November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Phishy Wx]

rain/snow/sleet mix

37 DP 27

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

rain/snow/sleet mix

37 DP 27

Decent chance of it transitioning to all snow with that sort of spread.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

MJO entering Phase 7. Yep. All of the pieces are coming together and sure looks 2008-esque to me. Wouldn't that be outstanding. The Great White Arctic Winter 2022-2023(c)Rob 2022. I can't remember how far back I said that. October?

How long do the phases usually last?

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane starting to honk a little

 

Sunday through Tuesday: A cold upper low descending from Alaska
will bring changes to our weather Sunday into next week. Look for
increasing mountain snow on Sunday with the potential for moderate
accumulations for the Cascade Passes. Lowland temperatures Sunday
should be comparable to Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid
to upper 30s for most of central and eastern Washington and north
Idaho. Monday will be a day to watch as the upper low migrates
into our region. There is a good deal of spread among the 
ensembles, but the operation runs of the GFS and ECMWF take a 
favorable track to produce bands of snow that could impact our 
lowlands. Cold air aloft under the upper low in conjunction with a
backdoor front could also enhance the potential for snow. Of 
course there is a lot of uncertainty with a Day 7 forecast, but a 
day to watch none the less. Chances favor colder than average and 
wetter than average conditions Tuesday through the middle to 
latter part of next week following a push of colder Canadian air. 
/GKoch

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Decent chance of it transitioning to all snow with that sort of spread.

I think it's already started, just getting darker too

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NWS Spokane starting to honk a little

 

Sunday through Tuesday: A cold upper low descending from Alaska
will bring changes to our weather Sunday into next week. Look for
increasing mountain snow on Sunday with the potential for moderate
accumulations for the Cascade Passes. Lowland temperatures Sunday
should be comparable to Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid
to upper 30s for most of central and eastern Washington and north
Idaho. Monday will be a day to watch as the upper low migrates
into our region. There is a good deal of spread among the 
ensembles, but the operation runs of the GFS and ECMWF take a 
favorable track to produce bands of snow that could impact our 
lowlands. Cold air aloft under the upper low in conjunction with a
backdoor front could also enhance the potential for snow. Of 
course there is a lot of uncertainty with a Day 7 forecast, but a 
day to watch none the less. Chances favor colder than average and 
wetter than average conditions Tuesday through the middle to 
latter part of next week following a push of colder Canadian air. 
/GKoch

Just don’t upgrade to a new and more powerful snow blower and we should be fine.

[Phishy Wx]

still mostly rain but trying to turn over.  local media saying some 1-2"/hour bands could come through the evening, hopefully turned over to snow by then

[Phishy Wx]

this is going to be a struggle I think down in the valley.  36 with a DP of 30, now heavy rain.  bulbing at 33.  going to take some work to scour out the warm air down here I think.  folks up the hill (2500'+) are getting hammered

[Cold Snap]

18z GEFS 850s are looking a little colder.

[HuskyMaestro]

Those are some cold nights 7+ days ahead already being detected. Cautiously optimistic..

[SimplySmoothWX]

From November 8th to yesterday, Hillsboro had 13 consecutive sub-freezing lows. We also recorded a record low on the 19th. 

This beat 2015's November cold streak by 2 days. 2018 and 2013 also had some nice cold streaks, but didn't last as long or went slightly above freezing for a few nights inbetween.

[Phishy Wx]

oof, right under that green and yellow blob just east of Spokane.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Those are some cold nights 7+ days ahead already being detected. Cautiously optimistic..

That does not make any sense... we rarely see nights in the mid 20s with highs around 40 with cloudy skies and precipitation.    

[TT-SEA]

Suddenly much brighter...

 

[antipex]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

oof, right under that green and yellow blob just east of Spokane.

 

 

Just 80 miles north of you and it’s been snowing since 11am. Picked up recently and there’s about an inch new accumulation so far… 30.8.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Suddenly much brighter...

 

FROPA.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[antipex]

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Suddenly much brighter...

 

Not here just yet. 

[Phishy Wx]

North and West side of Spokane, dumping snow on traffic cams.  East and South side mostly heavy rain, but finally large flakes IMBY

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I think another inversion period is a good bet after the -PNA stuff blows through. Can’t shake the 2005edness of it all. Perhaps a 12/1/05-style winter storm?

As a wise man once said. Analogs are dumb.

[T-Town]

Fun clouds this evening. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Holy mid-afternoon darkness batman!  

 

That would be late afternoon this time of year.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That would be late afternoon this time of year.

Late afternoon starts at 3pm. It’s science.

[RentonHill]

18z Yeezus 

[RentonHill]

[Guest administrator]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

18z Yeezus 

Praise be the Gulf of Mexico.

[Cold Snap]

I heard one of the volcanoes in Russia could have a powerful eruption soon.

[MossMan]

.67” on the day, 6.65” for the month. 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

How long do the phases usually last?

I'm not an expert on this, but I think(yikes!) 3 to 4 weeks?

00z NAM in 1 hour 15 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]

11/22/22 5:33 PM [Model Countdown]

This evening....
00z GFS in 2 hours 2 minutes

Later this evening....
00z ECMWF in 4 hours 12 minutes
 

Let's keep the trend going! Colder runs ahead!(c)Rob 2017?

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm not an expert on this, but I think(yikes!) 3 to 4 weeks?

00z NAM in 1 hour 15 minutes

Ok, so if that is correct could theoretically have a "window" similar to 2008 but a bit earlier.

[MWG]

27/48 and cloudy for the day and some light rain. Also, off for the rest of the week! 

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm not an expert on this, but I think(yikes!) 3 to 4 weeks?

00z NAM in 1 hour 15 minutes

 

[Winterdog]

1.46" fell here so far today.  Monthly total up to 6.72".  Current temp 46 after a high of 50.  I'm not feeling too good about the possibility of getting another freeze by the end of the month which will leave me tied with 4 other years at 16 November freezes.  

[bainbridgekid]

1.20” for SEA today. Nice overachiever there.

[HuskyMaestro]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

That does not make any sense... we rarely see nights in the mid 20s with highs around 40 with cloudy skies and precipitation.    

Thought the same too. It is the TWC app after all. I thought it was implying the skies clear out during nights but still showed good precip falling. Keeping the fingers crossed. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

44.4˚F and 1.06" for the day. Looks like that’s about all she wrote for the rain. Good to see Seattle score so well after getting rain shadowed so much earlier this month.

[MossMan]

December 2008 was so amazing! Many of the snowfalls up here were not forecasted as being much more than snow showers but we kept getting these healthy pulses through that would require Winter Storm Warnings over and over again! Here are parts of those warnings, sorry kind of long.