November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Winterdog said:

Where do apps get their data?  A direct drop from the GFS, the coldest model, doesn't show anything close to what my Davis app shows.  It just updated to 22 deg tonight and tomorrow night and low to mid-thirties for highs until Sunday where it shows a high of 30 and a low of 13 with snow each day until Friday.  I don't expect an answer but I always figured they just had an algorithm that translated the model of choice or maybe a blend of a couple models.  The generated forecasts are often ridiculous.

I feel like some of those apps treat the PNW like its Minnesota.  

[GHweatherChris]

35 here, moderate rain with an occasional positive splat of frozen precip of some sort.

[DeepFriedEgg]

3 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Where do apps get their data?  A direct drop from the GFS, the coldest model, doesn't show anything close to what my Davis app shows.  It just updated to 22 deg tonight and tomorrow night and low to mid-thirties for highs until Sunday where it shows a high of 30 and a low of 13 with snow each day until Friday.  I don't expect an answer but I always figured they just had an algorithm that translated the model of choice or maybe a blend of a couple models.  The generated forecasts are often ridiculous.

I think they just use a combination of the GEFS, EPS and other ensembles with maybe some input from operational. They could also just be slow to update.

 

But yeah that one just seems like it chooses the coldest ensemble member lmao.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Where do apps get their data?  A direct drop from the GFS, the coldest model, doesn't show anything close to what my Davis app shows.  It just updated to 22 deg tonight and tomorrow night and low to mid-thirties for highs until Sunday where it shows a high of 30 and a low of 13 with snow each day until Friday.  I don't expect an answer but I always figured they just had an algorithm that translated the model of choice or maybe a blend of a couple models.  The generated forecasts are often ridiculous.

Kevin Martin

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

35 here, moderate rain with an occasional positive splat of frozen precip of some sort.

There’s some pretty decent cells out offshore right now! 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Where do apps get their data?  A direct drop from the GFS, the coldest model, doesn't show anything close to what my Davis app shows.  It just updated to 22 deg tonight and tomorrow night and low to mid-thirties for highs until Sunday where it shows a high of 30 and a low of 13 with snow each day until Friday.  I don't expect an answer but I always figured they just had an algorithm that translated the model of choice or maybe a blend of a couple models.  The generated forecasts are often ridiculous.

im thinking its a blend of ensembles or something similar to the NBM

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m sure Mossman will have 6 inches by the morning. Than his power will go out

Will probably only take a half inch for my power to go out. I have used 30 gallons of gas so for in November using my generator. I need to treat the old bruiser to an oil change soon. 

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s some pretty decent cells out offshore right now! 

I think there will be some surprises the next 5 days, some good ones for some.

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Kevin Martin

A lot of the new members probably have no idea who that beautiful person is. 

[Nov1985]

5 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Where do apps get their data?  A direct drop from the GFS, the coldest model, doesn't show anything close to what my Davis app shows.  It just updated to 22 deg tonight and tomorrow night and low to mid-thirties for highs until Sunday where it shows a high of 30 and a low of 13 with snow each day until Friday.  I don't expect an answer but I always figured they just had an algorithm that translated the model of choice or maybe a blend of a couple models.  The generated forecasts are often ridiculous.

Unless it's for agricultural purposes, most apps and companies use the the lowest bidder. From a project in my day job, I know IBM has been gaining market share since acquiring WU. https://datarade.ai/top-lists/top-weather-data-providers

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

A lot of the new members probably have no idea who that beautiful person is. 

Legend!!

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I think there will be some surprises the next 5 days, some good ones for some.

Some places are gonna see snow in the next few days. We’ve still got a shot overnight Tuesday but more likely it doesn’t happen based on recent trends. 

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Unless it's for agricultural purposes, most apps and companies use the the lowest bidder. From a project in my day job, I know IBM has been gaining market share since acquiring WU. https://datarade.ai/top-lists/top-weather-data-providers

It sounds like some of the providers actually have their own models.  I would think the capabilities of a model generated by a private weather service company would be vastly inferior to any of the top public models out there.  I'll try to find out more about this.  Thanks for the reply

[Phishy Wx]

if warm nose on euro is right, this is turning into a slop fest even in Spokane area for the main event on Wednesday > Thursday.  lol. Historic snowstorm to slopfest.  King gunna King

[Terreboner]

Rod-stradamus has spoken.

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

It sounds like some of the providers actually have their own models.  I would think the capabilities of a model generated by a private weather service company would be vastly inferior to any of the top public models out there.  I'll try to find out more about this.  Thanks for the reply

they probably just aggregate data from existing models, maybe add a proprietary blend to it if they have something in house

[Winterdog]

A nice slug of moisture moving down the Straights now heading for Mossman and me.  37 degrees

[Skagit Weather]

There is a large and intense hunk of moisture that looks like it will just skirt to my south over the next hour or so. Models still are undecided whether it's going to snow up here tonight, but with a temperature of 43F currently, 850mb temps around -5C and 925mb temps hovering right at 0C, I'm suspicious. I guess if it hangs around long enough it will bring the temp down, but if it was anything frozen it would more likely be hail than snow.

It could be quite good for Randy in the coming hours though.

[bainbridgekid]

High res NAM looking snowy Tuesday night.

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

The Seahawks defense and this uncontrollable cough that I am so done with has apparently put me in a sour mood. At least we got power back after 14 hours. 

Bro i feel all of that 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

High res NAM.

A lovely shade of lavender with an 8.4 on it. Lock it in!

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

High res NAM looking snowy Tuesday night.

Wow that’s nice. A bit skeptical. 

[North_County]

4 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Seattle north looks good

Bham goes crazy 

Lol. I may need to find my shovel.

[The Winter Warlock]

What my wife thinks of all of us…

[Meatyorologist]

00z NAM is more south with the low.

[Gradient Keeper]

It seems the next 5-6 days are a lock. We're not going to see arctic air in PDX metro. Perhaps Everett north. As long as the overall blocking theme continues and the bitter air is going nowhere up north, anything is possible after Day 5 in my opinion.

00z GFS in 22 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS coming in half an hour.

[Meatyorologist]

00z ICON is also a jump south

[Weiner Warrior]

NAM IS KING

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z NAM is more south with the low.

 

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

00z ICON is also a jump south

Any trends in a better placement no matter what the model is a good sign. 

[Weiner Warrior]

ICON too

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z ICON is also a jump south

Quite a bit east by Wednesday...

[Bueryan]

I know this isn't the forum for it, but all that cold air freezing ponds just north of us should make the duck hunting/birdwatching pretty remarkable in our area.

[Guest administrator]

27 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

It sounds like some of the providers actually have their own models.  I would think the capabilities of a model generated by a private weather service company would be vastly inferior to any of the top public models out there.  I'll try to find out more about this.  Thanks for the reply

For phone apps, usually it’s IBM or a government service, but data that’s an hour or two old. There is also open weather where they build their own data set and dark sky which is now just weatherkit by Apple. 

[Meatyorologist]

If things line up correctly, Tuesday evening has the potential to be something really special. A good slug of heavy precipitation coinciding with offshore gradients. Only problem is that's when the warm LLJ really gets cranking, so precip type will be really dependent on the depth of Cascade gap outflow. Right now it's highly variable. And to be honest I have no idea. I really don't. It's combination of our modeling usually being too overzealous with both outflow AND cold air scouring. How wrong is it? Which factor will take over???

I really do not envy the folks at Sandpoint right now.

[TT-SEA]

ICON is just faster too... this is the period to watch very early Wednesday morning and the front is about 6 hours faster on this run.

 

[Brennan]

Kind of feels like Leavenworth would have been the right move.

[Nov1985]

23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

High res NAM looking snowy Tuesday night.

For this event, the "snow depth" map is best. Lots of melting after the 1am peak. 

[Guest administrator]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

The Seahawks defense and this uncontrollable cough that I am so done with has apparently put me in a sour mood. At least we got power back after 14 hours. 

Let the hate flow through you.

Normal people hate snow. Normal people want a mild and uneventful winter. Most of America hates the Seahawks, the most overrated team in the NFL and it is unfair to the rest of the league that players have to travel to a stadium where the weather is bad to play a team that is bad. Most of America wants the Seahawks to relocate to a real American state, like Texas or Florida.

Feels good to spew. Go 49ers!

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, administrator said:

Let the hate flow through you.

Normal people hate snow. Normal people want a mild and uneventful winter. Most of America hates the Seahawks, the most overrated team in the NFL and it is unfair to the rest of the league that players have to travel to a stadium where the weather is bad to play a team that is bad. Most of America wants the Seahawks to relocate to a real American state, like Texas or Florida.

Feels good to spew. Go 49ers!

Patriots too