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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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The only main criticism I have with our prospects is the general lack of cold over the continent. The upcoming +PNA pattern is shunting all the plentiful cold air sitting over Canada right now all way back to north of the Arctic circle.

It's going to take a bit of a process to reinstate deep, meaningful Arctic air back into western Canada. If the best blocking shows too early, the pattern may be stuck with two tasks at once.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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32 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall, including the southwestern US.

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

sn10_acc.us_sw.png

Finally some interesting color in the longer range for my location.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The only main criticism I have with our prospects is the general lack of cold over the continent. The upcoming +PNA pattern is shunting all the plentiful cold air sitting over Canada right now all way back to north of the Arctic circle.

It's going to take a bit of a process to reinstate deep, meaningful Arctic air back into western Canada. If the best blocking shows too early, the pattern may be stuck with two tasks at once.

Park place is easy. Boardwalk is the money maker. 
 

that made a lot of sense in my head but not so much as I typed it out 

 

<<send>>

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Just a little better up north vs last run

8E51A2BA-B0A8-417D-AA14-9D13E3134434.png

5AC653AF-C7E3-4E57-9CAF-BD43271629E1.png

I feel like that is a huge change for one run on the GEFS. This is starting to get good.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Dramatic improvement on the ensemble mean tonight.  850s drop to -6.4 where earlier runs had never even dropped to -5.

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  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Really nice improvement on the 500mb also.

1669820400-ifYLwJCmyw8.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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ECMWF is sharper with the trough even in the near term.  Looking good right now.

1669496400-uqIX6GyEE60.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dramatic improvement on the ensemble mean tonight.  850s drop to -6.4 where earlier runs had never even dropped to -5.

Yep! Surface temps for the Columbia Basin turn frigid. Even PDX turns cold to near freezing AND the Op was a warm outlier starting at just Day 4.5 to 5.

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 :o

500h_anom.na.png

Placement of the block is dead on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yep! Surface temps for the Columbia Basin turn frigid. Even PDX turns cold to near freezing AND the Op was a warm outlier starting at just Day 4.5 to 5.

With the op it was just fairly minor details that got in the way of it being colder.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Whenever we go to Bend or Sunriver and I go running I feel like a 70 year old man with emphysema.

You should probably have that looked at...Bend is only ~3,500ft!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’ll be in Iceland December 27-January 7. Expect something historic in that time frame. I’m thinking 1968-esque?

I'll be in NYC from 12/27 - 1/2 so I'm thinking the same.  Hoping I can catch a 'noreasta while on the east side of the continent 

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Dr. No strikes again...

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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