November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The donut hole and east wind is a one two punch. The Puyallup valley is the worst area in Washinfton

No east wind with this one.  This is shown to be a true Fraser River blast.  Going to get VERY cold if this run is correct.

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You live in Puyallup? That valley area is not a good spot. It will rain there in the middle of an Arctic blast.

I use to live on hill just south of Puyallup. Not much better but still. I live just north of Federal Way now!

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Euro is bringing a hard freeze to Redding.  Holy Cow!!!

Was just noting this. Cold air nearly makes it to Baja. 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll warn people to take the snowfall projections with a grain of salt at this point.  These northern blasts almost find a way to produce snow for the Central Puget Sound.  This ECMWF run is better.

I tend to agree. With NE gradients and sub -10 850s, surface low development off Vancouver Island is generally a very good bet. 

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

No east wind with this one.  This is shown to be a true Fraser River blast.  Going to get VERY cold if this run is correct.

I hate the east winds. I live out towards Ravensdale and it kills my snow totals. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Very cold Euro run. Wish it would lock onto the cold and not let go. That seems to have a really easy time happening with extreme summer heat. 

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I use to live on hill just south of Puyallup. Not much better but still. I live just north of Federal Way now!

That hill in Federal Way is between what 400-500 feet? Can make a huge difference in marginal situations. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Getting better!

Some of that pepto over me is no doubt just terrain bleed but there are also signs of upsloping/cold air banking/heavy precip dragging the snow level down to my benefit at times. (This can happen in my locale; it is similar to how the Hood Canal effect works, though takes a different wind direction to manifest.)

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

That hill in Federal Way is between what 400-500 feet? Can make a huge difference in marginal situations. 

Yea I’m at 400ish feet which will help being so close to the water!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I hate the east winds. I live out towards Ravensdale and it kills my snow totals. 

Fraser outflow can do that here if we get too much of it. Usually works to the benefit of points south when it happens.

[snow_wizard]

Man what a run!  No east winds to ruin the cold night potential in this area either.

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Very cold Euro run. Wish it would lock onto the cold and not let go. That seems to have a really easy time happening with extreme summer heat. 

Kind of a similar process? It's both high pressure... except in the cold case the high pressure is over Alaska. One difference is that the configuration of the Alaska ridge has to be oriented correctly to keep us cold, whereas we stay hot under a variety of ridge configurations. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Hmmmm.... Looks like there is a change of significant regional arctic air. What will screw it up this time?

[TacomaWx]

Euro is not on the GEM train for a massive reload and builds a ridge in over us. Not a bad time for an inversion pattern after a major cold shot though. Still time for things to change in the 7-10 day range regarding a reload but the first and second shot of cold air seems to be coming into clearer and more likely status. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Very cold Euro run. Wish it would lock onto the cold and not let go. That seems to have a really easy time happening with extreme summer heat. 

All it takes after a blast like that is just stay away from onshore flow.  We are going to put up some crazy numbers if this pans out.  After the cold we have already had we could be looking at wiping out all of the excess warmth from July 10 through October 20 or thereabouts.  SEA has already eaten up nearly half of it.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hmmmm.... Looks like there is a change of significant regional arctic air. What will screw it up this time?

An inside 24 hours rug-pull.  We have seen it before and we will see it again. #reversepsychology

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hmmmm.... Looks like there is a change of significant regional arctic air. What will screw it up this time?

Maybe our climate not completely impotent. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Euro is not on the GEM train for a massive reload and builds a ridge in over us. Not a bad time for an inversion pattern after a major cold shot though. Still time for things to change in the 7-10 day range regarding a reload but the first and second shot of cold air seems to be coming into clearer and more likely status. 

There will be tons of cold air to preserve with an inversion.

[FroYoBro]

Holy s***! That is a cold looking Euro run. Can't wait until the Columbia freezes over this winter!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Maybe our climate not completely impotent. 

Last December was pretty impressive too.

[Nov1985]

Imagonna wrap the hose spigots just in case this is only half overdone. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Last December was pretty impressive too.

We had multiple days of highs in the 30s and snow at points but the really impressive stuff petered out to the north.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Euro is not on the GEM train for a massive reload and builds a ridge in over us. Not a bad time for an inversion pattern after a major cold shot though. Still time for things to change in the 7-10 day range regarding a reload but the first and second shot of cold air seems to be coming into clearer and more likely status. 

Remember last night's Euro run, where at the end a low pressure system was dropping down well to the South headed toward California?  Not this time.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

An inside 24 hours rug-pull.  We have seen it before and we will see it again. #reversepsychology

“It is never too late for a last-minute rug pull.” — Me

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All it takes after a blast like that is just stay away from onshore flow.  We are going to put up some crazy numbers if this pans out.  After the cold we have already had we could be looking at wiping out all of the excess warmth from July 10 through October 20 or thereabouts.  SEA has already eaten up nearly half of it.

 

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All it takes after a blast like that is just stay away from onshore flow.  We are going to put up some crazy numbers if this pans out.  After the cold we have already had we could be looking at wiping out all of the excess warmth from July 10 through October 20 or thereabouts.  SEA has already eaten up nearly half of it.

How about getting some onshore flow in the form of snow?  Most people here would love that, even if it means the temps aren't quite as cold as they could be.

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Remember last night's Euro run, where at the end a low pressure system was dropping down well to the South headed toward California?  Not this time.

That looks bad for Texas. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Remember last night's Euro run, where at the end a low pressure system was dropping down well to the South headed toward California?  Not this time.

I’m not too worried about the stuff at the end of the run. If this just ends up being a 4 or 5 day event that’s pretty awesome. 

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Imagonna wrap the hose spigots just in case this is only half overdone. 

I work in a warehouse and obviously we're out in the elements. My coworkers last week told me it was cold and I said it wasn't even arctic.

Wait till next week. Looks like 3 days with solid highs in the 20s... maybe more 

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m not too worried about the stuff at the end of the run. If this just ends up being a 4 or 5 day event that’s pretty awesome. 

Nice cold pool in the basin and snow cover would ensure I stay in the deep freeze for a bit.  I'm hoping everyone can get some snow on the ground so we can get some low temp anomalies region-wide.

[Nov1985]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Remember last night's Euro run, where at the end a low pressure system was dropping down well to the South headed toward California?  Not this time.

What's 1000 miles difference between friends? That would warm things up all the way into the Yukon. But I don't think ECMWF control has this one quite pinned yet . Last two runs. 

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Remember last night's Euro run, where at the end a low pressure system was dropping down well to the South headed toward California?  Not this time.

Interesting 

[Kolk1604]

Snow donuthole filling in nicely on the EPS

[Winterdog]

15 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Imagonna wrap the hose spigots just in case this is only half overdone. 

How do you get that blowup view showing just the state of Washington?  I have Pivotal as well.  Thx

Edit: I figured it out.  You have to have the premium subscription

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

How do you get that blowup view showing just the state of Washington?  I have Pivotal as well.  Thx

Edit: I figured it out.  You have to have the premium subscription

Ya, paid. WeatherBell raised prices again so skipping this season... Pivotal okay for a few months, but I miss the ensemble charts at times like these. 

[Terreboner]

Pendleton NWS has to be the laziest office in the region.  Copy and paste for entire 24 hour periods sometimes.

[Kolk1604]

EPS day 10

No ridge over us and block still healthy 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

36 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s too early to worry much about it. If a low spins up or an arctic front moves down (both are very plausible scenarios) then there won’t be a central sound donut hole. This has happened plenty of times in the lead up to big events only for us to end up with lots of snow still. 

You're already worried.  Lol

[Skagit Weather]

The Euro shows a high in the low teens here next Friday. Obviously that's pretty unlikely, but after last year when we had a high of 17F on December 27 at least I know it's not impossible.

[Kolk1604]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Really wasn't expecting to be model riding today with this much potential and excitement! 

Wasn't that long ago when Rob would rather look at a baby's fully loaded diaper!

EPS day 10 - Snow looking better and better 

 

[Meatyorologist]

Gonna be brutally honest... If the Seattle area gets screwed in the snow department and Portland gets nailed, that's still a W in my book.

Clear cold is still fun and we've been blessed here these last few years. I think we've made up for the 2013-18 debt in just about every regard (subfreezing highs, massive overperforming snowstorms in particular). If it's time to share the love, you'll see me cheering on the sidelines, not sobbing. (Still rooting for #BIG$NOWS though!!!)