Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Hawksfan2008 said: Better snowfall from the GEM. The GEM and EURO have been more aligned on snowfall totals. Same with the NBM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The real question is over the next 48 hours of model runs what changes might we see with the secondary polar lobe, ridge placement, amplification, and tilt. I would expect some, and it would be the difference between a dry blast, or modified blast with short-over-water trajectory with snow opportunities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Next 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Precip: Snowfall: 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Another run with plentiful mountain snowfall 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 A more realistic progression on the GFS tonight. 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Unfortunate trend 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 GEFS bit colder through Day 5 with the second cold shot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 We all know it comes down to the EURO and EPS later anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: A more realistic progression on the GFS tonight. Here we go again. You trash it and then believe it. Makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Unfortunate trend I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Unfortunate trend I mean this is really the first run to diverge the way it did. If it’s on the 6z and 12z tomorrow I’d consider it a trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run. Ahh, your still kinda newish here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 6 (continued) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Wow. Day 5.5 850s (Past 4 runs) Much colder tonight so far with that second lobe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Dec 2021. Honestly I feel we may simply repeat last year's cold snap. I would be in heaven with that! 4 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Ahh, your still kinda newish here. Yeah this is the first event I've really looked at on the models. So I definitely have a lot to learn about reading them, but I don't think one GFS run really means much unless the next few runs continue it. And ensembles look colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 This gfs run sux imo. I'd bet it's an outlier, for several runs there has been low pressure development more or less in the same area and now it just vanishes lol. Red flag. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doinko said: I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run. It’s not warmer in the nearer range though the arctic air still hits…it’s just basically a trade off in the short term. The colder air from the first shot sticks around better which is nice. Definitely less precip which I don’t like. It changes the upstream pattern and longevity of the second shots staying power and puts us under a ridge quicker. It’s very typical to have some bad runs thrown into the lead up of some all time great events. I’m betting it’s an outlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 GFS cancels winter, EURO uncancels winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Yeah this is the first event I've really looked at on the models. So I definitely have a lot to learn about reading them, but I don't think one GFS run really means much unless the next few runs continue it. And ensembles look colder No no, you don't quite understand my message, the longtimers on here do. I have a gift... It is actually very successful. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Ahh, your still kinda newish here. He’s the best thing to happen to this forum since I’ve been here. Keep speaking your mind @Doinko don’t let the raccoons scare you 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 times like this, stuck to the ensembles Operationals gunna Operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Winter cancel! Cold rain for all! I told you Mossman was engaging the jinx. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: He’s the best thing to happen to this forum since I’ve been here. Keep speaking your mind @Doinko Wow, your not that new. But alas, I will somehow, some way will this potential in to something wonderful.... For my backyard at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GEM... looks like it wants to reload at the end 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, Doinko said: What does the GFS meteogram look like for Portland/Seattle? Those take a while to come out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Back to the GEFS, Day 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Wow, your not that new. But alas, I will somehow, some way will this potential in to something wonderful.... For my backyard at least. Didn’t remember what you were doing at first but now I gotcha 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Wow, your not that new. But alas, I will somehow, some way will this potential in to something wonderful.... For my backyard at least. I know but just find a way to do it without scaring away the new folks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: 00z GEM... looks like it wants to reload at the end Let’s be clear…the GEM is the true drunk uncle and it’s not even close 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 GEFS colder. PDX -9c mean temp, previous -7.3c 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z ICON (stops at 4am Friday) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: GEFS colder. PDX -9c mean temp, previous -7.3c Looks like it matches 12z EPS for Seattle now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The runs tonight really aren't anywhere close to bad-- and if anything we've seen pretty widespread short term improvements. Let's see some ensemble improvement and get the cold air in there before we worry about moisture exacts. 4 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 GEFS, ridge does not fall apart like on OP. Also, that strong trough over Canada has inched closer last three runs, maybe the crazy gem outcomes are possible.  6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: I know but just find a way to do it without scaring away the new folks I am not worried about their sensitivities, my ways are selfish when it comes to the winter goods. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 It's just the operational run throwing a dart. December 2021 had near same crazy cold models. And models backed off and moderated in the end. Yet it was still a widespread event from Dec 27 to Dec 30. Checking the photo archive from a year ago... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: I am not worried about their sensitivities, my ways are selfish when it comes to the winter goods. Hate to break it to you, but you're getting cold rain with this one. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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