry but will drop high temperatures into the low to mid 20s 
with lows in the single digits to teens. The airmass will stay in 
the region through Tuesday before shifting eastward. The second and 
more impactful front will bring regionwide snow along with arctic 
air, meaning much colder temperatures. Ensembles are not in 
agreement yet but some areas could have highs in the single digits 
and low temps below zero. We will continue to watch and adjust the 
forecast as we get closer. /KM

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5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NWS Spokane honking

 

Monday through Wednesday night: A backdoor front will slide into the 
area on Monday with a secondary one on Wednesday. The Monday front 
will be dry but will drop high temperatures into the low to mid 20s 
with lows in the single digits to teens. The airmass will stay in 
the region through Tuesday before shifting eastward. The second and 
more impactful front will bring regionwide snow along with arctic 
air, meaning much colder temperatures. Ensembles are not in 
agreement yet but some areas could have highs in the single digits 
and low temps below zero. We will continue to watch and adjust the 
forecast as we get closer. /KM

"Ensambles aren't in agreement"?

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4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Given this, what sort of numbers do you guys think this thing would need to put up to earn the coveted "top tier" status?

For your location or favorite airport.

For my location I need 12”+ of snow, 5+ sub freezing highs, and lows in the single digits for it to be top tier. More snow can make up for warmer temps and colder temps can make up (to an extent) for lack of snow.

That means that since 2000, there have only really been a couple events that were top tier by my definition. December 2008 definitely checks all the boxes and so does December 2021. February 2011 didn’t quite have the temperature support (lows in the low teens, a couple subfreezing highs), but it had so much snow that it also made the top tier list. I wasn’t here for February 2019, but it just barely squeaks in even though it didn’t have that much snow (about a foot) and the temperatures weren’t that cold. I had a couple subfreezjng highs, but not 5. I have good memories of November 2006, but it may fall just outside the bounds of top tier (I didn’t have a weather station so I don’t know what temps were here, but we got about a foot of snow).

And I think this is in general is a good definition for my location because it seems we have something like this on average every 4-5 years. Sometimes it happens in consecutive years (fingers crossed) and sometimes it doesn’t happen for more than a decade.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: 0"

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17 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NWS Spokane honking

 

Monday through Wednesday night: A backdoor front will slide into the 
area on Monday with a secondary one on Wednesday. The Monday front 
will be dry but will drop high temperatures into the low to mid 20s 
with lows in the single digits to teens. The airmass will stay in 
the region through Tuesday before shifting eastward. The second and 
more impactful front will bring regionwide snow along with arctic 
air, meaning much colder temperatures. Ensembles are not in 
agreement yet but some areas could have highs in the single digits 
and low temps below zero. We will continue to watch and adjust the 
forecast as we get closer. /KM

Minnesota here it comes

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10 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

18z ECMWF gives @MossMan a decent dumping of snow Sunday night that is not phantom snow. Though anything in the lowlands south of Snohomish county is mostly phantom snow.

10450D87-8EED-4AB8-B35B-17507716B0E8.png

I’m in the purple!!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Best of luck to everyone tonight.  

Nice and crossfaded. Things are good.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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  • Longtimer
13 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks like a birthday party

It is my birthday today but the decorations were from my youngest daughter B Day party at the beginning of November! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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