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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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Looks like today will be KSEA's first sub-50 high of the winter. Looking at 45/46. Almost got into the 30s to, but looks like temps bottomed out at 40 this morning. I wonder if we'll have an 11:59 low.

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

What do the temps/DPs look like at hour 99? 

Like upper 30s lol so this is obviously just eye candy but it's fun to look at. It does appear that a decent portion of the region at least into the hills of the western lowlands will see some snow in the air. Maybe a mix in heavier downpours or anafrontal setups. If the anafront drops its load in the middle of the night then it gets real interesting. Not 2-25-19 interesting but certainly a surprise cannot be ruled out, esp above 400ft.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pulsating… Always pretty suspect when basically every anomaly goes through a run to run intensification. 

Was about to say the same thing. It makes me think the 6z and 18z ensemble runs are run slightly differently than the 00z and 12z because anomalies  across the board are often at different intensities.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Was about to say the same thing. It makes me think the 6z and 18z ensemble runs are run slightly differently than the 00z and 12z because anomalies  across the board are often at different intensities.

We do enjoy calling it the druncle and night shift so it must be related to drinking and partying.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pulsating… Always pretty suspect when basically every anomaly goes through a run to run intensification. 

Yeah... pulsating is a real thing with the ensembles.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It probably has nothing to do with money laundering or the cartel.

Going for work or for fun?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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WTF?  -8.4 on the GEFS mean for Seattle early next week.  That is nuts for this early.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

I will be in New Hampshire 11/14 - 18 so expect any snow to be delayed until then. 

And NH will have record heat at that time.  That's just the way it works.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

November has been canceled!! 

500h_anom.na.png

That would probably be cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No snowleft except on the north facing foothills of the Blues but that snow helped accelerate foliage. Probably not going to get much where I am on Thursday but as I said, give others a chance.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And NH will have record heat at that time.  That's just the way it works.

It was 76 today in Omaha.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

GFS temperature maps show subfreezing temps for many hours each day early next week.

Didn't you spend all summer mocking the GFS temp maps?   Asking for a friend.   ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Nov1985 said:

Winter is coming!

Welcome!    

Nice to have another person in the heart of the normal c-zone position.    You can give me fair warning of what to expect when its slipping south.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Major sunset alert!  🚨 

 

871B5262-3AB9-4F95-A860-477FE31365E5.jpeg

Yup, we have ourselves a gorgeous one. Lots of snow-topped foothills.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Still some snow at the south falls day use area. 1310’ elevation.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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37 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GEFS continues to improve and trend colder. This run pulls arctic air into the Gorge and Columbia Basin. The Dalles mean temp bottoms out at -13.5c which is impressive for any time of the Winter. I hope 00z doesn't pull back, and need to see the EPS to get into the Druncles liquor cabinet. Make it happen! C'MON!!!!

00z GFS in 3 hours 22 minutes
00z ECMWF in 5 hours 32 minutes

850tw-mean.us_nw.png

gfs-the-dalles-us-455n-1(4).png

I popped the lock, lazy European just needs to take some initiative 

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

How's the 18z EPS looking like?

Hasn't started yet.    Usually starts around 6 p.m.

And forgot to mention that we have earlier model runs starting Sunday!    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Wish it was permanent 

I wouldn't want standard time in the warm season.   

But it would be nice if they could just speed up the processing time in general.

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