November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Subfreezing Arctic outflow by Tuesday morning on this run!

Low in the GOA doesn't bomb out, which allows for Arctic air to bleed way south into the region in advance of Wednesday's trough. This could have HUGE positive implications if it's a trend. BC cold pool is already way better established.

This is a huge difference. The cold air never scours out of western WA. This is a very good trend. Huge improvement!

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW! 504 thickness into Washington before Day 6.5!

[Meatyorologist]

I like some parts of this, and dislike others. Less moisture overall and Arctic air is ultimately shallower. But no scouring, and small tweaks would turn this into a generational event.

[Requiem]

I feel like this run definitely toes a fine line-- I am worried (if this specific progression occurs) about things being shunted towards the east.

[Weiner Warrior]

Need some moisture

[Kolk1604]

I feel like snow totals will be impossible at this point because of the falling Temps and snow ratios will vary. 

7am Thursday

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 7:

4 Run Trend:

[RentonHill]

Jim has actually been right on this before and I’m gonna trust him because hot dang what have we got to lose - when air this cold sweeps in the moisture finds a way. Ya gotta believe!!

[Meatyorologist]

Looks like it's turning into more of a +EPO/+PNA in the fantasy range. But short term improvements are nice and like I say, short term improvements generally beget long term ones!

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 8:

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like it's turning into more of a +EPO/+PNA in the fantasy range. But short term improvements are nice and like I say, short term improvements generally beget long term ones!

It’s pretty nice to see us stay cold inbetween the cold shots next week but I didn’t like us having less precip. We will see it’s just one run not a trend just yet. 

[snow_wizard]

This thing is going to come down to how much the second trough swings out over the ocean as it slides down from the north as far as snow is concerned.  The models are really having trouble nailing that down right now.

The cold is looking very likely to happen regardless.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like it's turning into more of a +EPO/+PNA in the fantasy range. But short term improvements are nice and like I say, short term improvements generally beget long term ones!

The teleconnection forecasts from the EPS have been saying otherwise.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I feel like this run definitely toes a fine line-- I am worried (if this specific progression occurs) about things being shunted towards the east.

It's been switching back and forth.  No clear trend either way right now.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s pretty nice to see us stay cold inbetween the cold shots next week but I didn’t like us having less precip. We will see it’s just one run not a trend just yet. 

I've seen these setups before, they don't end nicely. Often a straight-to-rain transition. It wouldn't be too bad if we can get a decent snowfall going into it.

[TacomaWx]

The gfs wants to moderate us by day 9 but the cmc does not agree. Not showing the mega arctic air the it was on the 12z but pretty close to it at the end of the run. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. PDX metro, western Gorge that is a prolific low level blast with raging east winds.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The teleconnection forecasts from the EPS have been saying otherwise.

I mean, it's a transition that is climatologically favored and makes sense. I've noticed models hold on to cold weather regimes for longer than they should.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I've seen these setups before, they don't end nicely. Often a straight-to-rain transition. It wouldn't be too bad if we can get a decent snowfall going into it.

Dec 2021. Honestly I feel we may simply repeat last year's cold snap.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I've seen these setups before, they don't end nicely. Often a straight-to-rain transition. It wouldn't be too bad if we can get a decent snowfall going into it.

Right now I think it’s likely a typical gfs wobble in the 7+ day range. I wouldn’t put a whole lot of stock into it. I think at that range on the ensembles the gfs OP ends up an outlier. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The gfs wants to moderate us by day 9 but the cmc does not agree. Not showing the mega arctic air the it was on the 12z but pretty close to it at the end of the run. 

Yeah and still dry. That's disappointing. 

GEFS is running and almost to Day 5

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wow. PDX metro, western Gorge that is a prolific low level blast with raging east winds.

I really hope the coming event involves both a Fraser River component and then a Gorge one to keep us cold. That was missing from 2021 which was slightly disappointing.

[Kolk1604]

00z GEFS Day 5

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

00z GEFS Day 5

What does the GFS meteogram look like for Portland/Seattle?

[Meatyorologist]

00z ICON is hawt

[Hawksfan2008]

Better snowfall from the GEM. The GEM and EURO have been more aligned on snowfall totals. 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Doinko said:

What does the GFS meteogram look like for Portland/Seattle?

That's not available until the GFS is done 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 9:

[Weiner Warrior]

Hoping for better runs. Nice low level cold but lack of moisture once we hit below freezing. Throw it out. Onto the next one

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 10:

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

Better snowfall from the GEM. The GEM and EURO have been more aligned on snowfall totals. 

Same with the NBM

[Gradient Keeper]

The real question is over the next 48 hours of model runs what changes might we see with the secondary polar lobe, ridge placement, amplification, and tilt. I would expect some, and it would be the difference between a dry blast, or modified blast with short-over-water trajectory with snow opportunities.

[GHweatherChris]

Next

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS 10 Day Precip:

Snowfall:

[Meatyorologist]

Another run with plentiful mountain snowfall

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A more realistic progression on the GFS tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

Unfortunate trend

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS bit colder through Day 5 with the second cold shot.

[Kolk1604]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

We all know it comes down to the EURO and EPS later anyways.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A more realistic progression on the GFS tonight.

Here we go again. You trash it and then believe it. Makes no sense 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Unfortunate trend

I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Unfortunate trend

I mean this is really the first run to diverge the way it did. If it’s on the 6z and 12z tomorrow I’d consider it a trend. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Doinko said:

I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run.

Ahh, your still kinda newish here.

[Kolk1604]

Day 6 (continued)

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Day 5.5 850s (Past 4 runs) Much colder tonight so far with that second lobe.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dec 2021. Honestly I feel we may simply repeat last year's cold snap.

I would be in heaven with that! 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ahh, your still kinda newish here.

Yeah this is the first event I've really looked at on the models. So I definitely have a lot to learn about reading them, but I don't think one GFS run really means much unless the next few runs continue it. And ensembles look colder

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This gfs run sux imo. I'd bet it's an outlier, for several runs there has been low pressure development more or less in the same area and now it just vanishes lol. Red flag.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run.

It’s not warmer in the nearer range though the arctic air still hits…it’s just basically a trade off in the short term. The colder air from the first shot sticks around better which is nice. Definitely less precip which I don’t like. It changes the upstream pattern and longevity of the second shots staying power and puts us under a ridge quicker. It’s very typical to have some bad runs thrown into the lead up of some all time great events. I’m betting it’s an outlier.