Jump to content

November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Matt’s getting ahead of himself with the same type of long range extrapolation he would immediately mock others for. 🥰

Just an opinion, Jess. Don’t go all homophobic rant on me, por favor.

January will be here soon enuff.

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
  • Popcorn 1
  • scream 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think another inversion period is a good bet after the -PNA stuff blows through. Can’t shake the 2005edness of it all. Perhaps a 12/1/05-style winter storm?

how come no 2005 analogs here? Or should i interpret your statement as "how i think the models will evolve" vs "what i think models are currently trying to show"

 

610analog.off.gif

814analog.off.gif

  • Like 4
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's just started raining some. Currently 56F.

  • Like 3
  • Rain 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
Check this out. The Dalles and many locations in the Columbia Basin never gets to freezing after Day 7 and this is the EPS not that silly crackwhore GFS/GEFS. The plot thickens like a mixture of molasses and campbell's chunky stew.
floop-epsens-2022112212.sfct-mean-imp.us_nw(1).gif

Sweet. Lots of below-freezing surface temps up my way = real snow, not phantom snow.

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

how come no 2005 analogs here? Or should i interpret your statement as "how i think the models will evolve" vs "what i think models are currently trying to show"

 

610analog.off.gif

814analog.off.gif

Those analog composites are only useful if what the model is showing at days 8,10,14 or whatever was to actual verify.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

how come no 2005 analogs here? Or should i interpret your statement as "how i think the models will evolve" vs "what i think models are currently trying to show"

 

610analog.off.gif

814analog.off.gif

The 2005 thing is a loose interpretation of the current evolution. 2005 just happened to feature a protracted period of November ridging, then turned cool/cold and active late in the month and into early December.  It was a pretty meridional stretch that collapsed like a b*tch around 12/20. Feels to me like blocking is gonna remain the default for now and I suspect this -PNA will be pretty transitory. Could be and probably are wrong…

As for those day 10 analogs, it’s always seemed sketchy to me to look at real world comparisons of progs which are three days past seven days away. I think basic anomaly placement/teleconnections is a better way to go. Keep it simple…

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some lightning detected over the Cascades with that frontal passage.

  • Like 4
  • Storm 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Those analog composites are only useful if what the model is showing at days 8,10,14 or whatever was to actual verify.  

I get that those are only linked to current long range guidance. Given the ensembles confidence id be surprised if the high level pattern really looked that much difference than what they are currently showing, obviously details and local weateher will be never be the same. I really just wanted an excuse to post those (high coefficient scores with great years!) and to tease out some more detail from @Deweydog 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

MJO entering Phase 7. Yep. All of the pieces are coming together and sure looks 2008-esque to me. Wouldn't that be outstanding. The Great White Arctic Winter 2022-2023(c)Rob 2022. I can't remember how far back I said that. October?

2008 YES!! 2005 NOOOOOO! 

  • Snow 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Can someone telestrate what I'm looking at? Go full John Madden on this.

The stratosphere is about to see a major warming event at the North Pole in that frame.  When you warm the strat in that area you disturb the polar vortex  This often leads to major blocking and sustained cold episodes into the mid latitudes  

 

  • Like 5
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Where do you see that?

On Radarscope. But I think the frames with lightning in them are too old to see anymore.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...