November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[The Cats Meow]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The atmosphere probably had a little something to do with it too.

Sure, as it very well could again this time.

[Slushy Inch]

EPS and GEFS agreement in long range is unusually good.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Unfortunately it doesn't show surface temps, just anamolies, and I don't trust anomaly maps, since I don't think these ensemble maps have a good idea of what normal is (for example, I have seen maps from the operational that would show a high temp in Wenatchee of 25, and the anomaly map shows it 5-10 degrees ABOVE normal, instead of the 10-12 degrees BELOW normal that it is).

And it doesn't show 925s for the ensemble.  Weatherall maps might, since weathermodels.com is cheaper than Weatherbell

I actually have a WB account but I'm on my work computer right now which doesn't have my WB login info saved. Will have to do the model sanity checks this evening (assuming clown range is still clowning like that, of course).

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Hour364Please said:

Sure, as it very well could again this time.

If I had pepto-level accumulations materialize IMBY as often as the models call for it, my yearly snowfall totals would probably give Buffalo or the Bruce Peninsula a run for the money.

[Deweydog]

Wet!

[The Cats Meow]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If I had pepto-level accumulations materialize IMBY as often as the models call for it, my yearly snowfall totals would probably give Buffalo or the Bruce Peninsula a run for the money.

I guess you are right.  Usually doesn't materialize as modeled.

 

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Folks make fun of the pepto maps but I think last year the pepto maps, while not completely accurate, led to about 7" of snow at my back door.

Earlier this month the gfs was showing 40-60” of snow here. And it DID snow.  About 2.5”.  

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Wet!

0.63” today.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

White!

Expecting 3-4 inches of snow and it's starting to pick up.

 

[ShawniganLake]

JMA turns very cold day 9-10.  Solidly chilly days 5-8. 

[RentonHill]

9 hours ago, Kayla said:

The late November period reminds me of the early November shot. Little bit too much over water trajectory and not a ton of cold air to work with. Still some lowland snow opportunities but not a region wide event. 

I think the early December period is the one to watch as the NAPC block continues to hold and build which allows the cold air source to really expand and eventually allows the Arctic air to seep southward in a more continental direction. At least that's how I see it unfolding at this point.

I think second week of December may be realistic. EPS shows a lot of cold air going west and east and eventually builds in more east coast blocking. Just need to hold the NAPC block until then? That’s my very uneducated guess. 

[MossMan]

.23” so far here. Sounds like another westerly surge is going to strike my area this afternoon, should be a bit weaker than the 11/4 event however. 

Edited November 22, 2022 by MossMan

[bainbridgekid]

Weird seeing so much snow on the road without anything on the trees at Snoqualmie. Must be very sleety.

 

[umadbro]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Weird seeing so much snow on the road without anything on the trees at Snoqualmie. Must be very sleety.

 

Willing to bet the pass is closed in the next hour or two

[Rubus Leucodermis]

44.2°F and 0.91" rainfall so far today.

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Euro convergence zone snow. My favorite weather event.

I’m right about in the heart of that! Would be really nice to get a convergence zone with snow out of this.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today’s system has kind of sneakily trended wetter the last few days. Up to .15” for the day currently with more on the way judging by radar. Holding on to low level easterlies here as well. Just 41 currently after a low of 38.

[Gradient Keeper]

Based upon everything I've seen with the 12z suite this morning, especially noting the nice improvements on the EPS, I would say it looks like we're a step closer to a prolonged cold pattern to me. I would like to edge the block a small notch to the east, but not much then we'd just be bitterly cold with no shortwave/bc sliders and thus no moisture. Right now the 500mb pattern is nearly ideal, but a bit more amplification would be okay. We'll know in 48-72 hours if we're going to be chilly with low snow levels and perhaps cold offshore flow, or if we see a legit blast.

18z GFS in 1 hour 10 minutes
00z GFS in 7 hours 10 minutes
00z ECMWF in 9 hours 20 minutes

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Weird seeing so much snow on the road without anything on the trees at Snoqualmie. Must be very sleety.

 

Trees are still too warm for it to stick.

[Gradient Keeper]

12:31 PM Radar Update. WET! Yet another impressive front which continues the trend this Fall.

 

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Today’s system has kind of sneakily trended wetter the last few days. Up to .15” for the day currently with more on the way judging by radar. Holding on to low level easterlies here as well. Just 41 currently after a low of 38.

Yup! This system turning out to be quite good. Heaviest showers right now over the central sound and hourly obs are picking up some nice totals for SEA. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Based upon everything I've seen with the 12z suite this morning, especially noting the nice improvements on the EPS, I would say it looks like we're a step closer to a prolonged cold pattern to me. I would like to edge the block a small notch to the east, but not much then we'd just be bitterly cold with no shortwave/bc sliders and thus no moisture. Right now the 500mb pattern is nearly ideal, but a bit more amplification would be okay. We'll know in 48-72 hours if we're going to be chilly with low snow levels and perhaps cold offshore flow, or if we see a legit blast.

18z GFS in 1 hour 10 minutes
00z GFS in 7 hours 10 minutes
00z ECMWF in 9 hours 20 minutes

I think another inversion period is a good bet after the -PNA stuff blows through. Can’t shake the 2005edness of it all. Perhaps a 12/1/05-style winter storm?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I think another inversion period is a good bet after the -PNA stuff blows through. Can’t shake the 2005edness of it all. Perhaps a 12/1/05-style winter storm?

If we do end up with another inversion/cold pool it's going to be far colder than the previous one.

[yellowstone]

Up to .86” so far with the heaviest rain of the day happening now and no end and sight. Nice over performance from an NWS forecast of .25-.5”.  

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Today’s system has kind of sneakily trended wetter the last few days. Up to .15” for the day currently with more on the way judging by radar. Holding on to low level easterlies here as well. Just 41 currently after a low of 38.

Yep. Definitely wetter than modeled.

[SnowWillarrive]

Was not expecting today to be this wet. 

[Gradient Keeper]

EPO heavily tanked, PNA negative combined with the 500mb pattern shown on models/eps gives even more weight to a big league cold pattern. This could really end up being memorable.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Leavenworth cam always good to watch during snowfall.

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

HEAVY RAIN

[Cold Snap]

Currently at 47 after a low of 40. At 0.77” of rain for the day. It looks like I might actually get an inch with how much moisture is left. I’ve gotten 0.28” in the last hour.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

If we do end up with another inversion/cold pool it's going to be far colder than the previous one.

Probably, considering we just entered our primetime two month window.

[Skagit Weather]

7 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Up to .86” so far with the heaviest rain of the day happening now and no end and sight. Nice over performance from an NWS forecast of .25-.5”.  

So far drier than forecast up here, especially by the WRF. This morning's WRF predicted we'd be up to about 0.4-0.5" by 1 p.m. and we're at 1/3 of that, but it looks like the next wave is moving in.

[Gradient Keeper]

MJO entering Phase 7. Yep. All of the pieces are coming together and sure looks 2008-esque to me. Wouldn't that be outstanding. The Great White Arctic Winter 2022-2023(c)Rob 2022. I can't remember how far back I said that. October?

[Gradient Keeper]

Check this out. The Dalles and many locations in the Columbia Basin never gets to freezing after Day 7 and this is the EPS not that silly crackwhore GFS/GEFS. The plot thickens like a mixture of molasses and campbell's chunky stew.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking at the ensemble means from the big 3 currently. Things bottom out around -5 or -6C for Seattle. 

[Slushy Inch]

[Snownerd3000]

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think another inversion period is a good bet after the -PNA stuff blows through. Can’t shake the 2005edness of it all. Perhaps a 12/1/05-style winter storm?

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS hints at a pretty prolonged period of cooler than normal temps after the Thanksgiving ridge. Which itself was looking like it could produce some warm temps just a few days ago but now appears to stay relatively cool at the surface. The shot of cool air behind today’s system helps with that.

[ShawniganLake]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think another inversion period is a good bet after the -PNA stuff blows through. Can’t shake the 2005edness of it all. Perhaps a 12/1/05-style winter storm?

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Matt’s getting ahead of himself with the same type of long range extrapolation he would immediately mock others for.