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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

With the ECMWF showing 925 temps around +3C to +4C on Wednesday... it does not seem to be as close as the GFS makes it appear.

I need to see this change significantly to believe Wednesday will be snowy.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-9831200.png

This post makes it sound like the euro is 100% correct.  Stop.

Edited by MR.SNOWMIZER
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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  • Staff
Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You also can't base a forecast off one model, In this case the euro. That appears to be what you are doing.

It just has a much better handle on 925 temps overall.    And we are within 5 days.  If the ECMWF was showing 925 temp of -2C on Wednesday and the GFS was showing +4C... I would be all in on snow based on one model.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

It just has a much better handle on 925 temps overall.    And we are within 5 days.  If the ECMWF was showing 925 temp of -2C on Wednesday and the GFS was showing +4C... I would be all in on snow based on one model.   

I agree that Wednesday is far from a lock.  A lot riding on that day for how enjoyable this will be.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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12 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Judah screwing with us 

He couldn’t take the model trends anymore and filled his “machine learning” model with weenies and now this is happening.

2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 49

Sub-40 highs - 18

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Downright impressive cold pool on the 00z GFS. Only 10 days out LOL

The EPS has been all over it too though.  Strongly advertising sustained cold offshore flow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I agree that Wednesday is far from a lock.  A lot riding on that day for how enjoyable this will be.

I had the odds at 50% for snow here earlier but IMO it’s more like 30% or less now. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-11

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-24

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-0.89”

Wet season rainfall-17.30”

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  • Staff
Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This post makes it sound like the euro I 100% correct.  Stop.

No... the 500 mb pattern could change.  The ECMWF has no problem caving at that level.   But if the 500mb pattern is stable then I look to the ECMWF for details.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Just for fun. Day 12.5 lol

500h_anom.na.png

Winter for the ages if this continues the next three months!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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  • Longtimer
11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Mate it's okay if people vent their frustrations about a very decent prospect going to waste. It's not like I can just spark up a detailed conversation with my roommate about why I'm disappointed.

This is the only place where I can throw around jargon and weather terms and have people understand their meaning and context. It's the perfect place to rant and be a weenie. Don't confuse venting with being ungrateful about a genuinely chilly regime amidst a tragically warming climate... I am also looking forward to the cooler weather. As I type I'm looking out the window watching the cold rain fall and it's very soothing.

Mate, it’s also okay if I make a relatively harmless post simultaneously poking fun at this/pointing out some of the positive potentials of the pattern. 👍 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Staff
3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree that Wednesday is far from a lock.  A lot riding on that day for how enjoyable this will be.

For the record... I would love a foot of snow here on Wednesday.    It would probably stick around for a long time and make it very Christmassy.    I am just quite skeptical at this point even for my area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
22 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

One thing I am realizing. Puget Sounders are bemoaning the strengthening of that Wednesday low mainly because it messes up snow chances that particular day or thereabouts. The low bombing doesn’t seem to affect or abort the overall cold pattern beyond though. Sometimes when arctic troughs dig too far offshore it can turn a potentially cold pattern into long term warm SW flow. Doesn’t look to be in the cards for this one, which is a win.

This is a good take. Chances for accumulating snow at PDX and points south seem about the same if not higher now. I do not see lowland places in the Puget Sound getting snow with the Wednesday system. Maybe Hood Canal. But given the strength and low placement there will be a warm nose. 
 

There may be some chances in the post frontal airmass, especially with convergence zones I would think. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I wonder if we'll go a while without touching 40F.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

Clear and 35.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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