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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

Iceresistance

By Iceresistance
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by smerfylicious,

A nice day for a newborn. Here's bellevue from a delivery room. I'll keep yall posted

Congrats!!!

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Posted by SouthHillJimmy,

Long time lurker here, decided to make an account and interact. This week will definitely be one hell of a ride!

Welcome Jimmy!

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

That winter had its moments here.  Besides the excellent Nov and Feb events we narrowly missed getting crushed in January.  This one looks like a once in decade winter for blocking.  We shall see I guess.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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smerfylicious
smerfylicious

A nice day for a newborn. Here's bellevue from a delivery room. I'll keep yall posted

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

Ummm we had our first freeze… School delay, and 1.5” of snow. 

MossMan
MossMan

Phantom snow has begun! 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Good. -NAO tends to occur in tandem with -PNA.

Particularly good for precip/storminess. Less of a N/S gradient.

Yeah....I believed the myth of -NAO being bad for us for a long time.  Maybe there was just a run of winters where that happened to be true and a lot of people kind of got the wrong idea.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Winterdog Veteran

Winterdog

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be shocked if you only get 2 inches.  I mean really astounded.

The EPS is only showing 2" but the OP is showing more than 12".  The GFS shows higher totals but it's the GFS.  Opportunities galore for the next couple weeks.

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MWG Mentor

MWG

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Maybe 

Maybe not

Maybe

Maybe not

Maybe 

Maybe not

Maybe

Maybe not 

Maybe 

Maybe not 

Maybe 

Maybe not

Maybe

Maybe not

Time will tell 

I think the mood of the forums it's spreading to the NWS 🤣

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....I believed the myth of -NAO being bad for us for a long time.  Maybe there was just a run of winters where that happened to be true and a lot of people kind of got the wrong idea.

It's definitely not bad for the PNW, but it's also debatable how good it is. Lots of big events/winters that did not have much -NAO.

A forum for the end of the world.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Obviously it's just weather.com but this would be nice

Screenshot_20221127_133721_Firefox.jpg

Rainy and cloudy on Wednesday with a low of 21.    Makes perfect sense.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Obviously it's just weather.com but this would be nice

Screenshot_20221127_133721_Firefox.jpg

I’ve noticed weather.com has been trending colder for that time period.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

Had a very nice ice pellet shower that started turning everything white about an hour ago when I was out blowing. That was fun! 
And still powerless! The PUD must only have a holiday skeleton crew working this weekend. Over 12hrs now. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Chewbacca Defense Grand Master

Chewbacca Defense

Posted
Posted

Winter Weather advisory for tomorrow:

  

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one
inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Lowlands of western Whatcom County, including Point
Roberts, Lummi Island, Bellingham, and Sumas, Lowlands of
western Skagit County, including Cypress Island, Guemes
Island, Anacortes, Mount Vernon, and La Conner and Everett and
vicinity, including Stanwood, Marysville, and Mountlake
Terrace.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Scattered snow showers tonight into Monday
morning. Showers may be heavy at times decreasing visibility.

 

 

Wind advisory too:

  

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...San Juan County and Western Whatcom County.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
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Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station:  https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
Posted

18z GFS is a little farther south with the low Tuesday night - Wednesday.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Nov1985 Mentor

Nov1985

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Thunderstorm juuust north of Monroe right now. Really booming 💥 

 

Edit: and now it's hailing! Unexpected!

I saw that moving in while in Snohomish a bit ago. Huge dark clouds. Some ice coming down in the sun on the windshield on the edge of the clouds where I was. 

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Nov1985 Mentor

Nov1985

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Hmmmm

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

That GFS snow map has been pretty consistent for a couple days now for Puget Sound area. Just the temps keep rising a degree or two each day in just about every model run. Big accumulations with heavy wet snow in borderline conditions is plausible and typical for marginal events like the upcoming week. Mid-30s for everyone, forever!

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SnarkyGoblin Grand Master

SnarkyGoblin

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

That GFS snow map has been pretty consistent for a couple days now for Puget Sound area. Just the temps keep rising a degree or two each day in just about every model run. Big accumulations with heavy wet snow in borderline conditions is plausible and typical for marginal events like the upcoming week. Mid-30s for everyone, forever!

Have you seen the last 2 runs?  The temps are STILL ridiculous.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I think a GFS / ECMWF compromise is going to happen.  Interestingly the models seem to be in excellent on the dry / cold pattern for week 2 now.  Nothing resembling normal anywhere in sight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Have you seen the last 2 runs?  The temps are STILL ridiculous.

Yeah...if anything this GFS run is colder than the 12z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

All in all, I'm more excited than anything about the way this is looking.  Tons of chances going forward and no typical crap pattern anywhere in sight.  The first third of December is going to be cold after the coldest November at least since 1993.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Uncle sobered up and removed the crazy arctic outbreak around days 8-10. 

It seems like we are getting close to a model consensus of no arctic outbreak from this pattern. 

Cold though.  Don't rule out that chance in week two.  A lot of EPS ensemble members have been really cold with that.  We are going to have numerous chances to deliver some truly cold air.  BTW the 0z ECMWF had very cold air spilling into WA at the end of the run as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Kolk1604 Grand Master

Kolk1604

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Uncle sobered up and removed the crazy arctic outbreak around days 8-10. 

It seems like we are getting close to a model consensus of no arctic outbreak from this pattern. 

I'm just happy it's still there on the Euro. Plenty of arctic air building in BC. Hoping a polar lobe will swing our way in future rubs. It's close 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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