umadbro Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Almost but not quite. https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: There is no cold air to work with unfortunately It's still early. Looks like plenty to me just move it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Lots of cold rain. Nothing to get excited about. Unless you live above about 1000’. No reason to hype it more than it is. 2 1 1 7 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 The GEFS improved dramatically and the past 2 EPS runs have improved as well. No reason to think the 00z tonight won't continue that. I guess we'll find out in about 1 hour. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Day 9'er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Fun times coming up. Right now anywhere from cold to really cold looks pretty likely for the end of the month. 7 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: There is no cold air to work with unfortunately The block just has to setup in the right place for a couple days and it will get there. 4 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Fraser outflow late in the run. Amazing how these cold configurations just keep coming since the big change. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: The block just has to setup in the right place for a couple days and it will get there. At this point the 500mb stuff is the big deal. Details always change. Besides it gets cold on this run anyway. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: There is no cold air to work with unfortunately Just needs to crack a cold one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 10 That's pretty big... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Jan you airy. 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 This still has a “close but not quite” feel to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: That's pretty big... That wants to pinch off for our kona low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 27 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Unfortunate. Ya, that low off BC is everything in terms of pulling the cold west. Quite a change in the past two runs. Here is the past 4 runs for that time frame. It might be Friday before the Monday night fcst settles. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: This still has a “close but not quite” feel to it. It always does, well some very rare exceptions, but unless there is solid model agreement showing arctic air moving south of the Canadian border within 72 hours, it always feels like that to me. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: This still has a “close but not quite” feel to it. Yeah, to me looks pretty similar to what we just saw except at this point the last cold spell was looking absolutely frigid. But I'll hope for favorable trends. 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 EPS out very far yet? 6z NAM in 15 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Yeah, to me looks pretty similar to what we just saw except at this point the last cold spell was looking absolutely frigid. But I'll hope for favorable trends. Looks pretty similar for sure. Troughs digging in but are never really able to tap into the good stuff. Lots of time for favourable trends still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: EPS out very far yet? 6z NAM in 15 minutes Somewhat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: It always does, well some very rare exceptions, but unless there is solid model agreement showing arctic air moving south of the Canadian border within 72 hours, it always feels like that to me. Exactly. All the impactful events seem to have a lot of uncertainty. And the sure things seem to go bust. The best hints seem to reveal themselves 72 - 84 hours out. Even Feb 2019 had some doubts the night before those six snowfalls over 10 days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Out to hour 276 looks good to me 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Digggggg!!!!!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Yeah I'm a ways out there but I think next week is worth watching 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Patience is a virtue 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Correction. Next week and the following week 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Amazing EPS run. Pretty ideal trough location. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Correction. Next week and the following week Better than last EPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 This got my attention. Check out the surface anomalies 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: This got my attention. Check out the surface anomalies GEFS agrees this will be a lasting pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 36 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: Ya, that low off BC is everything in terms of pulling the cold west. Quite a change in the past two runs. Here is the past 4 runs for that time frame. It might be Friday before the Monday night fcst settles. Thanks. This is the kind of analysis that this forum needs. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 I'd say that's a pretty solid signal 15 days out 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Tons of mountain snow on the way! 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Currently we got the ball on our 35-40 yard line with a first and ten 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Currently we got the ball on our 35-40 yard line with a first and ten With the kickoff being returned from the endzone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Currently we got the ball on our 35-40 yard line with a first and ten And we're up 13-3 in the first quarter after the "just almost there but not quite" team scored a field goal. Great start, and still plenty of ball game for things to mesh out. 1 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Currently we got the ball on our 35-40 yard line with a first and ten 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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