November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[AlTahoe]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  We might as well just throw darts at this point.  One thing we do know is all of the models show all of the indices will be absolutely tanked for the next 2 weeks.  This is going to be very abnormal no matter how it plays out.

One thing I will say is I'm having trouble believing how wet the ECMWF runs have been with so much blocking in play.  I really can't think of an analog to that.

Nws Reno doesn't buy any of the model solutions showing a storm for next Thursday so far. lol

 

There remains a lot of uncertainty 
within ensembles in snow amounts with these systems. The GFS IVT 
plume has been showing a slightly increased, more consistent 
stream of moisture moving into the region on Thursday, though 
ensembles show a strong negative 500 mb height anomaly dissolving 
as it comes onshore. It may end up being a system that looks 
really good 5-7 days out but then ends up shifting slightly and 
becomes a drier, windier system.

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  We might as well just throw darts at this point.  One thing we do know is all of the models show all of the indices will be absolutely tanked for the next 2 weeks.  This is going to be very abnormal no matter how it plays out.

One thing I will say is I'm having trouble believing how wet the ECMWF runs have been with so much blocking in play.  I really can't think of an analog to that.

Some of the months with greatest blocking have had tons of precip. See 1949-50 and 1968-69.

[Front Ranger]

Going out on a limb here, but I think Randy will do well.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Nws Reno doesn't buy any of the model solutions showing a storm for next Thursday so far. lol

 

There remains a lot of uncertainty 
within ensembles in snow amounts with these systems. The GFS IVT 
plume has been showing a slightly increased, more consistent 
stream of moisture moving into the region on Thursday, though 
ensembles show a strong negative 500 mb height anomaly dissolving 
as it comes onshore. It may end up being a system that looks 
really good 5-7 days out but then ends up shifting slightly and 
becomes a drier, windier system.

I think the models are still too crude to have much skill in these abnormal blocking situations.  There will almost certainly be surprises.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Some of the months with greatest blocking have had tons of precip. See 1949-50 and 1968-69.

It can happen.  I don't think Jan 1969 was all that wet though.

[Terreboner]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think the models are still too crude to have much skill in these abnormal blocking situations.  There will almost certainly be surprises.

It's almost as if these models were designed with everyone at sea level during blocking patterns.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking increasingly likely this blocking is going to be an ongoing feature this winter.  We are rapidly reaching the point of no return on that IMO.  This might be enough to break the January curse.  Remains to be seen of course.

Throwing darts for the next week but spiking the football on the entire winter.    

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Going out on a limb here, but I think Randy will do well.

And Whatcom County.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking increasingly likely this blocking is going to be an ongoing feature this winter.  We are rapidly reaching the point of no return on that IMO.  This might be enough to break the January curse.  Remains to be seen of course.

 

 

 

It’s November 27th.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Throwing darts for the next week but spiking the football on the entire winter.    

Just going by what past history shows.  Winters that are blocky all the way through have a common thread leading into them.

I did say January is still the wildcard though.  I don't trust that month for obvious reasons.

[Hawksfan2008]

Really curious what this looks like if the bombing of that low delays just a bit 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Just going by what past history shows.  Winters that are blocky all the way through have a common thread leading into them.

I did say January is still the wildcard though.  I don't trust that month for obvious reasons.

If you don’t believe in January it won’t believe in you. Jim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It can happen.  I don't think Jan 1969 was all that wet though.

It was down here. 

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It can happen.  I don't think Jan 1969 was all that wet though.

It wasn't at SEA, but definitely was for the region overall.

[Terreboner]

Midweek storm has "huge surprise" written all over it!!  How many times in the past 3 days has the position of the low pressure and accompanying frontal band changed?  Only about every 6 hours, lol.

Someone is going to score big and I'm hoping it can channel its inner Feb/2019.

GO HAWKS!!!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

9 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Who could not love Rob, let's be real. The first winter he isn't here will be incomplete.

 Appreciate that. I know some people who might. Who may. Who could perhaps. I'm just trying to do my part in this crazy weather community.

[smerfylicious]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Next 24 hours... I think both of us have a chance at some snow by tomorrow morning.  

Could you spare a couple inches sir? 

 

[Winterdog]

Having an ice pellet shower right now, 41 degrees after a low of 37.   The Euro says I should get a couple inches of snow this week even though it shows temps above freezing for pretty much the entire run.  To me, slop is okay while it's falling. 

[Hawksfan2008]

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It wasn't at SEA, but definitely was for the region overall.

That was a case where the blocking migrated from 160 to 150 so that is interesting.  That month also had tanked NAO which is now forecast to be a big feature for week two.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Having an ice pellet shower right now, 41 degrees after a low of 37.   The Euro says I should get a couple inches of snow this week even though it shows temps above freezing for pretty much the entire run.  To me, slop is okay while it's falling. 

I'll be shocked if you only get 2 inches.  I mean really astounded.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

The EPS snowfall projections are hanging in there.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That was a case where the blocking migrated from 160 to 150 so that is interesting.  That month also had tanked NAO which is now forecast to be a big feature for week two.

That was one of two winters that a short lived COOP station very close to my location recorded data for. Luckily it was a great winter!

[RentonHill]

Looks like an even bigger spread for 850s on 12z EPS vs 06z. For just 4 days out

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Looks like an even bigger spread for 850s on 12z EPS vs 06z. For just 4 days out

Extraordinary uncertainty.  We have so many chances in such an uncertain situation coming up.  I like our chances.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Looks like an even bigger spread for 850s on 12z EPS vs 06z. For just 4 days out

Strength and positioning problems abound for midweek.  Models are all struggling as they should be.  

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Extraordinary uncertainty.  We have so many chances in such an uncertain situation coming up.  I like our chances.

Yes, and I would love to see what a -11 850 temp in Renton would do for the Puget Sound.

[AlTahoe]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It can happen.  I don't think Jan 1969 was all that wet though.

Jet stream was pointed over the Central and Southern Sierra. one storm dropped 12' of snow in 2 days in the Southern Sierra. 

[Meatyorologist]

I have a feeling the details will all come together eventually. Give it time!

[Hawksfan2008]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Extraordinary uncertainty.  We have so many chances in such an uncertain situation coming up.  I like our chances.

Appreciate your optimism! Helps balance out the doom and gloom in here  

[awright-31]

45 with sunbreaks this morning. Balmy.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I have a feeling the details will all come together eventually. Give it time!

jAnUaRy

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Is -NAO good or bad for us?

Good. -NAO tends to occur in tandem with -PNA.

Particularly good for precip/storminess. Less of a N/S gradient.

[RentonHill]

EPS still got a decent amount of dawgs in there. But also lots of dawg turds so 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Good (all else being equal).

is this better or worse than Verbatim?

[joelgombiner]

Beautiful day with lots of sun in Seattle, a nice CZ in the north sound under NW flow, and unstable air moving in offshore. 

[Phil]

 

[Deweydog]

Just now, Phil said:

 

My daughter just walked in the room and said ALMOST exactly the same thing.

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS still got a decent amount of dawgs in there. But also lots of dawg turds so 

[snow_wizard]

I've been so focused on the further out stuff I failed to notice there is going to be a C-Zone here tonight according to the ECMWF.  Even shows snow with it.  Looks like a nice crisp N wind kind of day tomorrow.