November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I'm not complaining about this run

Up here it is still excellent.

[Gradient Keeper]

Watch the EPS not only be in disagreement Day 5+, but be the coldest run yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Look away. Do not look. This is worse than staring directly at the sun!

[Deweydog]

We’ve lost The Rob.

[Phishy Wx]

meh

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Up in Washington it is. Not so much down here.

I see pepto in Oregon, is that not you?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Deweydog said:

We’ve lost The Rob.

It's still okay up in Washington.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I see pepto in Oregon, is that not you?

Not with 850s at -6c to -8c and no offshore flow.

[Bueryan]

5 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Sorry

10 laps around the gym. Get moving. **whistle blow

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er Look away. Do not look. This is worse than staring directly at the sun!

For the next act, that low off Skagway is going to squirt down and finally slide west of Astoria. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

For the next act, that low off Skagway is going to squirt down and finally slide west of Astoria. 

That seems very likely. Haha yes!

[snow_wizard]

I think it's a good sign the GFS and ECMWF went opposite directions tonight.  One is uber cold and too dry while one is a lot wetter and not as cold.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er Look away. Do not look. This is worse than staring directly at the sun!

About to get very rainy 

[Kolk1604]

There's a trend here. If there's something we don't like, it's always Day 7. 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's a good sign the GFS and ECMWF went opposite directions tonight.  One is uber cold and too dry while one is a lot wetter and not as cold.

As I mentioned earlier, we're closer to moving into that crucial time frame where the models are locked in. Not yet. Over the next 48 hours of model runs what changes might we see with the secondary polar lobe and ridge placement, amplification, and tilt. I would expect some, and it would be the difference between a dry bitter blast, or modified blast with short-over-water trajectory with snow opportunities, or maybe just an Everett north event.

6z GFS in 2 hours 37 minutes

[Bueryan]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

There's a trend here. If there's something we don't like, it's always Day 7. 

It's called reality.

[Deweydog]

Blocking has taken a little bit of a beating.

[snow_wizard]

Surprising finish to the ECMWF.  Weird run.

[Kolk1604]

Here we go... Day 1

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Bueryan said:

It's called reality.

Not really cause the EPS is always the exact opposite 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Bueryan said:

It's called reality.

Eh.  Nothing is decided yet.

[Phishy Wx]

whomp whomp

 

i'm sleepy and wine drunk

[SouthHillFrosty]

Kinda got a 2020 feel

[snow_wizard]

BTW the GEFS was fabulous tonight.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Kinda got a 2020 feel

No.

[Gradient Keeper]

WRF gets the job done. My favorite model lol

[ShawniganLake]

Growing consensus of whatever cold we see next week will probably be a quick hitter, at least at the upper levels. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

WRF gets the job done. My favorite model lol

They need to tweak that model; it's been on the fritz.

[Nov1985]

End of ECMWF run has big features still undecided. Last three runs have big differences.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW the GEFS was fabulous tonight.

???  Maybe short term.  Not long term

[Kolk1604]

Day 2, Hr6

[Kolk1604]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

???  Maybe short term.  Not long term

Yeah, but it locks in the low level bitter air for a long time, at least for PDX where we are blasted with bitter winds for a week. That's the outcome I'm hoping for.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Growing consensus of whatever cold we see next week will probably be a quick hitter, at least at the upper levels. 

Could be.  Might be a Dec 1956 type event.  That works for me.  This is still really early.  There is still a fair chance of cold being prolonged by an inversion.  It's way too early to assume the early moderation shown by the ECMWF is reality. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 3

Thanks for the EPS maps!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

They need to tweak that model; it's been on the fritz.

Since the GFS updated to scrambled porn on HBO a few years ago, the WRF has become unusable when it comes to CAA in the mid/long range.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

???  Maybe short term.  Not long term

It has several days of really cold weather.  What more can you ask this early in the season.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Since the GFS updated to scrambled porn on HBO a few years ago, the WRF has become unusable when it comes to CAA in the mid/long range.

You mean like this? IF this were to ever somehow pan out this would be the coldest I can recall. Ever.

[Kolk1604]

Day 4 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

You mean like this? IF this were to ever somehow pan out this would be the coldest I can recall. Ever.

WTF?