November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Notice how no matter what happens with the low, we're still left under a sprawling, weak longwave trough. That occurs as all vorticity is shunted SW well in advance of the PNW, and we're left with its propagating wave, like the waves left by a stone thrown in water. We're left with the scraps of all the really exciting and important stuff that will happen to our NW.

All that bombing out the trough is doing off the coast of BC? Those are the exact dynamics that were taking place over WA/OR in previous runs and funneling bitter air into the lowlands. That can only happen so far east and so far south with a healthy, well placed block.

As it stands, the low that is incepting the block is bombing out *as we speak*, so any last minute detail changes will occur over the next 48 hours and they could be significant, given how difficult cutoff dynamics are to correctly simulate. But from my semi-trained eye, I don't really see how this turns super #kold. Still will get really chilly and fun with plenty of snow chances though!

Some serious, non-emotional analysis here and its greatly appreciated.   And I know you love cold and snow as much as anyone else.    I believe the exuberance and the detached scientific analysis can co-exist but its always a source of friction on here in times like this.  

 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

AFD today thought westward extension was somewhat likely, though they didn't say that was certain yet. I'm not expecting a snowmaggedon, but there seems to be plenty of room regardless for accumulations with convective showers or just a lucky placement of the trough.

As is always true, I am likely to be at the very least subtly wrong (probably way more than subtly!) My hubris will come back to haunt me.

[gusky]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

As is always true, I am likely to be at the very least subtly wrong (probably way more than subtly!) My hubris will come back to haunt me.

Oh, mine will too. As much as I try to stay unbiased about snow events, my excitement always ends up clouding my vision.

[Terreboner]

Another "no changes to previous discussion" post from Pendleton NWS.  Big surprise.

[TacomaWx]

The potential is still here folks this run has shown us we still really don’t have a grasp on what’ll happen and we may not even know until tomorrow. Overall your odds are better the further north you are. There will be some changes over the next 24-36 hours that could make or break this event. The euro is a positive step in the right direction atleast just not as big of one as we were hoping for. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Another "no changes to previous discussion" post from Pendleton NWS.  Big surprise.

Conference call time!

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some serious, non-emotional analysis here and its greatly appreciated.   And I know you love cold and snow as much as anyone else.    I believe the exuberance and the detached scientific analysis can co-exist but its always a source of friction on here in times like this.  

 

I like to think I have a decent perspective on here. Sadly at this point a large Arctic event doesn't make much meteorological sense.

But I said the same thing before about Feb 2021, given the lame 500mb progression and pathetic easterly bleedout. Then all the atmosphere did was deliver the best snowstorm I've ever seen in Seattle... under +PNA!!? Not gonna lie I still gush about that event, it was truly fascinating in retrospect. I could go into detail all day but I don't have the energy this morning 

[Nov1985]

Monday morning 12/5, past 3 runs. For the masochists who haven't had enough.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

Monday morning 12/5, past 3 runs. For the masochists who haven't had enough.

[High Desert Mat?]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Conference call time!

I’m in!!!!

[Guest administrator]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Notice how no matter what happens with the low, we're still left under a sprawling, weak longwave trough. That occurs as all vorticity is shunted SW well in advance of the PNW, and we're left with its propagating wave, like the waves left by a stone thrown in water. We're left with the scraps of all the really exciting and important stuff that will happen to our NW.

All that bombing out the trough is doing off the coast of BC? Those are the exact dynamics that were taking place over WA/OR in previous runs and funneling bitter air into the lowlands. That can only happen so far east and so far south with a healthy, well placed block.

As it stands, the low that is incepting the block is bombing out *as we speak*, so any last minute detail changes will occur over the next 48 hours and they could be significant, given how difficult cutoff dynamics are to correctly simulate. But from my semi-trained eye, I don't really see how this turns super #kold. Still will get really chilly and fun with plenty of snow chances though!

You’re leading people on. Cold rain for those south of the Golden Ears and under 1000ft is almost outright assured. To get a block to work like that we’d need a Time Machine to a time before colonization.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I like to think I have a decent perspective on here. Sadly at this point a large Arctic event doesn't make much meteorological sense.

But I said the same thing before about Feb 2021, given the lame 500mb progression and pathetic easterly bleedout. Then all the atmosphere did was deliver the best snowstorm I've ever seen in Seattle... under +PNA!!? Not gonna lie I still gush about that event, it was truly fascinating in retrospect. I could go into detail all day but I don't have the energy this morning 

February 2021 was a massive coast to coast arctic outbreak we were able to scrape some crumbs from. Very different situation this time around. 

[Meatyorologist]

For what it's worth, the 12z GFS is an excellent run. Active and chilly, cold and snowy at times, no SW flow, plenty of mountain snowpack buildup. About everything you'd want in a run this time of year.

Friendly reminder: we're still five days away from December, and I'm already feeling the creep of burnout. Two major potential Arctic blasts to track by Thanksgiving is almost unheard of!

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS still excellent somehow. We have to hope we are just seeing warm outliers for OP runs.

[Guest administrator]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some serious, non-emotional analysis here and its greatly appreciated.   And I know you love cold and snow as much as anyone else.    I believe the exuberance and the detached scientific analysis can co-exist but its always a source of friction on here in times like this.  

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2021 was a massive coast to coast arctic outbreak we were able to scrape some crumbs from. Very different situation this time around. 

Wasn't a direct comparison, but more of a 'the devil is in the details' kind of comment. The atmosphere has ways of working things out and surprising us if it pleases.

[Slushy Inch]

Many GEFS members are sub-freezing for a week for Sea-Tac wtf.

[Guest administrator]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wasn't a direct comparison, but more of a 'the devil is in the details' kind of comment. The atmosphere has ways of working things out and surprising us if it pleases.

WINTER IS OVER OUR CHANCES ARE DONE AND IT WILL BE SEASONAL ZONAL. FORKS OUT, ITS JUDAHS AND JOES TIME.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I like to think I have a decent perspective on here. Sadly at this point a large Arctic event doesn't make much meteorological sense.

But I said the same thing before about Feb 2021, given the lame 500mb progression and pathetic easterly bleedout. Then all the atmosphere did was deliver the best snowstorm I've ever seen in Seattle... under +PNA!!? Not gonna lie I still gush about that event, it was truly fascinating in retrospect. I could go into detail all day but I don't have the energy this morning 

That was such an amazing weekend! 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, administrator said:

WINTER IS OVER OUR CHANCES ARE DONE AND IT WILL BE SEASONAL ZONAL. FORKS OUT, ITS JUDAHS AND JOES TIME.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

That was such an amazing weekend! 

[Kolk1604]

Highs In the 30a, lows in the 20s. Let's enjoy next week and see what it brings. After that let's hope for a patter recent and maybe have that generational event in the middle of December 

[Meatyorologist]

I feel something biiiig brewing this winter. Maybe not next week though 

[awright-31]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Highs In the 30a, lows in the 20s. Let's enjoy next week and see what it brings. After that let's hope for a patter recent and maybe have that generational event in the middle of December 

I really think January is our month. It’s way overdue.

[Guest administrator]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I feel something biiiig brewing this winter. Maybe not next week though 

Cat 4 AR?!

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Highs In the 30a, lows in the 20s. Let's enjoy next week and see what it brings. After that let's hope for a patter recent and maybe have that generational event in the middle of December 

16.5" for me with temps in the mid 30's most of the time.  Kind of Pepto Dismal I guess.

[SouthHillFrosty]

South Sound snow hole is very apparent. Called this days ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Highs In the 30a, lows in the 20s. Let's enjoy next week and see what it brings. After that let's hope for a patter recent and maybe have that generational event in the middle of December 

Holy cow, in the 2’ range here on this run. Let’s hold off on the big event until after the 20th. Plz. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Holy cow, in the 2’ range here on this run. Let’s hold off on the big event until after the 20th. Plz. 

I will take my 17.5.

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Highs In the 30a, lows in the 20s. Let's enjoy next week and see what it brings. After that let's hope for a patter recent and maybe have that generational event in the middle of December 

I approve this 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I feel something biiiig brewing this winter. Maybe not next week though 

Easy to forget this event is coming at the tail end of November/first couple days of December. Very early. 
 This still does have a chance to deliver a decent brief snowfall to the lowlands…maybe something along the lines of December 2016 or 2017 up here if things line up right. Wednesday does look intriguing still. Should start off as snow then to rain and back to snow. Plenty of highs in the mid 30s next week. Not the arctic outbreak we hoped for but it could be fun at times. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, administrator said:

Cat 4 AR?!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Easy to forget this event is coming at the tail end of November/first couple days of December. Very early. 
 This still does have a chance to deliver a decent brief snowfall to the lowlands…maybe something along the lines of December 2016 or 2017 up here if things line up right. Wednesday does look intriguing still. Should start off as snow then to rain and back to snow. Plenty of highs in the mid 30s next week. Not the arctic outbreak we hoped for but it could be fun at times. 

Much more enjoyable than any of the summer season.

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

South Sound snow hole is very apparent. Called this days ago.

You know it's funny.

The mountains, there beautiful. The scenery we have is awesome because of all the peaks and valleys. You just can't have a good sunrise or sunset without them.

But it moments like this? Dude your in the way. Your blocking all of our fun. It's a love/hate relationship 

[MossMan]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Much more enjoyable than any of the summer season.

It was a lovely summer. October was the crappy month due to the dryness the first half. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Just got off the conference call with Culver Josh and bassaholic meat wagon. Next week isn’t looking too snowy for the lowlanders and people south of about 48 degrees latitude unless you’re over 4000’. Temps are pretty marginal this go round. The southerlies will take over. I wanna thank Dewey Matt for chiming in on the call,  he has a lot of knowledgeable info on people that live near Stampede Pass, i.e. Phil which led me to believe that in about two weeks the pattern will reset again but with much more AAM and less +pna. How he knows is anyones guess. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I like to think I have a decent perspective on here. Sadly at this point a large Arctic event doesn't make much meteorological sense.

But I said the same thing before about Feb 2021, given the lame 500mb progression and pathetic easterly bleedout. Then all the atmosphere did was deliver the best snowstorm I've ever seen in Seattle... under +PNA!!? Not gonna lie I still gush about that event, it was truly fascinating in retrospect. I could go into detail all day but I don't have the energy this morning 

This is exactly one of the reasons I'm drawn to weather events west of the cascades,  the element of surprise is fascinating to me and right when we think we've experienced every situation when it comes to producing snowfall around here we have something like Feb 2021.  I've spent 35 years watching and learning about snow events in the hood canal area and I feel like I've got a pretty good handle on looking at a set up and knowing if it will deliver a good snowfall or not and to this day February 2019 still blows my mind what I witnessed out here. I knew it had the potential to be a big event but it exceeded what I thought was possible out here for a heavy snow event. To this day it was one of the most amazing moments I spent with my son standing on our deck together watching the thunder snow happen. I told him it was a special moment we spent together and we might never see anything like it again! We stood outside for 1 hr watching in amazement as it snowed 4 inches in 1 hr. Pics are that night during the thunder snow and the next morning.  Most I measured was 38 inches on the ground but we had about 50 inches of snowfall in a 3 day period. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It was a lovely summer. October was the crappy month due to the dryness the first half. 

Yeah... we have the best summer weather in the country.    Wish we had a few rain events this past summer but you can't beat our 80-degree, low humidity sunny summer days.    Heaven on Earth.   

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is exactly one of the reasons I'm drawn to weather events west of the cascades,  the element of surprise is fascinating to me and right when we think we've experienced every situation when it comes to producing snowfall around here we have something like Feb 2021.  I've spent 35 years watching and learning about snow events in the hood canal area and I feel like I've got a pretty good handle on looking at a set up and knowing if it will deliver a good snowfall or not and to this day February 2019 still blows my mind what I witnessed out here. I knew it had the potential to be a big event but it exceeded what I thought was possible out here for a heavy snow event. To this day it was one of the most amazing moments I spent with my son standing on our deck together watching the thunder snow happen. I told him it was a special moment we spent together and we might never see anything like it again! We stood outside for 1 hr watching in amazement as it snowed 4 inches in 1 hr. Pics are that night during the thunder snow and the next morning.  Most I measured was 38 inches on the ground but we had about 50 inches of snowfall in a 3 day period. 

I remember that second pic when you posted it... such an amazing sight.    

[Noah9549]

Anyone have the eps ensemble member low placements?