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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Happy birthday!

Thanks! The model runs today were the best gift ever! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow

Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile.
Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low
temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS
is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for
lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level
lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However,
given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0
temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights
to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all
mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will
arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow.
Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower
elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and
freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to
line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level
of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday
night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side.
Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several
days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model
ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF
signal. -Muessle/TK
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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow

Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile.
Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low
temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS
is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for
lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level
lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However,
given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0
temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights
to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all
mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will
arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow.
Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower
elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and
freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to
line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level
of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday
night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side.
Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several
days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model
ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF
signal. -Muessle/TK

Anything being said about snow by NWS Seattle? I’m assuming not lol.

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow

Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile.
Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low
temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS
is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for
lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level
lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However,
given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0
temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights
to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all
mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will
arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow.
Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower
elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and
freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to
line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level
of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday
night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side.
Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several
days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model
ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF
signal. -Muessle/TK

Meh. This Sunday/Monday would be a nice tune up. My attention is on the middle of next week 

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6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Anything being said about snow by NWS Seattle? I’m assuming not lol.

The forecast discussion for tonight hasn't been posted yet, but there more optimistic about snow and the reinforcing shot next weekend 

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I got this! Model riding let's go!!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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🦃 Happy Thanksgiving 🍗

Model riding: 00z GFS

11/24/22 7:37 PM 00z GFS
Running.... NOW (7:35 PM)
Hoping we continue the trend of colder runs. I would like to see the amplified block tilt a bit more favorable, but as it merges with the Bering Sea high pressure cell that may not be likely. I would also like to see the second PV lobe punted further southwest over us and not just end up with really cold onshore flow, but a full on blast.
This run will or won't be....
  1. Cold enough for Socks(c)Rob 2016
  2. Wetter than a Poodle in a Car Wash(c)Rob 2003
  3. So much Snow it's whiter than an albino Snowball fight contest(c)Rob 2022
  4. Feature Colder runs Ahead(c)Rob 2017
Oh, and in case you are new here, we will ALWAYS....

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!
❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

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00z GFS Day 0 (Init):

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Feel free if you'd like. Yeah. This one is all you.

Thanks Rob! 👍 Can't make the 06z so I figured I'd do this one.

  • Thanks 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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00z GFS Day 1:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Meh. This Sunday/Monday would be a nice tune up. My attention is on the middle of next week 

I really think people on the forum in the western lowlands are going to get snow Sunday night/Monday. I think it’ll likely be in the convergence zone…so not widespread lowland snow but many other people are probably going to atleast see flakes. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I really think people on the forum in the western lowlands are going to get snow Sunday night/Monday. I think it’ll likely be in the convergence zone…so not widespread lowland snow but many other people are probably going to atleast see flakes. 

I’m excited for the convergence zone potential. Looks like there’s a chance for multiple convergence zones next week.

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I really think people on the forum in the western lowlands are going to get snow Sunday night/Monday. I think it’ll likely be in the convergence zone…so not widespread lowland snow but many other people are probably going to atleast see flakes. 

Yeah I'm not expecting to see much unless there's a drastic change

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00z GFS Day 2:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, Cold Snap said:

I’m excited for the convergence zone potential. Looks like there’s a chance for multiple convergence zones next week.

With strong NW flow I think there’s a good chance for a “double C-zone” one coming off of Vancouver island and another off of the Olympics. Pinning where both of those end up will be interesting. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah I'm not expecting to see much unless there's a drastic change

It’ll be pretty darn cold for sure it’ll feel like winter. There could be some surprises though. I think that there’ll be some accumulating snowfall in some lucky places…but at this time I don’t think many places see accumulation. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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00z GFS Day 3:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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00z GFS Day 4:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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This could get real pretty

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Subfreezing Arctic outflow by Tuesday morning on this run!

Low in the GOA doesn't bomb out, which allows for Arctic air to bleed way south into the region in advance of Wednesday's trough. This could have HUGE positive implications if it's a trend. BC cold pool is already way better established.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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00z GFS Day 5:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Gfs shows some light precip across the region that wasn’t there on the previous run for tuesday. Temps are very marginal though. 

  • Shivering 2

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Subfreezing Arctic outflow by Tuesday morning on this run!

Low in the GOA doesn't bomb out, which allows for Arctic air to bleed way south into the region in advance of Wednesday's trough. This could have HUGE positive implications if it's a trend. BC cold pool is already way better established.

Makes sense. Looks like Tuesday has a high in the 30s 

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00z GFS Day 6:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Subfreezing Arctic outflow by Tuesday morning on this run!

Low in the GOA doesn't bomb out, which allows for Arctic air to bleed way south into the region in advance of Wednesday's trough. This could have HUGE positive implications if it's a trend. BC cold pool is already way better established.

This is a huge difference. The cold air never scours out of western WA. This is a very good trend. Huge improvement!

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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I like some parts of this, and dislike others. Less moisture overall and Arctic air is ultimately shallower. But no scouring, and small tweaks would turn this into a generational event.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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I feel like this run definitely toes a fine line-- I am worried (if this specific progression occurs) about things being shunted towards the east.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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00z GFS Day 7:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Looks like it's turning into more of a +EPO/+PNA in the fantasy range. But short term improvements are nice and like I say, short term improvements generally beget long term ones!

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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00z GFS Day 8:

image.png

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like it's turning into more of a +EPO/+PNA in the fantasy range. But short term improvements are nice and like I say, short term improvements generally beget long term ones!

It’s pretty nice to see us stay cold inbetween the cold shots next week but I didn’t like us having less precip. We will see it’s just one run not a trend just yet. 

  • Like 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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This thing is going to come down to how much the second trough swings out over the ocean as it slides down from the north as far as snow is concerned.  The models are really having trouble nailing that down right now.

The cold is looking very likely to happen regardless.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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