November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Sonny Summers said:

We've all been at 35°F and rain at some point. It's such a bummer.

I had 37 degree rain this morning which is pretty impressive for this early.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Definitely but I would like to see some snow

At this point just cold will be good enough for me.  You are talking extreme rarity to see snow before Nov 12 or so.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

You guys will be worn out before Thanksgiving. 

Buried in snow and watching the World Cup on Thanksgiving! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

You guys will be worn out before Thanksgiving. 

Oh, hardly. This is endlessly amusing.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

We've all been at 35°F and rain at some point. It's such a bummer.

My fave is the 32.5˚F rain. I have experienced it. More than once.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

That's still worse than the 18z GEFS

The 18z was kind of out there for how cold it was.  I'm happy the 0z is still this cold.

[Kolk1604]

1am Monday to 10pm Thursday

00z GEFS has snow when temps aren't marginal 

[snow_wizard]

Down to 35 out there now.  44/35 for the day so far.  That should turn the rest of the leaves.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point just cold will be good enough for me.  You are talking extreme rarity to see snow before Nov 12 or so.

I would like to see it snow IMBY with this event, and am hoping it does, but I am not going to let it ruin my day/week if it doesn’t. At least the torching is taking a break.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z was kind of out there for how cold it was.  I'm happy the 0z is still this cold.

00z is still colder than the 12z as well.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35.2˚F.

[snow_wizard]

I think the ensemble mean is especially useful for showing where the trough axis will be located and it continues east of the operational.  That is a big deal.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I would like to see it snow IMBY with this event, and am hoping it does, but I am not going to let it ruin my day/week if it doesn’t. At least the torching is taking a break.

Up your way I think you have a chance for some pretty big deal stuff both cold and snow wise.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Up your way I think you have a chance for some pretty big deal stuff both cold and snow wise.

Seems increasingly unlikely to happen this weekend, but beyond then it gets clown rangey so who knows. Surprises can happen.

[snow_wizard]

Just might pull off my first freeze tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These models get worse by the year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m sorry but the pattern next week would not deliver sub freezing highs. I don’t care what the GEFS ensemble says, people need to get real. 

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m sorry but the pattern next week would not deliver sub freezing highs. I don’t care what the GEFS ensemble says, people need to get real. 

I don't expect subfreezing highs to happen, just the ensembles are much colder than the operational.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m sorry but the pattern next week would not deliver sub freezing highs. I don’t care what the GEFS ensemble says, people need to get real. 

I think the coldest possible highs will be maybe mid 30s if we get a situation with cold air in place and an overrunning event.  Any clear days will probably be 40 or so with solid freezes at night.  Still quite respectable.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I don't expect subfreezing highs to happen, just the ensembles are much colder than the operational.

I haven’t taken a microscope to the ensembles tonight, but a lot of times that happens due to the lower resolution on the ensembles. The one thing I noticed, about the output for NW Oregon was the lows it is producing seemed fairly reasonable, but the highs seemed way too cold. Likely over estimating CAA. 

[van city]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m sorry but the pattern next week would not deliver sub freezing highs. I don’t care what the GEFS ensemble says, people need to get real. 

I think all people are real here, are they not?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I haven’t taken a microscope to the ensembles tonight, but a lot of times that happens due to the lower resolution on the ensembles. The one thing I noticed, about the output for NW Oregon was the lows it is producing seemed fairly reasonable, but the highs seemed way too cold. Likely over estimating CAA. 

The Gorge might have a shot at freezing outflow winds.  That wouldn't shock me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the coldest possible highs will be maybe mid 30s if we get a situation with cold air in place and an overrunning event.  Any clear days will probably be 40 or so with solid freezes at night.  Still quite respectable.  

That’s reasonable, especially if you are being specific to your location. The best chance for lowland snow is probably also on some kind of overrunning situation that probably wouldn’t come into focus on the models until a few days out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Gorge might have a shot at freezing outflow winds.  That wouldn't shock me.

I kind of doubt it unless we have the opportunity to have a nice cold pool set up. The models have so ridiculously overstated CAA over the past few years I’m kind of burned out on it. 

[Jbolin]

Ahhh, it would appear we had shitty (late afternoon/early evening) model runs.

The attitude here is much subdued from this time yesterday.

Should I hide the knives? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

Ahhh, it would appear we had shitty (late afternoon/early evening) model runs.

The attitude here is much subdued from this time yesterday.

Should I hide the knives? 

I don’t think they were shitty. We are going to see a very chilly period coming up. Just the reality of models backing away from feet of snow and 0 degree temps. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

11 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Rod Hill has spoken!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kgw.com/amp/article/weather/rod-hill-winter-outlook-portland-oregon-2022-2023/283-dd050e64-6faf-4f5a-9048-8a48e4848a8f

Rod calling for a backloaded winter!

Winter outlook summary

• Rainy and mild in November and December
• Expect little to no valley snow before Jan. 1
• Overall, Portland should see normal precipitation totals and temperatures
• Expect some snow, about two to three inches, but a big snowstorm is not likely. If a big snowstorm does happen, the best chance for an event that brings eight inches or more of snow will be mid-February into early March.
• Mt. Hood snowpack should reach 85-100% of normal

[Gradient Keeper]

@Meatyorologist, you got the EURO tonight?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Ahhh, it would appear we had shitty (late afternoon/early evening) model runs.

The attitude here is much subdued from this time yesterday.

Should I hide the knives? 

The numbers are actually pretty much the same.  I think the main complaint is the fine details that dictate snow chances.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Rod calling for a backloaded winter!

Winter outlook summary

• Rainy and mild in November and December
• Expect little to no valley snow before Jan. 1
• Overall, Portland should see normal precipitation totals and temperatures
• Expect some snow, about two to three inches, but a big snowstorm is not likely. If a big snowstorm does happen, the best chance for an event that brings eight inches or more of snow will be mid-February into early March.
• Mt. Hood snowpack should reach 85-100% of normal

He might have a problem right out of the gate with this month.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t think they were shitty. We are going to see a very chilly period coming up. Just the reality of models backing away from feet of snow and 0 degree temps. 

Yeah there hasn’t been a devastating rug pull or anything it’s still looking pretty solid just snow is looking less likely. It is looking like pretty legit cold for early November. A significant snow event was never really in the cards anyways but we could still see some lucky people get some snow. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t think they were shitty. We are going to see a very chilly period coming up. Just the reality of models backing away from feet of snow and 0 degree temps. 

Yeah....there was that one ridiculous run yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you are banking on November to Make or break a winter you will almost always been disappointed. Just be glad we could be looking at a dynamic month, and some stuff to pay attention to

as we move closer to PRIME time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Yeah there hasn’t been a devastating rug pull or anything it’s still looking pretty solid just snow is looking less likely. It is looking like pretty legit cold for early November. A significant snow event was never really in the cards anyways but we could still see some lucky people get some snow. 

Yeah I guess I never considered a region wide snow fest as an actual possibility. The signs overall of some chilly weather have improved. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....there was that one ridiculous run yesterday.

I think it was the Nov 1st 00z run, 23" of snow in Portland with a low temp of -4. Completely reasonable.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If you are banking on November to Make or break a winter you will almost always been disappointed. Just be glad we could be looking at a dynamic month, and some stuff to pay attention to

as we move closer to PRIME time. 

Good point.  Since 1850 there have been three seasons where November really made the winter.  1896, 1955, and 1985.  Those three were orders of magnitude out of the norm.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Good point.  Since 1850 there have been three seasons where November really made the winter.  1896, 1955, and 1985.  Those three were orders of magnitude out of the norm.

Even then January and February was snowy/cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Btw the record low at Salem today was 13 set in 1936, Eugene 16 from 1935. In a historical context this is nothing. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Even then January and February was snowy/cold.

Yup.  Up here the Feb event was a pretty big deal.  That November freeze was nuts though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Btw the record low at Salem today was 13 set in 1936, Eugene 16 from 1935. In a historical context this is nothing. 

That was quite a pair of Novembers.  There wasn't even really a blast with the 1936 cold.  It just kind of seeped in and coalesced.