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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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Wasn't a great EURO run down this way, but I can definitely give it credit for keeping the hope alive. I'd bet some small tweaks would keep some from completely losing out.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Down to 24 with the DP sitting at 12.  Hating to see the donut hole for Bellingham/Whatcom County on the model run, and I am guessing it will pan out that way.  I'm thinking we will see something up here, but not sure it will be worth writing home about.

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1 minute ago, gusky said:

What's the record number of pages in a month on TWFs?

Feb 2019 threatened 500+ but it was split into three threads.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Feb 2019 threatened 500+ but it was split into three threads.

Jeez, and here I thought 258 was a lot.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Just now, gusky said:

Jeez, and here I thought 258 was a lot.

That'll happen when it's epic and snowy for everyone here for a month straight!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Down to 24 with the DP sitting at 12.  Hating to see the donut hole for Bellingham/Whatcom County on the model run, and I am guessing it will pan out that way.  I'm thinking we will see something up here, but not sure it will be worth writing home about.

That is seriously impressive cold for late November!

6z NAM in 10 minutes
6z GFS in 2 hours 10 minutes

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Here's the NWS graphical forecast for new snow Wednesday by 10 a.m. The low snow total colors aren't super distinguishable from each other, but it looks like most places north of Tacoma pick up around an inch. The big winner is western Snohomish county with 2-4".

654447310_ScreenShot2022-11-28at11_23_20PM.thumb.png.495b41fc29034a4069528581cd5a3c77.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: 9.25" (12/18: 0.75", 12/19: 2.5", 12/20: 6"; Trace: 11/7, 12/2, 12/21; Flakes: 11/29, 11/30, 12/1)

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2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Here's the NWS graphical forecast for new snow Wednesday by 10 a.m. The low snow total colors aren't super distinguishable from each other, but it looks like most places north of Tacoma pick up around an inch. The big winner is western Snohomish county with 2-4".

654447310_ScreenShot2022-11-28at11_23_20PM.thumb.png.495b41fc29034a4069528581cd5a3c77.png

Looks like we're going to need spotters in Aberdeen, Shelton, Olympia tomorrow morning to play radar.

 

s-l1600.jpg

chrome_QC5IOprxWF.png

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10 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The airmass is decent the morning before that low arrives. Mid to upper 20s at the surface and -7c 850mb. We get a southerly breeze as the low approaches though.

sfct.us_nw.png

850th.us_nw.png

Those surface temps seem pretty ambitious, likely needing a clear sky and full decoupling.

The southerly flow seems like an inevitability based on the nature of the system. It’s basically a closed low that’s vertically-stacked. If it were an open wave the track would be a lot more crucial. If we had more of a formidable seed air mass, this might be the type of system where you could see significant snow despite the weak southerlies thanks to the fact there isn’t a ton of WAA associated with them.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

How did Day 2-5 850s look? Colder?

A tad colder for days 2-3 but about the same maybe a tad warmer for days 4-5. This is day 2.

F02225FA-3E20-441A-8FB3-1AFCCFB13644.png

D7504098-8088-4720-809C-63EA1ADF88E6.png

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 49

Sub-40 highs - 18

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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06z NAM showing some snow showers potentially making their way into Seattle tonight.1669708800-Mnw6VpxReEQ.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

This escalates quickly. 

80c33e44-8b66-4b82-acc7-19827f8312e9.gif

Now THAT'S what I like to see!

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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It's not a great setup but I do hope at the very least those southerly winds will be a bit exciting as the front comes on shore. I have to imagine stratiform light rain as the most boring thing imaginable...

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Small flakes falling here in north seattle with a temp of 30deg. 

Just looked out the window and saw some! Interesting how little precip there is on radar

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Snowing at an exhilarating rate of 1 snowflake per minute right now. Zero metering this storm as we speak

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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11 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Looks like there is a little something building on the east side of the Olympics that might come this way soon. 

Welp, guess I’m not gonna sleep tonight after all.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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I wouldn't be surprised if we see wind advisories up for the valley by afternoon-- models are advertising some occasional 45-55 mph gusts as the front swings through.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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