November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Doinko]

GEFS D1-10

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This forum has been really helpful. I had no idea how to read any maps less than a year ago

I've learned a ton on how to read the maps from this forum over the last year

[Everleigh]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yes. You were reading the map correctly.  Sometimes it is difficult to know if you are looking at surface maps vs upper level maps and actual temps vs anomalies.  Don’t be discouraged to ask questions. Most people on here have learned their weather knowledge from this very forum. 

That right there. I always have to make sure I read the fine print. lol 

This forum has DEFINETLY expanded my knowledge, and excitement, for weather. I have learned a TON since being here.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

There are a lot more deciduous trees in Maine or NH though. Sweden is mostly Tiaga forest and the northern parts definitely have a very tundra like feel with a lot of rocky soil and short shrubs.

yea, I was more commenting on the landscape in that pic, looks alot like what you'd see in the bush of Northern Maine north of Mt. Katahdin 

[SouthHillFrosty]

For reference 

[TacomaWx]

Low of 41 this morning. We’ve picked up 0.09” since midnight. Warmest overnight low in over 2 weeks. 

[Nov1985]

16 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. 

 

I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. 

I'm glad you spotted that. Interesting cold easterly pattern from the Columbia gorge I guess. It's interesting. Looks like little east wind there which explains the sinking temps. Single digits aren't crazy for Olympia in any cold spell and clear skies. But ya, fantasy land range for now.

By default, the cold air is supposed to slide further east into the central plains. It usually does. When something pulls the cold unusually west, the models overplay the cold seeping into the west/pacific coast in the long range. That's why models often feel like they are delaying the cold one day at a time. By the time the day actually approaches, the models correct and the cold is much less cold than the long range forecast showed a week earlier. And once in a blue moon, a modified arctic front actually happens and we get the "real" cold. 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

That right there. I always have to make sure I read the fine print. lol 

This forum has DEFINETLY expanded my knowledge, and excitement, for weather. I have learned a TON since being here.

FYI at the top of that map it said 2M AGL Temperature. That stands for 2 Meters above ground level temperature.

[Everleigh]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

FYI at the top of that map it said 2M AGL Temperature. That stands for 2 Meters above ground level temperature.

Yes, okay. That is what I THOUGHT, but just wanted/needed clarification. Thank you!

[ShawniganLake]

The Canadian Arctic is right blocked by the end of week 2 on the GFS.  Coast to coast cold if that verifies. 

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Joe Bastardi in their premium section is showing maps of the Weeklies control run to dream of a white christmas for the east coast

Bastardi is such a trash loser.  he should get a room with Judah and Ryan Maue.  Then invite Mass over

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Bastardi is such a trash loser.  he should get a room with Judah and Ryan Maue.  Then invite Mass over

I don’t think Maue and Bastardi are buds.  Didn’t he take is pretty maps and start his own site after leaving Weatherbell 

[ShawniganLake]

“It’s raining Cats and dogs”. 0.37” this morning 

[joelgombiner]

NWS Sacramento is on board for a huge trough over the Pacific Northwest. 

 

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

NWS Sacramento is on board for a huge trough over the Pacific Northwest. 

 

Dig baby, dig!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

“It’s raining Cats and dogs”.

Take care not to step in a poodle.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 hours ago, umadbro said:

Lots of cold rain. Nothing to get excited about. Unless you live above about 1000’. No reason to hype it more than it is.

One of the best posts so far this week!

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I don’t think Maue and Bastardi are buds.  Didn’t he take is pretty maps and start his own site after leaving Weatherbell 

I remember he use to have some winter wx blog on InAccuratewx like 15-20 years ago.  I lived on the east coast at the time.  then they tried to start charging for it, then he left and for some reason I think he started some consulting company prior to weatherbell but I may be mistaken?

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Take care not to step in a poodle.

[Doinko]

Euro Day 2

 

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

For reference 

Don't you want a -AO as well? i guess that shows it off the pic?

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Don't you want a -AO as well? i guess that shows it off the pic?

We can do okay without a -AO

[Chewbacca Defense]

14 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Players are sucking down oxygen on the sidelines... which made me wonder if people who live their lives at 7,500 feet in elevation become more energized when they visit sea level?    Seems like it would be the opposite.  

I used to tease my son when he would come home on a break from Bozeman and ask him if he was holding up ok with all the extra oxygen he was getting down here at sea level. 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Don't you want a -AO as well? i guess that shows it off the pic?

believe for the really epic cold yes.  We're mostly sitting neutral.  Did hear that the polar vortex has been running pretty weak which has allowed so much cold to spill on both sides of the globe.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We can do okay without a -AO

Yeah, just as an example February 1989 was one of the more positive AO months on record.

[Phishy Wx]

So for those keeping score at home

 

Do we currently have most of all this in place or coming soon?

 

-NAO

-EPO

-PNA

-AO (maybe not as important?)

Favorable MJO

Triple Dip La Nina

 

Wildcards:

One of the largest volcanic eruptions in recorded history 10/11 months ago

extreme H20 levels in the the Stratosphere (mostly southern hemisphere but some increase in Northern too)

 

What else?

 

I mean it seems like we've been dealt a pretty solid hand, no?

 

All In??

[joelgombiner]

Jet stream evolution over the next 7 days. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

the period from November 25 or so and December 5th is historically a good time to score snow in the lowlands.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, just as an example February 1989 was one of the more positive AO months on record.

December 1990 was also pretty positive for the month.  January 1950 came in pretty much neutral. 
 

-pna and -EPO are our bread and butter. 

[Slushy Inch]

So far so good. Trough improvements over last run.

[MossMan]

My neighbor just texted me asking if it’s going to snow next week…Weather apps must be starting to show snowflakes or something…

[Phishy Wx]

I'm guessing a third 'wildcard' is sea ice extent?  no?  still kinda early

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm guessing a third 'wildcard' is sea ice extent?  no?  still kinda early

Just my take, but I don’t think sea ice matters much to us.  We have seen some of our most anomalous events early in the season before sea ice extent is really even increasing much

[Cascadia_Wx]

How are everyone’s horoscopes, wooly bear stripes and pig spleens looking?

[ShawniganLake]

The 12z GEPS definitely made a move towards the colder GEFS

[Slushy Inch]

Euro convergence zone snow. My favorite weather event.

[Snownerd3000]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

the period from November 25 or so and December 5th is historically a good time to score snow in the lowlands.

We were wish casting for snow i think in last months thread and talking about a snowy hawks game for this Sundays game to be a to the day, 15 years from the epic Monday night snow game against the Packers. 

 

I could see weather impacting the next month of Hawks games, Christmas eve in KC and home against the Jets on new years day

[Doinko]

Euro is much farther east with the trough

 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Euro convergence snow. My favorite weather event.

Right over king/Snohomish line. My favorite CZ

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Right over king/Snohomish line. My favorite CZ

I'd like a repeat of DEC 18, 1990 if possible.